The following appeared in a memorandum from the assistant manager of Pageturner Books:"Over the past two years, Pageturner's profits have decreased by 5 percent, even though we have added a popular c

In this argument, the author asserts that placing copies of the store's most frequently books on a high shelf behind the payment counter can enhance the profitability. The author's argument appears to be well supported but a deeper examination would reveal that the conclusion is flawed by dubious assumption and biased reasoning. In my opinion, however, the author's statement is only a valid point on certain conditions. In this essay, I will present three of the biggest reasons why I disagree with this argument.

In the first place, the argument suffers the problem of oversimplification. The arguer unfairly assumes that the increases of profits are due to the site of the stolen books. However, there is no sufficient evidences which can confirm the conclusion.The author overlooks other factors that might also give rise to the increases of profitability. The company's profitability is determined by the whole bunch of business environment, national economy, politics, competitiveness, and so on. Sometimes, brand awareness also plays a pivotal role. In short, without considering and ruling out all of the possibilities, the credibility of the conclusion is really open to doubt since each of the possibilities, if true, would serve to undermine the conclusion. The author must consider and eliminate other possible reasons that might also lead to the result.

In the second place, the idea that theft of the books may not be the only thing contributing to profit decreases is furthered by the fact that the assistant manager cites “increased in the theft of merchandise” not just specifically books. The cd’s and tapes in the music section may not only be expensive to have on the shelves, but could actually be the things being stolen at higher rates. Again, putting just the frequently stolen books behind the counter will not fix the decreased profit problem. It would help if the store had a more detailed system for logging and analyzing theft data.

Finally, although both Pageturner and Thoreau are bookstores, it is not mentioned what type of books they specialize in. If one store is in a bad area of town, discouraging theft could have greater impacts on the theft rate and profitability, but this is not given in the article. . How bad was the theft problem at Thoreau compared to Pageturner’s theft problem. T the above article does not mention any other strategies Thoreau Books may have implemented to increase their profitability. It is not known whether Thoreau Books also spent money on other store improvements, which could contribute to their increased profitability or even whether they have the same sort of expenses as Pageturner Books. Without knowing how the stores compare, it is hard to say the anti-theft strategy will have the same success at both stores.

In summary, the reasons employed by the author are neither persuasive nor convincing. The conclusion lacks credibility because the evidences cited in the analysis do not lend a strong support to what the author claims. Therefore, I disagree with the argument because the argument creates the problems of oversimplification, gratuitous assumption and false analogy. To make the argument more complete, the author should take comprehensive considerations into account and resolve the problems mentioned above.