Nairobi
11 July 2008
As the International Criminal Court's chief prosecutor prepares toissue new arrest warrants in an investigation into the conflict in theDarfur region of Sudan, there is growing speculation that Sudan's President Omar al-Bashir will himself be targeted. But as Derek Kilnerreports from VOA's East Africa bureau in Nairobi, many observers fearthe consequences that such a move might have on the security situationon the ground, as well as for peace efforts to end the conflict.
TheInternational Criminal Court, or ICC, issued a statement Thursday, thatChief Prosecutor Luis Moreno-Ocampo would on Monday present newevidence on crimes committed in Darfur and announce new indictments ofone or more individuals. Nobody has yet been named, but many expectPresident Omar al-Bashir himself will be the target.
Someactivists say such a move would be welcome, increasing pressure onSudan's president to change his government's policies in Darfur.
Butmany observers of the conflict are concerned about the ramifications ofsuch a move. Issaka Souare, a researcher at the Institute for SecurityStudies in South Africa, says an indictment of President al-Bashir orother top officials could make peace efforts more difficult.
"Onecannot overestimate the implications of such a move on the situation inDarfur," said Souare. "It will one, make it difficult for mediators to engage theSudanese authorities who are already reluctant to cooperate on certainissues with the mediators. You will then have given theauthorities in Sudan another excuse for not engaging with the mediatorand the international community. You do not sign up to a peaceagreement just to find yourself incarcerated."
Peace effortsover the past two years have achieved little, complicated by a growingnumber rebel factions among other problems, and show little indicationof getting back on track any time soon.
But perhaps of more concern, is the effect that new indictments could have on the ground in Darfur.
"Itmight also lead to some sort of reprisals against peacekeepers on theground or an exacerbation of the armed conflict situation. So onecannot doubt the possible implications should it turn out to be thecase, on the ground in Darfur," said Souare.
Earlier this week,seven peacekeepers from the joint U.N.-African Union force were killedin an ambush. The identity of the attackers is not yet known, but someobservers fear that the gunmen may have belonged to thegovernment-backed Janjaweed militia, since the government is worriedthat peacekeepers could be used to carry out ICC warrants.
Thepeacekeeping force has been able to deploy fewer than 10,000 ofits projected 26,000 personnel. U.N. officials and humanitarian workershave expressed concern about the security of their operations if topofficials are indicted.
So far, two Sudanese citizens are wantedby the ICC. Ali Kushayb is a leader of the Janjaweed, and Ahmad Harounis Sudan's minister for humanitarian affairs. Sudan has refused tocooperate with the ICC, and government spokesman Rabie Atti says thatpolicy will continue.
"There is a concrete decision," he said."No Sudanese citizen or a minister or a president will be handed to theICC. And this is final. Whether this is al-Bashir, or the minister ofhumanitarian issues, or minister of interior, or just a simple mangoing in the street. This has already been decided."
Theconflict in Darfur has killed between 200,000 and 300,000 people since2003, and displaced over two million, according to U.N. estimates.