An investment consultant suggests his client that he should invest in Consolidated Industries, a company which focus in doing home heating oil retail business. He proposes this based on the facts that many new houses were built and 90 days of below-normal temperatures were recorded in last heating season in nottheastern United States and believes that the demand of heating oil will be great in the future. His argument may seems justifiable ostensibly, at the first glance, but is flawed to be supported when fully evaluate the hidden assumptions that he made.
Given most homes in northeastern United States use oil as their major fuel for heating traditionally, the author implies that the demand of heating oil will not be decreased in the coming years. Obviously, the author fails to consider that there may be alternatives which would replace heating oil in later time. While sustainable energy is developed rapidly in America these days, many households may switch to use electricity as the main source of heating fuel.
The author also cites a weather report which stated that there are 90 days of below-normal temperatures recorded in last heating period and claims that this climate will continue for several more years. He backs his claim by mentioning the related predictions made by weather forecasters. However, he does not make comparison between previous cold records and the 90 days record that he stated, hence we have no idea that whether a record of 90 days vary greatly to the past samples or just about the same. Perhaps there are generally about 120 freezing days in the past but only 90 days this year, we just don't know.
Moreover, the author gives the recent population growth in that region in substantiation of his claim that new house built and population growth will still be a trend in future. Unfortunately, he disregards the cause of population growth. Maybe there are economy falldown in other nations and immigrants are coming back to their hometown this year. What if economic blooming in other cities or political failure in northeastern United States happened in the future? Residents may move to elsewhere and the region will be much less populated. The demand of household fuel is not guaranteed in this case.
In addition, the most critical concern in investing on Consolidated Industries is that will it really make a profit in that area? Perhaps this company does not serve the northeastern part of America at all, so get no benefits from the generally low temperature and huge demand of heating fuel in that area. Even if it does provide business in this region, the author does not examine the financial status or past loan history. Will this company poosibly go bankcrupt in the coming few years? Without thorough yet indeep study of a enterprise, investing huge amount of money in it is not wise.
In conclusion, there are many researches and studies should the author do before giving such an advise, otherwise his proposal is not cogent and convincing.
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.5 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 22 15
No. of Words: 503 350
No. of Characters: 2458 1500
No. of Different Words: 254 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.736 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.887 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.646 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 178 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 119 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 80 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 55 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 22.864 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 9.186 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.591 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.28 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.54 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.119 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 6 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 5, column 608, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: don't
...ast but only 90 days this year, we just dont know. Moreover, the author gives th...
^^^^
Line 7, column 168, Rule ID: IN_PAST[1]
Message: Did you mean: 'in the future'?
Suggestion: in the future
...population growth will still be a trend in future. Unfortunately, he disregards the cause...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 9, column 530, Rule ID: EN_A_VS_AN
Message: Use 'an' instead of 'a' if the following word starts with a vowel sound, e.g. 'an article', 'an hour'
Suggestion: an
...s? Without thorough yet indeep study of a enterprise, investing huge amount of mo...
^
Line 11, column 94, Rule ID: A_INFINITVE[1]
Message: Probably a wrong construction: a/the + infinitive
...should the author do before giving such an advise, otherwise his proposal is not cogent a...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 11, column 97, Rule ID: GIVE_ADVISE[2]
Message: Did you mean 'advice' (a noun)?
Suggestion: advice
...uld the author do before giving such an advise, otherwise his proposal is not cogent a...
^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, hence, however, if, may, moreover, really, so, still, while, in addition, in conclusion
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 19.0 19.6327345309 97% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 14.0 12.9520958084 108% => OK
Conjunction : 16.0 11.1786427146 143% => OK
Relative clauses : 19.0 13.6137724551 140% => OK
Pronoun: 43.0 28.8173652695 149% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 63.0 55.5748502994 113% => OK
Nominalization: 7.0 16.3942115768 43% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2517.0 2260.96107784 111% => OK
No of words: 502.0 441.139720559 114% => OK
Chars per words: 5.01394422311 5.12650576532 98% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.7334296765 4.56307096286 104% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.70408549785 2.78398813304 97% => OK
Unique words: 259.0 204.123752495 127% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.51593625498 0.468620217663 110% => OK
syllable_count: 781.2 705.55239521 111% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 6.0 4.96107784431 121% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 2.0 2.70958083832 74% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 4.0 4.22255489022 95% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 22.0 19.7664670659 111% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 51.5235042248 57.8364921388 89% => OK
Chars per sentence: 114.409090909 119.503703932 96% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.8181818182 23.324526521 98% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.77272727273 5.70786347227 84% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 5.0 5.25449101796 95% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 8.0 8.20758483034 97% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.88822355289 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.286019336753 0.218282227539 131% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0723773202 0.0743258471296 97% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.092758866958 0.0701772020484 132% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.132994228262 0.128457276422 104% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0952143176741 0.0628817314937 151% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.6 14.3799401198 95% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 49.15 48.3550499002 102% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.9 12.197005988 98% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.07 12.5979740519 96% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.44 8.32208582834 101% => OK
difficult_words: 118.0 98.500998004 120% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 14.0 12.3882235529 113% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 14.0 11.9071856287 118% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.