Launching a business has always been a critical decision since many factors influence the future of a business. Although some people might believe that nowadays due to the recent advancements of economics and technology predicting the future of a business is easier than the past, I would argue that since the community was less complex and market was less extended and consequently the competition was lower in the market, people could predict the future of their business to some extent; therefore they could realize which occupation would be profitable and successful in the future.
First, the society and its requirements were less complex in the past. Therefore, the number of factors which influenced the future of a career was lower. People had a very basic lifestyle, and new concepts such as fashion or style were not as important as they are today. Lower financial abilities did not provide many options for the customers to consider when they wanted to purchase a good or service. For instance, if someone required a pair of shoes he would go to the store and buy the best thing he could afford. Therefore, business owners did not have to put much effort into realizing what people like and which style they would prefer. In fact, these concepts mostly have been invented recently. On the other hand, a person who has decided to open a shoe store in the modern society should consider what is the people's taste at this specific period, what is the trend and who are the potential customers and many other factors. These factors are sometimes sophisticated and dependent on many variables. Therefore, in comparison to the past, since many multi variable factors affect the future of a business, predicting the future of business could not be accurate.
Second, the competition was less severe in comparison to the modern society. Since the competition was lower, people could have a successful career with less effort. For example, a person who had a shoe store in a town did not have to provide different styles to satisfy its customers. Due to fewer providers, people had no variety of option and had to purchase whatever was available in the shop to satisfy their basic need. In contrast, a person who decides to open a shoe store today should consider many factors such as the number of other shoe stores in the area, the styles they provide, the quality of their products etc. Thus, due to competition, several external factors influence the future of a career and not all of them could be predictable. This increases the possible risks and makes the future of a business unclear.
To sum up, based on the arguments explored above, I believe that in the past people could predict the future of their business more precisely since the market was limited and competition was much less than now.