by Bill McBride on 5/12/2014 09:39:00 AM
From the MBA: Applications for New Home Purchases Increased in April 2014
The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for March 2014 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased by 5 percent relative to the previous month. This change does not include any adjustment for typical seasonal patterns.
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The MBA estimate of new single-family home sales were running at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 419,000 units in April 2014, based on data from the BAS. The new home sales estimate is derived using mortgage application information from the BAS, as well as assumptions regarding market coverage and other factors. The BAS market coverage was rebenchmarked this month to an estimate of over 30 percent of annual sales volume based on data from the Census Bureau.The seasonally adjusted estimate for April is an increase of five percent from the revised March pace of 400,000 units.
A couple of comments:
1) So far the MBA Builder survey hasn't been helpful in predicting Census Bureau reports. As an example, last month the MBA estimated March new home sales at 479,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR), and the Census Bureau reported sales of 384,000 SAAR. Not close.
2) Now the MBA has increased market coverage, so maybe the survey will be more useful. A 419,000 SAAR would be up from March, but down from 446,000 in April 2013.