The commercial airline industry in the country of Freedonia has experienced impressive growth in the past three years. This trend will surely continue in the years to come, since the airline industry will benefit from recent changes in Freedonian society: incomes are rising; most employees now receive more vacation time; and interest in travel is rising, as shown by an increase in media attention devoted to foreign cultures and tourist attractions.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
Here, the author predicts that the commercial airline industry in Freedonia will continue to experience incredible growth in the coming years as it has in the past three years. The author reached this conclusion based on the premise that the airline industry will profit from current changes like rising incomes, more holidays and increasing travelling interest, in the Freedonia society. This prediction is, however, based on several unfounded assumptions that if not substantially examined, dramatically weakens the persuasiveness of the argument. Therefore, for this conclusion to be properly evaluated, three questions need to be answered.
First, can the societal conditions of the last three years be compared with the present conditions? Are there no increased crime rate or another societal disarray that may affect the citizens’ behaviours and interactions? It is possible that the cases of reported crime in the country and even globally, have risen in recent times and therefore people are forced to suspend all travelling arrangements till further notice. There is also a possibility that a serious pandemic has just emerged and is ravaging the entire nation, resulting in a government-imposed 2years quarantine period and 4years travelling ban to curtail the effects of the virus. If either of the above scenarios proves true, then the author's argument of commercial airline industry growth is significantly weakened.
Second, are there no other factors contending with the increasing income? The author presumes that increasing income will come with increasing travel spending. This might not be true, as the prices of food, clothing and shelter, which forms the necessities of human existence, may also be increasing. Hence the employees will rather be frugal and prudent in spending the available money. Also, increased income may come with an increased tax rate from the government, increased electricity bill, and increased bank charges. If this is the case, the citizens might not be solvent enough to afford commercial travel during the coming years. The author can further strengthen his argument be answering if the rising income would not come with other increasing charges.
Lastly, even if the societal conditions are fine and increasing income would not come with increased bills, will most of the employees be interested in spending their vacation period travelling? The author assumes that more vacation time is equivalent to more travelling time. This may not be the case as most employees might have decided to use the holiday period in the coming years to learn a hand trade, study online materials or perhaps take online part-time college courses. It is also possible that for the coming years, the employees will be more inclined to stay at home with the family, or even spend more time with colleagues in the neighbourhood. If it is true that the employees will not use the vacation period as travelling period, then the author's argument is invalid and does not hold water.
In conclusion, though commercial airline might be positioned for increased growth in the coming years, yet, the author's assumption as it stands, is completely flawed and does not hold water. If the author can provide more evidence in the form of scientific research and also provide answers to the above three questions, then it will be possible to fully evaluate his conclusion.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 23 15
No. of Words: 539 350
No. of Characters: 2793 1500
No. of Different Words: 237 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.818 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.182 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.742 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 215 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 161 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 122 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 78 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 23.435 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 7.945 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.826 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.302 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.507 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.077 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 705, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...e above scenarios proves true, then the authors argument of commercial airline industry...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 302, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Hence,
...uman existence, may also be increasing. Hence the employees will rather be frugal and...
^^^^^
Line 7, column 757, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...n period as travelling period, then the authors argument is invalid and does not hold w...
^^^^^^^
Line 9, column 113, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...ed growth in the coming years, yet, the authors assumption as it stands, is completely ...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, first, hence, however, if, lastly, may, second, so, then, therefore, in conclusion, it is true
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 28.0 19.6327345309 143% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 22.0 12.9520958084 170% => OK
Conjunction : 16.0 11.1786427146 143% => OK
Relative clauses : 11.0 13.6137724551 81% => OK
Pronoun: 25.0 28.8173652695 87% => OK
Preposition: 55.0 55.5748502994 99% => OK
Nominalization: 14.0 16.3942115768 85% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2864.0 2260.96107784 127% => OK
No of words: 539.0 441.139720559 122% => OK
Chars per words: 5.31354359926 5.12650576532 104% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.81833721656 4.56307096286 106% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.81645363572 2.78398813304 101% => OK
Unique words: 247.0 204.123752495 121% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.458256029685 0.468620217663 98% => OK
syllable_count: 877.5 705.55239521 124% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 8.0 8.76447105788 91% => OK
Subordination: 7.0 2.70958083832 258% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 23.0 19.7664670659 116% => OK
Sentence length: 23.0 22.8473053892 101% => OK
Sentence length SD: 46.0634886928 57.8364921388 80% => OK
Chars per sentence: 124.52173913 119.503703932 104% => OK
Words per sentence: 23.4347826087 23.324526521 100% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.34782608696 5.70786347227 76% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 4.0 5.25449101796 76% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 8.0 8.20758483034 97% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 7.0 6.88822355289 102% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 8.0 4.67664670659 171% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.214931256537 0.218282227539 98% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0722790061434 0.0743258471296 97% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0945236811962 0.0701772020484 135% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.143711107203 0.128457276422 112% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.100785775658 0.0628817314937 160% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 15.3 14.3799401198 106% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 48.13 48.3550499002 100% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 12.3 12.197005988 101% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.81 12.5979740519 110% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.7 8.32208582834 105% => OK
difficult_words: 134.0 98.500998004 136% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.2 11.1389221557 101% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.