(Bloomberg) -- After rising from an anti-tax protest party in the 1970s to an anti-immigration power broker in the 2000s, the Danish People’s Party now expects it will be “begged” to join a government for the first time.
Polls show the party is running neck-and-neck with the more established Social Democrats and Liberal Party ahead of elections that need to be held by September.
To join a coalition the party only demands: resurrect border controls and exit the European Union’s non-visa pact. The group will also hear out the other parties on their plans for tightening immigration, Deputy Chairman Soeren Espersen said in an interview this month.
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“I don’t know what will happen if we become the biggest party,” the 61-year-old lawmaker said in an interview at his house outside Naestved, in rural Zealand. “It’s a luxury problem we’ll have to solve.”
Its ascent comes after years of influencing immigration policies from its position in parliament and amid a rising tide of support for nationalist parties across Europe such as France’s Nationalist Front and the U.K. Independence Party. In Scandinavia, the Sweden Democrats became the third largest in September’s election while the Progress Party is already part of the government in Norway.
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Economic malaise and high unemployment have shifted Europe’s political landscape as recent terror attacks further stoke resentment. A Danish-born Muslim last month killed two people and wounded four police officers in an attack on a free-speech event and a Synagogue. That came less than a month after radicalized French nationals killed 17 people in Paris.
Immigration is bound to stay front-and-center for voters in the campaign, which will benefit the Danish People’s Party and the Liberals in their attempts to oust Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt’s Social Democratic-led government, according to Rune Stubager, an associate professor of political science at Aarhus University.
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“Danes consider the right-wing to be better at handling crime and immigration,” Stubager said in a telephone interview. “It’ll provide them with a solid agenda through the election.”
Together with former Liberal Prime Minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen, and his successor Lars Loekke Rasmussen, the Danish People’s Party last decade pushed through legislation that curbed the freedom of Danes to marry and live with non-Danes. Some of those policies have since been reversed by the Social Democrat-led coalition that gained power since 2011.
Full restrictions will now need to be reinstated to ensure Denmark can protect itself, Espersen said.
“The election will be about immigration,” Alice Snitker, a 63-year-old assistant nurse, said while having lunch at a hot dog stand during a March 20 visit to Copenhagen.
The resident of Als, an island near the Danish-German border, said she plans to start voting Danish People’s Party after the government closed down barracks and a hospital in her community and now uses vacant buildings to house Syrian refugees. “We’re having too many asylum seekers. Someone else has to share the burden with us,” she said.
The annual influx of immigrants rose by 20,000 since 2011 to 72,000 last year. Even so, with an immigrant population of about 9 percent, Denmark has by far the lowest level of foreigners among the Nordic countries. It has also been the slowest expanding economy in Scandinavia over the past 16 years, averaging just 1 percent per year.
Its unemployment rate is about 5 percent, far below the 8 percent rate in Sweden. Sweden’s open border policies have made it one of the main destinations for asylum seekers in Europe.
“Welfare means a lot to us, and I believe the welfare system can only really exist if you have a more or less closed society,” Espersen said.
The group says that preventing immigration will also keep out people who attempt to subvert the Danish Democratic system.
The party is looking at how it can hold on to its popularity and avoid being co-opted if in power. Norway’s Progress Party, which has been in government since 2013, has seen its support plunge in the polls after it has been forced to make compromises with coalition partners.
“If you go into a government just to be there, you’ll lose,” Espersen said. “But if they’re begging you to come in, which we believe the Liberal Party might do, you’re in a different position.”
The message of defending welfare and pulling back from EU cooperation has attracted voters, according to Stubager.
A poll of polls compiled by newspaper Berlingske shows the party may win 20.1 percent of the vote, up from 12.3 percent in 2011. The Liberals are set to win 22.3 percent, compared with 26.7 percent in the last election. The Social Democrats are polling at 23 percent, down from 24.8 percent four years ago.
“I don’t see ourselves in a government with the Social Democrats now,” Espersen said. “But if forming a government becomes muddy like it often did back in the 1980’s, I can see us going together with anybody.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Peter Levring in Copenhagen at plevring1@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jonas Bergman at jbergman@bloomberg.net Christian Wienberg
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