A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
A twenty year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. Based on the study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future. Making such a prediction with incomplete information about the study is not justified. There are various loopholes to the information provided and more substantial data is required to come to any conclusions about the study.
First off, the information does not provide any sample size of the study participants. It could be possible that the research concerned as less as two residents. Generalizing the results of a research with that small a sample size is highly questionable. Also there is no clear mention of the percentage reduction in residents suffering from headache by consumption of Salicylates. It simply states that a steady decline in average number of headaches was reported. It absolutely is not sound to base our results on such ambiguous information.
There is also a possibility that a number of headaches go unreported or that the reduction in the number of headaches is due to consumption of aspirin or other easily available related drug and not Salicylates as claimed by the researchers. Before coming to any conclusion one make take all possible parameters into account. This weakens aforementioned prediction.
Another major flaw in the drawn conclusion is that the long term effects of Salicylates are not spoken of. It may be possible that in a long run the chemical renders futile to headaches and instead have some severe side effects. The health experts failed to take that into consideration when making predictions about the residents of Mentia and their headache.
To sum up, the prophecy of the health experts is based on cryptic knowledge about the study. Had the study stated the above mentioned points, the forecast of the specialists could be rendered appropriate.
argument 1 -- not OK. sample size is not a loophole. suggested: Salicylates may not have the same effect as aspirin in treating headaches although they are of the same chemical family.
argument 2 -- OK
better:
Other factors may also lead to the decline in the number of headaches in the study mentioned above.
The author does not inform us what fraction of foods consumed by citizens of Mentia contains salicylates, and how many of the citizens prefer such kind of foods.
The author fails to consider factors other than food, such as environment, lifestyle, etc. that may result in the increase in the number of headaches suffered by citizens of Mentia would increase.
argument 3 -- not OK.
suggested:
Granted that salicylates are effective in treating headaches, we cannot hastily infer that they would also be effective in preventing headaches.
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