The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client. “Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
The writer of this analytical piece has drawn the optimistic conclusion, from disjointed and incomplete data, that in the northeastern United States oil demand will increase therefore it's good to invest in Consolidated Industries.
He begins with a statement that homes in northeastern "traditionally" used oil as their major fuel for heating. Here, it's possible that homes were used the oil as fuel but in modern technology there are using something else . Hence, we needs evidence to prove that the homes are still using the oil as their major fuel for heating. Cosequently, if the majority homes are shifted to the other technology for heating than writer can't justify his optimistic conclusion. Futhermore, writer stated that last year region experience only twenty days below the average temprature. Here, writer assumes that in the past there were less days cold than the present. We needs the evidence reagarding number of cold in past and presence. If the number of cold days comared to past doesn't increase than there is no point of increasing demads of the oil. Consequently, people will use the same amount of oil as they were using in the past, which diminish the witer's optimistic conclusion. Also, writer failed to provide the average-temprature, if the average tempratue is too high and temprature below it isn't cold enough than people will not use the heating. Hence, without having the evidence of the temprature data writer can't predict that people will use the oil heating and it will increase the demads for oil.
While mentioning the weather forcasters prediction writer mistakenly diminish his position. As the weather forcasters predict the weather pattern will continue for several more year, we can easily conclude that there will be the same number of days cold in future. Hence, the demands for the oil in future will be same as the present and will not increase as the writer predicted. Also, writer assumes that because of the new homes developments demads of the oil will increase. Here, writer failed to provide any evidence that suggest that this homes will uses the oil as a fuel for the heating system. It's possible that all this homes are developed using the new technology for heating and will not use the traditional heating system using oil. Hence, the demands of the oil will remain the same as it was and if it's true than writer's conclusion will fall apart. Also, there is no statistical data given regarding the new homes. Writer assumes that the total number of the new homes is big enough to increase the demads. If the total number of new homes is just a little fraction of total number of old homes than the increase isn't significant enough to count. Hence, the demads coming from new homes isn't significant enough to jump on the conclusion that it's good to invest in Consolidation Industries.
In genereal, it may be said that the writer has failed to make a convincing argument beacuse of the complete absence of the evidence needed. No convincing reasoning is given. The argument ends with an entirely unjustified optimistic conclusion based on wishy-washy observation that are likely to be incorrect.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 26 15
No. of Words: 532 350
No. of Characters: 2581 1500
No. of Different Words: 199 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.803 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.852 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.603 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 177 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 120 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 85 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 57 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 20.462 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 6.482 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.615 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.331 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.463 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.172 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 4 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 234, Rule ID: COMMA_PARENTHESIS_WHITESPACE
Message: Don't put a space before the full stop
Suggestion: .
...echnology there are using something else . Hence, we needs evidence to prove that ...
^^
Line 3, column 247, Rule ID: NON3PRS_VERB[2]
Message: The pronoun 'we' must be used with a non-third-person form of a verb: 'need'
Suggestion: need
...re are using something else . Hence, we needs evidence to prove that the homes are st...
^^^^^
Line 3, column 438, Rule ID: CANT[1]
Message: Did you mean 'can't' or 'cannot'?
Suggestion: can't; cannot
...ther technology for heating than writer cant justify his optimistic conclusion. Futh...
^^^^
Line 3, column 633, Rule ID: FEWER_LESS[2]
Message: Did you mean 'fewer'? The noun days is countable.
Suggestion: fewer
...ter assumes that in the past there were less days cold than the present. We needs th...
^^^^
Line 3, column 669, Rule ID: NON3PRS_VERB[2]
Message: The pronoun 'We' must be used with a non-third-person form of a verb: 'need'
Suggestion: need
...ere less days cold than the present. We needs the evidence reagarding number of cold ...
^^^^^
Line 3, column 736, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...ng number of cold in past and presence. If the number of cold days comared to past...
^^
Line 3, column 779, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: doesn't
...the number of cold days comared to past doesnt increase than there is no point of incr...
^^^^^^
Line 3, column 1102, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: isn't
...tue is too high and temprature below it isnt cold enough than people will not use th...
^^^^
Line 3, column 1222, Rule ID: CANT[1]
Message: Did you mean 'can't' or 'cannot'?
Suggestion: can't; cannot
... evidence of the temprature data writer cant predict that people will use the oil he...
^^^^
Line 5, column 1, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “While” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...t will increase the demads for oil. While mentioning the weather forcasters predi...
^^^^^
Line 5, column 255, Rule ID: IN_PAST[1]
Message: Did you mean: 'in the future'?
Suggestion: in the future
...re will be the same number of days cold in future. Hence, the demands for the oil in futu...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 557, Rule ID: DID_BASEFORM[1]
Message: The verb 'will' requires the base form of the verb: 'use'
Suggestion: use
...dence that suggest that this homes will uses the oil as a fuel for the heating syste...
^^^^
Line 5, column 950, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...rding the new homes. Writer assumes that the total number of the new homes is big...
^^
Line 5, column 1024, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...s is big enough to increase the demads. If the total number of new homes is just a...
^^
Line 5, column 1130, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: isn't
...l number of old homes than the increase isnt significant enough to count. Hence, the...
^^^^
Line 5, column 1204, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: isn't
...Hence, the demads coming from new homes isnt significant enough to jump on the concl...
^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, consequently, hence, if, may, regarding, so, still, therefore, while
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 19.0 19.6327345309 97% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 16.0 12.9520958084 124% => OK
Conjunction : 8.0 11.1786427146 72% => OK
Relative clauses : 17.0 13.6137724551 125% => OK
Pronoun: 37.0 28.8173652695 128% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 54.0 55.5748502994 97% => OK
Nominalization: 16.0 16.3942115768 98% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2640.0 2260.96107784 117% => OK
No of words: 528.0 441.139720559 120% => OK
Chars per words: 5.0 5.12650576532 98% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.79356345386 4.56307096286 105% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.78479998169 2.78398813304 100% => OK
Unique words: 206.0 204.123752495 101% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.390151515152 0.468620217663 83% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 837.0 705.55239521 119% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 8.0 4.96107784431 161% => OK
Article: 5.0 8.76447105788 57% => OK
Subordination: 6.0 2.70958083832 221% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 26.0 19.7664670659 132% => OK
Sentence length: 20.0 22.8473053892 88% => OK
Sentence length SD: 38.3889314669 57.8364921388 66% => OK
Chars per sentence: 101.538461538 119.503703932 85% => OK
Words per sentence: 20.3076923077 23.324526521 87% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.03846153846 5.70786347227 53% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 4.0 5.15768463074 78% => More paragraphs wanted.
Language errors: 16.0 5.25449101796 305% => Less language errors wanted.
Sentences with positive sentiment : 12.0 8.20758483034 146% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.88822355289 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.246657952041 0.218282227539 113% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0794559457491 0.0743258471296 107% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0711871380646 0.0701772020484 101% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.137217292915 0.128457276422 107% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.094983759068 0.0628817314937 151% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.3 14.3799401198 86% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 51.18 48.3550499002 106% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.72 12.5979740519 93% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.68 8.32208582834 92% => OK
difficult_words: 102.0 98.500998004 104% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.5 12.3882235529 93% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.0 11.1389221557 90% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.