The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The letter to a client provides a strong piece of advice to invest his money into Consolidated Industries which sails oil for heating homes. Reading the letter, one can assume that it contains strong arguments such as colder winters within the following years and using oil as a traditional fuel to heat homes in the northeastern part of USA. Although, investigating in detail a lot of logical flaws can be found which undermine the rationality of this advice.
The statement which is unclear it is why a client should invest his money exactly in this firm. Though the letter provides the information that Consolidated Industries’s key business is to sell oil, there is no proof in the success of this firm in this deal. Perhaps, there are other competitors on the market with the high demand from consumers. The others can provide heating oil with the better quality or with lower prices. It means that possible buyers will turn toward them rather than towards Consolidated Industries.
One more factor to look at closely is the weather forecast at Waymarsh University. How reliable is this forecast? Can people trust the fact that that region of US will obtain more severe winters? There is a possibility that the University made a mistake in its predictions. As well, there is no proof that other sources came to the same conclusion. Since the topic of changing the climate in winters is serious, to promulgate such claims as Waymarsh University did, more research is needed. Thus, the winter with low temperatures was a unique event, and it will not happen again.
In the letter one claims that oil has been used as an orthodox fuel in that region, though it is not presented clearly what the situation is now there. Perhaps, people realized that to heat their homes with other types of fuels is cheaper and more effective. It states opaque what people are using now for heating. Moreover, those houses which were built last year, maybe, equipped with more modern heating systems as burning oil. What leads to the conclusion that in the nearest future people will stop buying oil.
Thus, there are not provided with strong arguments which would say that this piece of advice to invest client’s money into Consolidated Industries is relevant.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
argument 1 -- OK
argument 2 -- not OK. Well, we accept that the weather pattern will continue for several more years, but the loophole is: maybe there are more days with above-average temperatures in those year too.
saved heating oil = days in above-average temperatures - days in below-average temperatures
argument 3 -- OK
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 21 15
No. of Words: 381 350
No. of Characters: 1825 1500
No. of Different Words: 200 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.418 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.79 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.482 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 131 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 80 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 52 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 32 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 18.143 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 6.833 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.286 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.272 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.496 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.056 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 344, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “Although” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
... homes in the northeastern part of USA. Although, investigating in detail a lot of logic...
^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
look, may, moreover, so, thus, well, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 21.0 19.6327345309 107% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 10.0 12.9520958084 77% => OK
Conjunction : 4.0 11.1786427146 36% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 17.0 13.6137724551 125% => OK
Pronoun: 31.0 28.8173652695 108% => OK
Preposition: 45.0 55.5748502994 81% => OK
Nominalization: 3.0 16.3942115768 18% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1887.0 2260.96107784 83% => OK
No of words: 381.0 441.139720559 86% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 4.95275590551 5.12650576532 97% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.41805628031 4.56307096286 97% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.62581864713 2.78398813304 94% => OK
Unique words: 205.0 204.123752495 100% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.538057742782 0.468620217663 115% => OK
syllable_count: 573.3 705.55239521 81% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 4.0 8.76447105788 46% => OK
Subordination: 4.0 2.70958083832 148% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 21.0 19.7664670659 106% => OK
Sentence length: 18.0 22.8473053892 79% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 40.3707871302 57.8364921388 70% => OK
Chars per sentence: 89.8571428571 119.503703932 75% => OK
Words per sentence: 18.1428571429 23.324526521 78% => OK
Discourse Markers: 2.09523809524 5.70786347227 37% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 1.0 5.25449101796 19% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 6.0 8.20758483034 73% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 10.0 6.88822355289 145% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.217917877182 0.218282227539 100% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0572955696094 0.0743258471296 77% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0575584355644 0.0701772020484 82% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.122911950518 0.128457276422 96% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.05878877027 0.0628817314937 93% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 11.0 14.3799401198 76% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 61.67 48.3550499002 128% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 9.1 12.197005988 75% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.13 12.5979740519 88% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.42 8.32208582834 101% => OK
difficult_words: 94.0 98.500998004 95% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.2 11.1389221557 83% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 83.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 5.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.