Essay topics: The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced 90 days with below-average temperatures, and climate forecasters at Waymarsh University predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because these developments will certainly result in an increased demand for heating oil, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The letter, according to some shaky and vague pieces of evidence, has purposed that there should be an investment in Consolidated Industries until they sell the heating oil to the homes. This proposal cannot be accepted as it stands since it relies on the series of dubious clues all of which are questionable. The following paragraphs will list the crucial questions which cast doubt on the validity of this letter.
The first notable question which should be responded accurately is that what percentage of heating fuel of homes in the northeastern United States is the oil? The vague term of major cannot rear that oil is the fundament of heating fuel in this region. There is the possibility that oil is purchased by most of the homes, but the amount of its consumption as the heating source is few, and people uses mostly the wood instead of the oil. In this scenario relying on the ambiguous term of major cannot be a wise option to invest the huge amount of money on the oil retail sale.
Another query which should be answered logically is that how accurate and precise are the prediction which is done by the Waymarsh University? Since it is a university, there is a feasibility that the foresight is done by the group of students who for the sake of their naive understanding are more prone to do mistakes in their prediction. This referred prediction should be verified by an official organization until it could be considered as a reliable source for further decision making. Otherwise, if the weather condition were not as severe as anticipated by the university, the extra investment would be a monetary loss.
Even the two aforesaid questions were addressed properly; there is another issue with the letter which is questionable. The doubtful issue is that what is the novel home's insulation heating system? As asserted in the letter, currently the new homes have been constructed to be occupied by a growing population. The author does not discuss the heating system of these new houses. For instance, maybe the new constructions have implemented the geothermal system in the houses; consequently, there is no high demand for the oil as the heating source. Or the current buildings have a better insulation system which prevents the heat loss of buildings and there is no requirement for oil to heat the spaces.
To wrap it up, all the aforementioned questions explicitly depict that this letter its purposed idea cannot be accepted. The author should provide cogent evidence about the amount of oil consumption in the houses until illustrate there is massive demand to the oil as a heating source; besides, there should be concrete verification for the prediction done by the university. Finally, the heating system and insulation of the new houses require oil as the heating fuel.
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