The following appeared in a memorandum from the general manager of KNOW radio station. "Several factors indicate that radio station KNOW should shift its programming from rock-and-roll music to a continuous news format. Consider, for example, the number

This memo recommends that KNOW radio station shift from rock-and-roll (R&R) music programming to all-news programming. To support this recommendation the manager points out that the number of KNOW listeners is decreasing while the number of older people in KNOW's listening area is increasing. The manager also points out that area sales of music recordings are in decline, and that a recent survey suggests that local residents are becoming better informed about politics. Finally, the manager cites the success of all-news stations in nearby cities. Careful scrutiny of the manager's argument reveals several unproven assumptions, which render it unconvincing.

First, the manager unfairly assumes that the decline in the number of KNOW listeners is attributable to the station's current format. Perhaps the decline is due instead to KNOW's specific mix of R&R music, or to transmission problems at the station. Without ruling out these and other feasible reasons for the decline, the manager cannot convince me that changing the format would reverse the trend.

Secondly, the manager's assumption that older people favor all-news programming is unsupported. Perhaps KNOW listeners are dedicated R&R fans who will continue to prefer this type of programming as they grow older. Or perhaps as KNOW's regular audience ages it will prefer a mix of R&R and news programming--rather than one format to the total exclusion of the other. Besides, the number of young people in the listening area might be increasing as well. In short, the mere fact that the number of older people in KNOW's listening area is increasing suggests nothing about KNOW's best programming strategy.

Thirdly, a decrease in local music recording sales is scant evidence that KNOW should eschew music in favor of an all-news format. Although overall music sales are in decline, perhaps sales of R&R recordings are actually increasing while sales of all other types of music recordings are decreasing. For that matter, perhaps people who buy music recordings are generally not the same people who listen to music on the radio. Either scenario, if true, would seriously undermine the manager's contention that KNOW should discontinue R&R programming.

Fourth, it is unfair to conclude from one survey suggesting that local residents are becoming better informed about politics that they are becoming less interested in listening to R&R music, or that they are becoming more interested in listening to news. After all, news embraces many topics in addition to politics. Besides, there is no reason why people interested in politics cannot also be interested in listening to R&R music. Moreover, a single survey taken just prior to an election is poor evidence that local residents' piqued interest in politics is sustainable.

Finally, it is unwarranted to infer from the success of all-news stations in nearby dries that KNOW will also succeed by following the same format. Those stations might owe their success to their powerful transmitters, popular newscasters, or other factors. Besides, the very success of these stations suggests that the area's radio listeners might favor those well-established news providers over the fledgling all-news KNOW.

In sum, the manager's evidence accomplishes little toward supporting the manager's argument for the proposed format shift. To further bolster the argument the manager must provide better evidence, perhaps by way of a reliable survey, that people within KNOW's listening area are becoming more interested in news and less interested in R&R music--or any other kind of music. The manager must also show that an all-news format would be more popular than a mixed format of music and news, and that a significant number of people would prefer KNOW's all-news programming over that of other stations in the listening area.