Pentagon
14 July 2008
Senator Barack Obama, who will formally claim the Democratic Party'spresidential nomination next month, has been working to defend andclarify his position on Iraq in recent weeks. The effort, culminatingin a column in The New York Times, follows a statement he made July 3that caused some to believe he was trying to back off of his campaignpromise to withdraw nearly all U.S. troops from Iraq within 16 months,if he is elected president. VOA Pentagon Correspondent Al Pessin looksat Senator Obama's Iraq policy, and the controversy surrounding it.
Itall started with one word - refine. On July 3, Senator Obama toldreporters he would "refine" his Iraq policy after visiting the countryand talking to U.S. commanders. The immediate political firestormcaused by that one word led the senator to convene another newsconference just a few hours later.
"We are going to try this again," said Barack Obama. "Apparently, I was not clear enough this morning."
Senator Obama was eager to reassure his core supporters on one of his signature issues.
"Iwould be deliberate and careful in how we got out," he said. "I wouldbring our troops home at a pace of one-to-two brigades per month. Andat that pace we would have our combat troops out in 16 months. Thatposition has not changed. I have not equivocated on that position. Iam not searching for maneuvering room with respect to that position."
Butaside from drawing criticism from Obama's political opponents, thatposition has caused concern among some potential supporters in themiddle of the political spectrum.
Some analysts like MichaelO'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, do not necessarily support thewar, but worry that a precipitous U.S. withdrawal could have seriousnegative consequences for Iraq, the region and U.S. interests.
"Iam extremely concerned," said Michael O'Hanlon. "I think there is alot of what the senator has said that is viable and reasonable, butthat particular drawdown schedule, I think, would put at risk all thehard work and all the progress we have seen. It is just too fast."
O'Hanlonwas a strong critic of the Bush Administration's Iraq policy, and askeptic of the troop surge the president announced a year and a halfago. But after two visits to Iraq since the surge began, O'Hanlon saysprogress on security and political issues is significant and needs tobe protected, allowing for only a slow and careful U.S. withdrawal inthe coming months.
"I believe that the next 15 to 18 months inIraq are a period of considerable difficulty and fragility," he said."Now that we have seen the surge occur, we should slow down thereductions a bit. We can probably continue to make modest reductionsbut they should not be at the same pace as they have been because thepace of the last seven months has been a dramatic cutback."
O'Hanlonand other experts point out that the end of the surge later this monthwill complete a 25-percent reduction in U.S. combat troop strength inIraq. They argue that it would be dangerous to continue at that pace,and they say senior U.S. commanders agree.
Republican Partycandidate Senator John McCain has a similar view, and says he willleave as many U.S. troops in Iraq as necessary, for as long asnecessary, to ensure that stability is well established before anymajor U.S. troop withdrawal.
The man with the key responsibilityfor recommending future troop levels to President Bush, and to the nextpresident, is the U.S. commander in Iraq, General David Petraeus. Heis just beginning an expected six-week period of assessment that willculminate with his next set of recommendations in September. Petraeusis keeping his thoughts to himself in the meantime.
But oneretired general, who works as an adviser to the Iraq commander and toDefense Secretary Robert Gates, says General Petraeus' recommendationswill make the Iraq war a much less significant issue in thepresidential election campaign.
The adviser, General JackKeane, says he also believes that by early next year, when the nextpresident takes office, Petraeus will be ready to recommend troopwithdrawals that will not be far off what Senator Obama has called for.
"I do not believe we are arguing over very much between whatPetraeus can not tell you now and what he would recommend to a newpresident in January, and what a new president would want to see, bethey Republican or Democrat," said General Keane. "We are going tohave significant force reduction in 2009 based on military commanders'recommendations, and it will be even more significant in 2010."
Thatis far from certain. But it would be good news for Senator Obama, whohas appeared to be setting himself up for a confrontation with seniorU.S. military officers, who have been cautious in their troopwithdrawal recommendations.
With that in mind, analyst Michael O'Hanlon hopes Senator Obama's coming visit to Iraq will moderate his position.
"Iam glad to hear that Senator Obama is going over there in July," saidO'Hanlon. "I think that is a critically important decision on hisaccount. And I am encouraged by it. And I would simply say let us allgive him a little time to digest what he learns over there and hopethat there is a revision to his public position before this fall."
ButSenator Obama is doing his best to put an end to such speculation, inpart through his opinion article in The New York Times, confirming his16-month withdrawal plan, as he did back on July 3, just after that oneword started the confusion over his policy.
"Let me be asclear as I can be.," said Senator Obama. "I intend to end this war. Myfirst day in office I will bring the joint chiefs of staff in and Iwill give them a new mission, and that is to end this war, responsibleand deliberately, but decisively."
Senator Obama says his planis the only way to pressure Iraqi officials to make needed progress onsecurity and political issues. He makes provision only for what hecalls "tactical adjustments" to ensure the withdrawal is safe. And hesays that while he does not want a permanent U.S. troop presence inIraq, he would be willing to keep a relatively small counter-terrorismforce there for a while, along with trainers for the Iraqi military andenough troops to keep them safe.
The senator does not sayexactly how many that would be, but he makes clear they would not be inthe lead combat role they have had for the last five years.