60、The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
In this letter, the author recommends investment in Consolidated Industries because of the prediction of an increasing demand for heating oil in the Northeastern United States. To support the claim, the author quotes that oil has long been used as a major fuel for heating in the area. Moreover, the climate forecasts in the area show below-normal temperatures will continue for the next few years. In addition, there is a rising construction in building new homes due to recent population growth in the region. While the program might be beneficial to some extent, the reasoning of this claim is unconvincing due to several unsubstantiated assumptions which, if proven unwarranted, will seriously challenge the author’s recommendation.
First of all, whether the author’s recommendation is advisable highly depends on the soundness of the assumption that a below-normal temperature will continue for the next few years. However, this assumption is potentially problematic because the author simply states the region experienced 90 days of below-normal temperature in the last heating season without providing strong evidence or statistics. The temperature in the last heating season does not exactly predict the future climate. Moreover, due to global warming, there is a possibility that the temperature in the winter will be higher than that of the previous year. Therefore, If the methods used behinds the weather forecast is untenable, the author’s argument will be unconvincing.
Even if the aforementioned assumption remains tenable. / In addition, we should still be cautious about ….
It is worthwhile examining the soundness of another assumption that increasing housing supply in response to population growth. It is unreasonable to assume that a housing supply increase due to population growth will definitely corresponds to an increasing demand of heating oil consumption in the winter. If the region is mainly considered as summer vocation stay, and people mainly come in summer and leave in winter. Thus, the consumption of heating oil will not rise significantly with the number of new homes being built. Moreover, a population growth could be potentially offset by the residents in town who are scared off by the record low temperature and spend their winter time in or even move to other cities. In such cases, the heating oil consumption might remain at the same level comparing to that of last year. If any of these possibilities is true, then we are inclined to believe that there may not be an increasing demand in the heating oil and the investment recommendation therefore requires a more detailed investigation.
In addition, the author suggests recommendation of investing in one of major provider of home heating oil - Consolidated Industries. The reader should be cautious about the assumption behinds the recommendation. However, the future demand for heating oil is not the only one of many factors that should be taken into consideration when making decision. The author’s claim suffers from a questionable assumption which hastily generalizes the company’s profitability is promising. Factors like company financial performance is also important. If the company does not hedge the raw material price and faces a significant rise in the production cost of heating oil due to a rise in price or a price war is initiated by newly entered competitors, the company may suffer from loss thus providing a lower return than other companies. Therefore, if any of the above scenarios turns out to be true, then there is reason to doubt the profitability of the Consolidated Industries.
In a nutshell, whether or not we should follow the writer’s recommendation depends greatly on the validity of the assumptions in the argument. The weather prediction is accurate, the residents in the region are increasing consistently even in the winter, and most importantly the financial condition of Consolidated Industries. While the author’s suggestion appears appealing, the questionable assumptions discussed above many deprive it of its feasibility. Consequently, a more thorough research regarding the target company and supporting evidences are required to ascertain the validity of the argument.
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 5, column 1, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT
Message: “Even if” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...pos;s argument will be unconvincing. Even if the aforementioned assumption remains t...
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Message: The verb 'will' requires the base form of the verb: 'correspond'
...ue to population growth will definitely corresponds to an increasing demand of heating oil ...
Line 7, column 530, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
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...th the number of new homes being built. Moreover, a population growth could be p...
Line 7, column 1048, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
...requires a more detailed investigation. In addition, the author suggests recomm...
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Message: This verb is normally not used in the progressive form. Try a simple form instead.
...alizes the company's profitability is promising. Factors like company financial perform...
Line 11, column 16, Rule ID: WHETHER
Message: Perhaps you can shorten this phrase to just 'whether'. It is correct though if you mean 'regardless of whether'.
...solidated Industries. In a nutshell, whether or not we should follow the writer's reco...
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Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
...ascertain the validity of the argument.
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, consequently, first, however, if, may, moreover, regarding, so, still, then, therefore, thus, while, in addition, first of all
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 31.0 19.6327345309 158% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 16.0 12.9520958084 124% => OK
Conjunction : 11.0 11.1786427146 98% => OK
Relative clauses : 13.0 13.6137724551 95% => OK
Pronoun: 21.0 28.8173652695 73% => OK
Preposition: 90.0 55.5748502994 162% => OK
Nominalization: 38.0 16.3942115768 232% => Less nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 3608.0 2260.96107784 160% => OK
No of words: 657.0 441.139720559 149% => Less content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.49162861492 5.12650576532 107% => OK
Fourth root words length: 5.06280665599 4.56307096286 111% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.31386562695 2.78398813304 119% => OK
Unique words: 295.0 204.123752495 145% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.44901065449 0.468620217663 96% => OK
syllable_count: 1131.3 705.55239521 160% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 4.0 4.96107784431 81% => OK
Article: 18.0 8.76447105788 205% => Less articles wanted as sentence beginning.
Subordination: 9.0 2.70958083832 332% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 6.0 4.22255489022 142% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 30.0 19.7664670659 152% => OK
Sentence length: 21.0 22.8473053892 92% => OK
Sentence length SD: 53.1804997678 57.8364921388 92% => OK
Chars per sentence: 120.266666667 119.503703932 101% => OK
Words per sentence: 21.9 23.324526521 94% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.4 5.70786347227 77% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 7.0 5.25449101796 133% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 13.0 8.20758483034 158% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 11.0 6.88822355289 160% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.186524405543 0.218282227539 85% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0500865201591 0.0743258471296 67% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0601421657088 0.0701772020484 86% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0900875834893 0.128457276422 70% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0625864454419 0.0628817314937 100% => OK
automated_readability_index: 15.4 14.3799401198 107% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 41.7 48.3550499002 86% => OK
smog_index: 11.2 7.1628742515 156% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 12.7 12.197005988 104% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 14.56 12.5979740519 116% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.57 8.32208582834 103% => OK
difficult_words: 162.0 98.500998004 164% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.4 11.1389221557 93% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
Write the essay in 30 minutes.
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.5 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 30 15
No. of Words: 656 350
No. of Characters: 3491 1500
No. of Different Words: 287 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 5.061 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.322 4.6
Word Length SD: 3.152 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 274 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 210 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 159 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 119 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 21.867 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 9.04 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.667 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.272 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.483 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.094 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 6 5