The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The presumption that demand in heating oil will increase in the near future for northeastern United States may seem true at first glance. The writer makes a valid argument, one that would be correct if its premises were true. However conclusion drawn in the memo relies on assumptions for which there is no clear evidence.
First, the memo assumes that an increase in the population will directly increase the amount of oil needed for oil. To be able to reach such a sharp conclusion, one must have enough information to determine the dynamics of the society. Is there a consistent increase tendency in the population of the region in recent years? It is quite natural that while some babies are being born, some other people are migrating for education, living or other reasons. Did the writer take that fact into consideration? How can he be so sure that people are going to continue living in the same cities? For example, it is fact that many people are leaving Midwest region for good to have a better future for their children. As seen, it may be misleading to assume that population is going to increase in the region.
Secondly, the writer forgets to mention alternative heating sources. We live in a world that the only thing that does not change is the change itself. While people were using coal a couple of years ago, the number of buildings using coal nowadays is scanty. Moreover, with the increasing menace of climate change, people are very sceptic about the fossil fuels anymore. Thus, the future of oil industry is so questionable that it was never in such a questionable period. There are many ways to produce energy for heating for the buildings anymore, electricity, wind, power plants etc. These are all under the hands of people waiting to serve the needs of them. Hence, companies in oil industry should worry about this situation.
Thirdly, the writer presumes that newly built apartments will require oil for heating, which falls short describing the newly trends of the construction industry. For example, most of the buildings in downtown areas are built with a perfect insulation technology that buildings only need an ac to be able to keep people warm. When the technology is so determinant in our every aspect of lives, the writer of the memo should consider it when it comes to projections. This will definitely affect the future of oil. In addition, new houses are usually smaller than previous ones, which make them more energy efficient, thus need less oil.
Overall, the board of the company may decide to invest according to the plan drawn in the memo. However, writer's arguments leave many unanswered questions and is not likely to persuade significantly the board.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 6 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 4 2
No. of Sentences: 25 15 dzc
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 18.4 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 5.906 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.76 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.262 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.463 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.064 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 227, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: However,
...d be correct if its premises were true. However conclusion drawn in the memo relies on ...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
first, hence, however, if, may, moreover, second, secondly, so, third, thirdly, thus, while, for example, in addition
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 28.0 19.6327345309 143% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 14.0 12.9520958084 108% => OK
Conjunction : 2.0 11.1786427146 18% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 18.0 13.6137724551 132% => OK
Pronoun: 30.0 28.8173652695 104% => OK
Preposition: 57.0 55.5748502994 103% => OK
Nominalization: 14.0 16.3942115768 85% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2258.0 2260.96107784 100% => OK
No of words: 460.0 441.139720559 104% => OK
Chars per words: 4.90869565217 5.12650576532 96% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.6311565067 4.56307096286 101% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.55979530136 2.78398813304 92% => OK
Unique words: 249.0 204.123752495 122% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.541304347826 0.468620217663 116% => OK
syllable_count: 708.3 705.55239521 100% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 6.0 4.96107784431 121% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 26.0 19.7664670659 132% => OK
Sentence length: 17.0 22.8473053892 74% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 29.4875362297 57.8364921388 51% => The essay contains lots of sentences with the similar length. More sentence varieties wanted.
Chars per sentence: 86.8461538462 119.503703932 73% => OK
Words per sentence: 17.6923076923 23.324526521 76% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.5 5.70786347227 79% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 1.0 5.25449101796 19% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 15.0 8.20758483034 183% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.88822355289 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.197808617015 0.218282227539 91% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0491259799483 0.0743258471296 66% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0478878431442 0.0701772020484 68% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.109767318036 0.128457276422 85% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0199201878889 0.0628817314937 32% => Paragraphs are similar to each other. Some content may get duplicated or it is not exactly right on the topic.
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 10.5 14.3799401198 73% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 62.68 48.3550499002 130% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 8.7 12.197005988 71% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 10.9 12.5979740519 87% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.32 8.32208582834 100% => OK
difficult_words: 112.0 98.500998004 114% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 7.5 12.3882235529 61% => OK
gunning_fog: 8.8 11.1389221557 79% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.