The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client."Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The argument depends solely on the rise in demand for heating oil, which will consequentially result in profits for businesses catering to these demands. this argument seems logical at first, but evaluation from different perspectives paint a contrasting picture. which needs to be analysed in detail.
Firstly, the homes in northeastern United states have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. it needs to be verified that this traditional technology is still in use. Most likely these appliances could have been replaced with electric heating systems or worse the heating oil could have been completely replaced. we must look at the present state of market demand for heating oil systems in this region, and further its future sustainability in terms of rapidly changing technology.
Secondly, the climate forecasts made by Waymarsh University can't be trusted fully. Not to deny that these forecasts help us make a substantial decisions, but at the same time, these are after all forecasts with an associated probability of occurences. So these forecasts must be taken with a pinch of salt in our planning phase. we should verify these forecasts with other agencies as well. A comprehensive picture of forecasts must be taken, to make sure that these forecasts turn out to be true with greater probabilities. Or else the entire marketing program might backfire.
Thirdly, a great market demand is expected from newly built houses. The need for heating oil based equipment should be verified with the housing agencies, quantitative data should be available to approximate the market demand created from these newly built houses.
In conclusion, I will say that it may be a good recommendation to invest in heating oil based ventures. However, many aspects like the state of the heating technology and its future; reliability of weather forecasts; and the quantifiable market demand; require much more clarity in terms of available information. With this crucial information we will be in a better state to consider this investment recommendation.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 13 15
No. of Words: 328 350
No. of Characters: 1703 1500
No. of Different Words: 182 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.256 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.192 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.883 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 125 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 97 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 64 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 45 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 25.231 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 12.217 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.692 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.337 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.646 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.177 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 155, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: This
...r businesses catering to these demands. this argument seems logical at first, but ev...
^^^^
Line 1, column 265, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: Which
...rspectives paint a contrasting picture. which needs to be analysed in detail. First...
^^^^^
Line 1, column 265, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “which” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...rspectives paint a contrasting picture. which needs to be analysed in detail. First...
^^^^^
Line 3, column 111, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: It
...ed oil as their major fuel for heating. it needs to be verified that this traditio...
^^
Line 3, column 331, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: We
...il could have been completely replaced. we must look at the present state of marke...
^^
Line 5, column 61, Rule ID: CANT[1]
Message: Did you mean 'can't' or 'cannot'?
Suggestion: can't; cannot
...e forecasts made by Waymarsh University cant be trusted fully. Not to deny that thes...
^^^^
Line 5, column 330, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: We
... a pinch of salt in our planning phase. we should verify these forecasts with othe...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, first, firstly, however, if, look, may, second, secondly, so, still, third, thirdly, well, after all, in conclusion
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 15.0 19.6327345309 76% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 14.0 12.9520958084 108% => OK
Conjunction : 7.0 11.1786427146 63% => OK
Relative clauses : 6.0 13.6137724551 44% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 28.0 28.8173652695 97% => OK
Preposition: 47.0 55.5748502994 85% => OK
Nominalization: 9.0 16.3942115768 55% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1746.0 2260.96107784 77% => OK
No of words: 328.0 441.139720559 74% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.32317073171 5.12650576532 104% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.25567506705 4.56307096286 93% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.96887357284 2.78398813304 107% => OK
Unique words: 189.0 204.123752495 93% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.576219512195 0.468620217663 123% => OK
syllable_count: 548.1 705.55239521 78% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 6.0 4.96107784431 121% => OK
Article: 6.0 8.76447105788 68% => OK
Subordination: 0.0 2.70958083832 0% => More adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 5.0 1.67365269461 299% => Less conjunction wanted as sentence beginning.
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 18.0 19.7664670659 91% => OK
Sentence length: 18.0 22.8473053892 79% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 49.3200682867 57.8364921388 85% => OK
Chars per sentence: 97.0 119.503703932 81% => OK
Words per sentence: 18.2222222222 23.324526521 78% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.66666666667 5.70786347227 117% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 7.0 5.25449101796 133% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.88822355289 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.117497261495 0.218282227539 54% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0454579079825 0.0743258471296 61% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0844914568906 0.0701772020484 120% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0730836898895 0.128457276422 57% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0739999816052 0.0628817314937 118% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.7 14.3799401198 88% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 44.75 48.3550499002 93% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.5 12.197005988 94% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.58 12.5979740519 108% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 9.01 8.32208582834 108% => OK
difficult_words: 93.0 98.500998004 94% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 9.0 12.3882235529 73% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.2 11.1389221557 83% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 54.17 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.25 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.