New Delhi
17 July 2008
India's Congress-led coalition government and its politicalopponents are wooing support ahead of a crucial confidence vote to beheld next week. As Anjana Pasricha reports, the vote was triggered bydeep political divisions over a controversial civilian nuclear dealwith the United States.
When Indian Prime Minister ManmohanSingh decided, earlier this month, to move forward with a civiliannuclear pact signed with the United States, he had to put the survivalof his government at stake. If concluded, the pact will give Indiaaccess to global nuclear commerce from which it has been shut out fordecades, because it has not signed the Nuclear Non Proliferation Treaty.
Butstrong political opposition to the pact has reduced Mr. Singh'sgovernment to a minority, prompting him to seek a confidence vote in atwo-day session of parliament, starting Monday.
On thefront-line of those opposing the pact are Communist parties, who havepulled back support to the Congress-led coalition. They are vowing todo all they can to ensure the government will be defeated and forced toshelve the nuclear deal.
Analysts say that, for Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, the nuclear pact is important enough to risk his government.
Independentpolitical analyst Mahesh Rangarajan says the prime minister sees thedeal as the showpiece achievement of his tenure, putting India in aselect group of nations that have a nuclear weapons program, and accessto nuclear commerce.
"He sees it as important, in terms ofbringing India into that international comity of nations, that trade innuclear materials and technology," he said. "India is not been part ofthat trade. Further, and this is significant, Prime Minister ManmohanSingh, sees a strategic partnership with the U.S. as essential to India[long term interest]."
But Communist parties accuse the primeminister of putting Washington's interests before that of his ownpeople and say the pact will give the United States too much leverageon India's foreign and nuclear policy.
The head of theCommunist Party of India (Marxist), Prakash Karat, says the governmentis spending all its energy on sealing the nuclear deal, at a time whenits priority should be to fight runaway inflation and poverty.
Karatsays his party will never agree to become a "junior partner of theUnited States". He says the government is devising policies to promoteAmerican interests in India.
As the vote looms ahead, unlikelypolitical alliances are being lined up in New Delhi, because theoutcome of the vote will hinge on small political groups who have notyet decided which side to support.
The Communists and the mainopposition Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party are usually onopposite sides of the political spectrum. However, this time, both aretrying to influence undecided members of parliament to vote against thegovernment.
The Congress Party, on its part, has lined up a newally, a former rival called the Samajwadi Party, to make-up for theloss of the Communists. But the Samajwadi Party, alone, cannot takethe government past the half-way mark in the 545 member lower house ofparliament. The leadership is in talks with small groups to enlisttheir support.
Political analyst Mahesh Rangarajan says political deals are likely to be made with the small parties, ahead of the vote.
"Thegovernment is on tenterhooks," he said. "So, incidentally, are theopponents of the government. There are political agreements to bestruck. Some of the smaller parties do have rather important platformsof their own. One for them, for instance, wants a smaller state. Another believes ethanol ought to be subsidized."
Politicalopponents of the Congress Party are accusing the it of bendingbackwards to accommodate demands from smaller groups - accusationsCongress strongly denies.
The Congress Party says it isconfident of winning the vote, but appears prepared for the unexpected.Congress Party General Secretary Rahul Gandhi says the nuclear deal isan "exceptional deal" for the country.
"When you are convincedthat something is in the interest of the country, numbers don'tmatter," he said. "We are going to win the vote, but, even if we don't,it does not matter, because the decision [deal] is in the interests ofthis country."
A victory for the government will mean it canseek approvals from the International Atomic Energy Agency and theNuclear Suppliers Group so that the deal can then go the U.S. Congressfor approval. A defeat will mean early elections for India and a periodof political uncertainty.