A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches.

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A recently issued twenty-year study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia investigated the possible therapeutic effect of consuming salicylates. Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, food-processing companies also add salicylates to foods as preservatives. The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants. At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so. Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.

The above argument presented a study regarding the positive impact of Salicylates on healing headache of the citizens of Mentia based on a longitudinal study. Since the individuals under survey showed attenuated pain on intake of Salicylates, it has been considered as a panacea for this particular disease. Along with this, the probability of usage of Salicylates by the food-processing companies has shown an upward trend by assimilating it as a preservatives or enhancing flavor of eatables. Hence, the community of health-experts predicted that Mentia citizens will have fewer headaches. This study seems plausible but a closer scrutiny of the facts and figures presents web of loopholes and tend to make results quite spurious and flimsy.

First of all, the results deducted on the basis of twenty-year long study, in the absence of information regarding sample, methodology and environmental attributes etc can't be considered valid. One can't ignore the perishable nature of human life and the researchers might have changed the sample due to his unavailability during the deductions of final results. An inconsistency or variation in the sample alters the complete scenario. Also, nothing has been mentioned about the sample size, quality of sample like their age-structure, demographic characteristics etc. In addition to this, the place where the people are studied might be free of noise, work-load or family tensions; since these are major reasons of head-ache and if these have been ignored, the results can never yield apt output. The study showed decline in average of persons suffering head-ache, but average in the lack of base value won’t provide pertinent information.

Further, health experts gave prominent emphasis on the introduction of salicylates by food-processing companies. Indeed, salicylates act as preservative and adds flavor to the goods, yet the business personnel can't introduce it without considering the cost that will be incurred on it. In business ventures, the decisions depend on margin of profit. Though, salicylates act as a advantageous tool yet extrapolating the results in spite of assessing the real market situation won't be cogent and sturdy. Had they cost-benefit analysis or profit-margins be described the results could have been valid.

Last but not the least, extrapolating the result that salicylates is the only factor to cure headache is wrong, as the researchers have ignored other related factors like genetic pattern, professional pattern, climate of the particular region etc. Moreover, deductions are made on the data that had been initially collected 20 years back and so its authenticity is questioned since various habits and attitudes of individual’s changes with the passage of time. The denizens might start in taking fresh food, adopting exercise etc to avoid headache in spite of using Salicylates directly or indirectly. Thus, predictions made for the future generations can’t be termed as sturdy.

To conclude, the prediction seems implausible since the related factors have not been widely studied. Had the conclusions been dependent of firm hypothesis with strong foundation of results and data, the above discussion could have been proper and cohesive.

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argument 1 -- not OK

argument 2 -- not OK

argument 3 -- OK but this is for argument 1
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Let's analyze the structure of the statement and argue accordingly:

condition 1:
The twenty-year study found a correlation between the rise in the commercial use of salicylates and a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by study participants.

condition 2:
At the time when the study concluded, food-processing companies had just discovered that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods, and, as a result, many companies plan to do so.

conclusion:
Based on these study results, some health experts predict that residents of Mentia will suffer even fewer headaches in the future.

then here goes the argument:

argument 1:
Your argument 3 is OK.

argument 2:
It is not 'the more, the better', maybe it is getting harmful with more salicylates in food.

argument 3:
Supposes salicylates can cure headaches, it doesn't mean it can prevent headaches.
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Attribute Value Ideal
Score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 20 15
No. of Words: 500 350
No. of Characters: 2687 1500
No. of Different Words: 276 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.729 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.374 4.6
Word Length SD: 3.056 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 203 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 155 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 116 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 87 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 25 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 14.896 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.5 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.282 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.52 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.051 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5