The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
Firstly, will the prediction of forecaster turn out to be true about continuation of such abnormal temperature in next five year? What factor was taken into account on making this prediction? Here, the author, to make his statement justifiable, assumes that the temperature will fall below the normal temperature for next year as per the prediction made by the climate forecaster. But, this may not be the case. Unprecedented scenario may occur in that region that may result in dramatic increase in temperature well above the normal level. May be, sun radiation increases in North Eastern Area thereby, increasing the overall temperature of the place. Perhaps, hot wind may come form the eastern part of world warming the temperature of place. For all we know, there may be occurrance of dramatic increase in temperature due to global warming effects. So, assuming that the predictor will be correct is premature. If any of the above scenario has any merit, then conclusion drawn from original argument is dramatically undermined.
Secondly, even if the prediction will turn out to be true, will the recent population growth result in new home and, consequently increase demand of the oil? In other word, is the population growth an indicator of raise in demand of oil in the region? Here, the author fallaciously assumes that the population growth is closely tied to increase in new houses. This may not be the case. Conceivably, people may decide not to build their new home in such a cold place. It is possible that they may migrate to other warmer place after this news will break. So, the author must give enough evidence regarding such seemingly specious link which may not correlate at all. If above are true, then the argument doesn't hold water.
Finally, Even if, the people in the region build their new house and prediction of forecaster is true, will they buy the heating oil? Aren't their other way by which they can warm themselves? Author is assuming that heating oil will only be viable option for the people in region. This may not be the case. Perhaps, new electronic company invest heavily in the region and people may be inclined to the electronic good rather than the oil. What if, people are unable to go out and buy the oil due to extream cold climate and instead, use online shopping method to buy some other way to heat themselves? If any of the above is true, the conclusion of increase in the sale of oil in region will daramatically subverted.
To conclude, the arguement as it stands is severly flawed due its reliance on several unwarranted assumptions. However, if the author is able to give answers to these three questions with evidence (probably in term of systematic research) then evaluation of the conclusion that the oil will be sucessful in next five years is possible.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
samples:
https://www.testbig.com/gmatgre-argument-task-essays/following-appeared…
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: ??? out of 6
Category: Poor Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 27 15
No. of Words: 481 350
No. of Characters: 2270 1500
No. of Different Words: 222 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.683 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.719 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.605 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 151 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 109 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 80 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 53 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 17.815 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 7.518 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.741 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.283 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.343 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.068 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 2 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 469, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...enario may occur in that region that may result in dramatic increase in temperatu...
^^
Line 3, column 705, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: doesn't
...l. If above are true, then the argument doesnt hold water. Finally, Even if, the peop...
^^^^^^
Line 4, column 134, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: Aren't
...is true, will they buy the heating oil? Arent their other way by which they can warm ...
^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, consequently, finally, first, firstly, however, if, may, regarding, second, secondly, so, then, well
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 25.0 19.6327345309 127% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 24.0 12.9520958084 185% => OK
Conjunction : 5.0 11.1786427146 45% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 10.0 13.6137724551 73% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 27.0 28.8173652695 94% => OK
Preposition: 69.0 55.5748502994 124% => OK
Nominalization: 19.0 16.3942115768 116% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2335.0 2260.96107784 103% => OK
No of words: 479.0 441.139720559 109% => OK
Chars per words: 4.87473903967 5.12650576532 95% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.67825486995 4.56307096286 103% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.66335620865 2.78398813304 96% => OK
Unique words: 226.0 204.123752495 111% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.471816283925 0.468620217663 101% => OK
syllable_count: 738.9 705.55239521 105% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 4.0 4.96107784431 81% => OK
Article: 6.0 8.76447105788 68% => OK
Subordination: 6.0 2.70958083832 221% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 27.0 19.7664670659 137% => OK
Sentence length: 17.0 22.8473053892 74% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 46.4050869923 57.8364921388 80% => OK
Chars per sentence: 86.4814814815 119.503703932 72% => OK
Words per sentence: 17.7407407407 23.324526521 76% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.88888888889 5.70786347227 68% => OK
Paragraphs: 4.0 5.15768463074 78% => More paragraphs wanted.
Language errors: 3.0 5.25449101796 57% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 14.0 8.20758483034 171% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 0.0 6.88822355289 0% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 13.0 4.67664670659 278% => Less facts, knowledge or examples wanted.
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.0859026378017 0.218282227539 39% => The similarity between the topic and the content is low.
Sentence topic coherence: 0.026619143495 0.0743258471296 36% => Sentence topic similarity is low.
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0375466694707 0.0701772020484 54% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0610128093436 0.128457276422 47% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0541865380851 0.0628817314937 86% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 10.4 14.3799401198 72% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 62.68 48.3550499002 130% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 8.7 12.197005988 71% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 10.67 12.5979740519 85% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.74 8.32208582834 93% => OK
difficult_words: 99.0 98.500998004 101% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 9.0 12.3882235529 73% => OK
gunning_fog: 8.8 11.1389221557 79% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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It is not exactly right on the topic in the view of e-grader. Maybe there is a wrong essay topic.
Rates: 16.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 1.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.