The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
The author in this letter is keen on providing investment advice to a client to invest in Consolidated Industries in the northeastern United States. Based on this fallacious assumption, he advises his client to invest in Consolidated Industries. However, the author fails to consider other alternative explanations. He also presents no concrete evidence to bolster his argument. Thus the conclusion is incredible
Firstly, the author thinks that because of the typically cold winters in the northeastern parts of United States, there will be a surge in oil sales as the people have traditionally used oil as the major fuel for heating. I think this prediction of the author about oil sales is pretty unstated and lacks evidence. The author did not attach any pieces of evidence like a survey or an interview in which people have talked about the need for a greater amount of oil for heating in the winter. So to predict the outcome just on previous seasons' winters' does not bolster the author's claims.
Furthermore, the author cites the weather forecasters' claim about weather pattern repeating for several more years. There is no proof about the credibility of forecasters mentioned in the letter. Over that, the forecaster's prediction of 'several more years' seems to be vague and untrustworthy. Thus, the accuracy of the weather predictors has to be taken into conclusion before drawing any inferences.
Finally, recent population growth is an undetermined way to predict the rise in oil sales. Maybe, because of the cold conditions in these parts, the population had been only a few homes, and addition to a small size population does have a sizeable impact on oil sales. Also, the author does not mention about the oil consumption of the newly built homes in the region. Maybe, the new homeowners do not use oil as their fuel. The lack of answers makes the author's assumption unwarranted.
In conclusion, the authors claim are filled with flaws and incomplete with inappropriate reasoning. Had the author stated more evidence to support the claims, the arguments would have been more mettle and debatable. The argument would also be more convincing and well-reasoned.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 21 15
No. of Words: 355 350
No. of Characters: 1780 1500
No. of Different Words: 181 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.341 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.014 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.807 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 130 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 91 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 63 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 47 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 16.905 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 8.502 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.571 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.302 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.533 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.096 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 381, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Thus,
...crete evidence to bolster his argument. Thus the conclusion is incredible Firstl...
^^^^
Line 1, column 414, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...ument. Thus the conclusion is incredible Firstly, the author thinks that because ...
^^^^^
Line 5, column 212, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'forecasters'' or 'forecaster's'?
Suggestion: forecasters'; forecaster's
...mentioned in the letter. Over that, the forecasters prediction of several more years seems ...
^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 7, column 457, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...ir fuel. The lack of answers makes the authors assumption unwarranted. In conclus...
^^^^^^^
Line 7, column 489, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...kes the authors assumption unwarranted. In conclusion, the authors claim are fil...
^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, finally, first, firstly, furthermore, however, may, so, thus, well, as to, i think, in conclusion
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 12.0 19.6327345309 61% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 4.0 12.9520958084 31% => OK
Conjunction : 7.0 11.1786427146 63% => OK
Relative clauses : 3.0 13.6137724551 22% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 12.0 28.8173652695 42% => OK
Preposition: 50.0 55.5748502994 90% => OK
Nominalization: 17.0 16.3942115768 104% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1832.0 2260.96107784 81% => OK
No of words: 355.0 441.139720559 80% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.16056338028 5.12650576532 101% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.34067318298 4.56307096286 95% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.89007220631 2.78398813304 104% => OK
Unique words: 190.0 204.123752495 93% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.535211267606 0.468620217663 114% => OK
syllable_count: 569.7 705.55239521 81% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 14.0 8.76447105788 160% => OK
Subordination: 1.0 2.70958083832 37% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 20.0 19.7664670659 101% => OK
Sentence length: 17.0 22.8473053892 74% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 48.3657678529 57.8364921388 84% => OK
Chars per sentence: 91.6 119.503703932 77% => OK
Words per sentence: 17.75 23.324526521 76% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.15 5.70786347227 90% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 5.0 5.25449101796 95% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 7.0 8.20758483034 85% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.88822355289 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 8.0 4.67664670659 171% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.233584567336 0.218282227539 107% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0602003915921 0.0743258471296 81% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0778497978283 0.0701772020484 111% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.109852734849 0.128457276422 86% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0863971040346 0.0628817314937 137% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 11.7 14.3799401198 81% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 54.22 48.3550499002 112% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 9.9 12.197005988 81% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.35 12.5979740519 98% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.66 8.32208582834 104% => OK
difficult_words: 94.0 98.500998004 95% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.5 12.3882235529 93% => OK
gunning_fog: 8.8 11.1389221557 79% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.