The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client."Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienc

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The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.

"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.

The letter from a investment consulting company suggests that given the fact that the period of winter seems longer and people build more houses in the region, investors need to invest on Consoliated industries since the retail of home heating oil is involved, which is the necessarties for the residents in nothern United States. The argument seems to be convincing and riveting in a cursory reading, but an in-depth analysis reveals several logical fallacies and loopholes that have rendered it untentable.

First, the author, on the basis of the information provided by climate forecasters, argue that the similar weather pattern will repeat in the following few years. However,oftentimes,the report from forecaster is inaccurate and particularly for the long-term prediction. The author need to provide the information whether the report is conducted for several forecasters or the large group discussion. As far as technology concerned, two or three climate forecasters cannot presage accurate reports due to the subjective opinion, which usually ignore inconsequential but essential details. So solely reply on the single forecaster report will result in unpredicable consequence.

Second, the argument assumes that many new homes have been built is equivalent to more people will demand the heating service, which will result in the increase on the consumption of heating oil. Yet author does not provide any convincing evidence that sales of heating oil will be at the rate of upswing as a result of more homes in the region. The author should conduct a survey on those people living in the newly built house to see whether they intend to use the heating. It is likely that people who lived in the new house do not need heating or they are not at home most of time.

Third, Consolidated Industries is a large sector, but home heating oil is just small business, which is part of the industry. It is too impetuous to invest in the market before more warrated information and evidence present. The author need to do more research on the explicit relation between the indurstry and the home heating oil. Assumeing that the forecast is accurate, if the relation was extrincit, investors would not have any and significant profits, which invalidate the argument.

In conclusion, the author's inference solely rely on the unproven assumptions and unconvincing evidence, which could be interpreted on the other way around and weaken the argument.To make the recommendation more reliable, it is categorical that the argument is at presence of justified evidence and information other than unwarranted assumptions.

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Average: 8.5 (2 votes)
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Sentence: The letter from a investment consulting company suggests that given the fact that the period of winter seems longer and people build more houses in the region, investors need to invest on Consoliated industries since the retail of home heating oil is involved, which is the necessarties for the residents in nothern United States.
Description: The fragment that given the is rare
Suggestion: Possible agreement error: Replace given with verb, base: uninflected present, imperative or infinitive

Sentence: The letter from a investment consulting company suggests that given the fact that the period of winter seems longer and people build more houses in the region, investors need to invest on Consoliated industries since the retail of home heating oil is involved, which is the necessarties for the residents in nothern United States.
Error: necessarties Suggestion: necessaries
Error: nothern Suggestion: northern

Sentence: The argument seems to be convincing and riveting in a cursory reading, but an in-depth analysis reveals several logical fallacies and loopholes that have rendered it untentable.
Error: untentable Suggestion: untenable

Sentence: So solely reply on the single forecaster report will result in unpredicable consequence.
Error: unpredicable Suggestion: unpredictable

Sentence: It is too impetuous to invest in the market before more warrated information and evidence present.
Error: warrated Suggestion: warranted

Sentence: The author need to do more research on the explicit relation between the indurstry and the home heating oil.
Error: indurstry Suggestion: industry

Sentence: Assumeing that the forecast is accurate, if the relation was extrincit, investors would not have any and significant profits, which invalidate the argument.
Error: extrincit Suggestion: extinct

flaws:
No. of Spelling Errors: 7 2

Attribute Value Ideal
Score: 5.0 out of 6
Category: Very Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 1 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 7 2
No. of Sentences: 16 15
No. of Words: 420 350
No. of Characters: 2155 1500
No. of Different Words: 214 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.527 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.131 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.811 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 171 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 126 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 88 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 57 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 26.25 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 11.2 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.625 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.332 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.58 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.064 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5