The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation
The adviser of the client concludes that there will be an increased demand for heating oil in the following years and investments in consolidated industries are recommended.
However, that conclusion is based on a number of inadequately supported assumptions. Without further information, regarding some questions we do not have enough evidence to determine whether the advises are valid.
Firstly, are the Waymarsh’s University predictions accurate? Will the winter be longer than usual? The adviser in the argument,prematurely assumes that the following winters will be longer and residents will have to deal with a lack of oil. However this might not be the case.Perhaps, due to global warming winter may be short or milder. If a year is different, that does not mean the ones following will be colder as well.
Secondly, will the heating systems need major changes just for some more cold days?In other words, will for real the industry need to produce more oil and start operating businesses of oil retail? It is a possibility that the heating system can provide enough heat for the whole winter and no actions need to be taken. In addition, there is a possibility that oil companies just support customers for a longer time and make profits. If either of these scenarios has merit then conclusion drawn in the original advise is significantly weakened.
In conclusion, the proposal as it stands now, is considerably flawed due to its reliance on several unanswered questions. If the proposer clarifies that winters will be colder for the future and the present heating systems do not support completely peoples’ needs than would be necessary to invest in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 3 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 1 2
No. of Sentences: 14 15
No. of Words: 290 350
No. of Characters: 1445 1500
No. of Different Words: 165 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.127 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.983 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.756 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 109 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 85 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 54 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 42 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 20.714 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 9.91 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.714 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.305 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.584 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.051 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 126, Rule ID: COMMA_PARENTHESIS_WHITESPACE
Message: Put a space after the comma
Suggestion: , prematurely
... than usual? The adviser in the argument,prematurely assumes that the following winters will...
^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 241, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: However,
...s will have to deal with a lack of oil. However this might not be the case.Perhaps, due...
^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 276, Rule ID: SENTENCE_WHITESPACE
Message: Add a space between sentences
Suggestion: Perhaps
...oil. However this might not be the case.Perhaps, due to global warming winter may be sh...
^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 415, Rule ID: COMP_THAN[3]
Message: Comparison requires 'than', not 'then' nor 'as'.
Suggestion: than
... mean the ones following will be colder as well. Secondly, will the heating syste...
^^
Line 4, column 83, Rule ID: SENTENCE_WHITESPACE
Message: Add a space between sentences
Suggestion: In
...or changes just for some more cold days?In other words, will for real the industry...
^^
Line 4, column 433, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...ers for a longer time and make profits. If either of these scenarios has merit the...
^^
Line 5, column 263, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...do not support completely peoples’ needs than would be necessary to invest in Con...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
first, firstly, however, if, may, regarding, second, secondly, so, then, well, in addition, in conclusion, in other words
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 19.0 19.6327345309 97% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 15.0 12.9520958084 116% => OK
Conjunction : 7.0 11.1786427146 63% => OK
Relative clauses : 8.0 13.6137724551 59% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 13.0 28.8173652695 45% => OK
Preposition: 27.0 55.5748502994 49% => More preposition wanted.
Nominalization: 5.0 16.3942115768 30% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1490.0 2260.96107784 66% => OK
No of words: 287.0 441.139720559 65% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.19163763066 5.12650576532 101% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.11595363751 4.56307096286 90% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.00786280365 2.78398813304 108% => OK
Unique words: 163.0 204.123752495 80% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.567944250871 0.468620217663 121% => OK
syllable_count: 467.1 705.55239521 66% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 3.0 8.76447105788 34% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 5.0 4.22255489022 118% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 14.0 19.7664670659 71% => Need more sentences. Double check the format of sentences, make sure there is a space between two sentences, or have enough periods. And also check the lengths of sentences, maybe they are too long.
Sentence length: 20.0 22.8473053892 88% => OK
Sentence length SD: 59.4292582378 57.8364921388 103% => OK
Chars per sentence: 106.428571429 119.503703932 89% => OK
Words per sentence: 20.5 23.324526521 88% => OK
Discourse Markers: 8.64285714286 5.70786347227 151% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 7.0 5.25449101796 133% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 6.0 8.20758483034 73% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 3.0 6.88822355289 44% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.18695282291 0.218282227539 86% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0626185184613 0.0743258471296 84% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0592756392072 0.0701772020484 84% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.110754801491 0.128457276422 86% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0567637095643 0.0628817314937 90% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.3 14.3799401198 92% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 51.18 48.3550499002 106% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.82 12.5979740519 102% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 9.36 8.32208582834 112% => OK
difficult_words: 86.0 98.500998004 87% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 7.0 12.3882235529 57% => Linsear_write_formula is low.
gunning_fog: 10.0 11.1389221557 90% => OK
text_standard: 10.0 11.9071856287 84% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.