The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The author of the memo concludes that the northeastern United Stated will experience an increased demand in heating oil due to a weather pattern and population growth. While this argument sounds reasonable, at least three pieces of evidence need to be provided in order for it to hold water.
First of all, the author assumes that the occurrence of below-normal temperatures is a sufficient condition for a need in increased heating. However, we do not have enough information about the weather pattern. It is possible that the temperature only fell 0.5 degrees lower than normal, which would not be a change radical enough for the households to use more heating oil. If this pattern only reflects such a trivial change in temperature, the argument for the probable increased usage of heating oil would be significantly weakened.
Moreover, the author does not provide enough data on the current heating oil consumption in northeastern United States. A few questions are to be considered here. First, while the oil was being used traditionally as a fuel, is it still the case? It is possible that people now are choosing other sources for heating, such as coal or solar power. Second, how did the change in weather pattern influence the oil consuption during the last heating season? It might be the case that it did not grow regardless of the colder weather, for instance, due to economic recession. If the current usage of oil is plummeting or remains the same, it would weaken the argument for the increased demand.
Even if two of the aforementioned assumptions will be supported by evidence, there would be still an another problematic assumption left in this memo. More evidence is needed that the construction of more houses will lead to an increase in heating oil consumption. It is possible that other ways to preserve heat are implemented during the constuction. For example, the houses may be better insulated, or a centeral heating system might be developed for them. If the new households will not rely on oil as much as the old ones, the growth of population would not be a ground for an increased heating oil consumption.
All in all, while the argument sounds reasonable, it does miss a number of key pieces of evidence needed for the argument to hold water.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 19 15
No. of Words: 385 350
No. of Characters: 1848 1500
No. of Different Words: 179 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.43 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.8 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.768 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 135 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 98 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 68 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 45 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 20.263 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 5.637 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.737 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.314 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.516 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.058 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 13, column 99, Rule ID: AN_ANOTHER[1]
Message: One of these determiners is redundant in this context. Choose only one: 'a problematic' or 'another problematic'.
Suggestion: a problematic; another problematic
...orted by evidence, there would be still an another problematic assumption left in this memo. More evid...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 15, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...an increased heating oil consumption. All in all, while the argument sounds re...
^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
first, however, if, may, moreover, second, so, still, while, at least, for example, for instance, such as, first of all
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 22.0 19.6327345309 112% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 14.0 12.9520958084 108% => OK
Conjunction : 4.0 11.1786427146 36% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 8.0 13.6137724551 59% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 21.0 28.8173652695 73% => OK
Preposition: 38.0 55.5748502994 68% => OK
Nominalization: 24.0 16.3942115768 146% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1913.0 2260.96107784 85% => OK
No of words: 385.0 441.139720559 87% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 4.96883116883 5.12650576532 97% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.4296068528 4.56307096286 97% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.84538786101 2.78398813304 102% => OK
Unique words: 185.0 204.123752495 91% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.480519480519 0.468620217663 103% => OK
syllable_count: 590.4 705.55239521 84% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 7.0 4.96107784431 141% => OK
Article: 7.0 8.76447105788 80% => OK
Subordination: 7.0 2.70958083832 258% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 19.0 19.7664670659 96% => OK
Sentence length: 20.0 22.8473053892 88% => OK
Sentence length SD: 32.9950050782 57.8364921388 57% => The essay contains lots of sentences with the similar length. More sentence varieties wanted.
Chars per sentence: 100.684210526 119.503703932 84% => OK
Words per sentence: 20.2631578947 23.324526521 87% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.26315789474 5.70786347227 110% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 6.0 8.20758483034 73% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 7.0 6.88822355289 102% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.154644937231 0.218282227539 71% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0591846078554 0.0743258471296 80% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0605452667541 0.0701772020484 86% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0914469288814 0.128457276422 71% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0537083671486 0.0628817314937 85% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.1 14.3799401198 84% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 59.64 48.3550499002 123% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 9.9 12.197005988 81% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.55 12.5979740519 92% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.32 8.32208582834 100% => OK
difficult_words: 90.0 98.500998004 91% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.0 11.1389221557 90% => OK
text_standard: 10.0 11.9071856287 84% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.