The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
In the given paragraph, it is stated that there will be a high demand for heating oil in the northeastern US and investment is recommended in Consolidated Industries. The firm has come to this conclusion based on several premises, which if correct, could indicate that the argument holds water. However, as it stands now, the suggestion from the firm relies on three unwarranted assumptions, which diminishes the credibility of the recommendation.
First, the firm has failed to address the number of homes which still uses the traditional oil. The term “most” is not defined in itself. Perhaps, the number of homes in that region maybe low in the first place. If this is true, then the argument is weakened.
Second, the firm appears to believe the weather pattern will continue for several more years but fails to clarify how many years is referred by term “more”. Maybe the more is two years or 5 years. So, if this is proved to be correct, the argument will lose its strength.
Third, the firm blithely relates increment of new houses to demand curve of heating oil. There is a potential that the residents of new houses may not use the traditional oil like the locals. Perhaps, they may use any other source of heat. If this holds true, the argument will be undermined.
In conclusion, as it stands now, is considerably flawed to its reliance on several unwarranted assumptions. If the firm is able to prove these three assumptions wrong and provide more evidence, then it will be possible to fully evaluate the viability of the recommendation.
Comments
Essay evaluations by e-grader
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 2, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
In the given paragraph, it is stated tha...
^^^^^
Line 2, column 243, Rule ID: IF_IS[2]
Message: Did you mean 'is'?
Suggestion: is
...lusion based on several premises, which if correct, could indicate that the argume...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, first, however, if, may, second, so, still, then, third, in conclusion, in the first place
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 15.0 19.6327345309 76% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 8.0 12.9520958084 62% => OK
Conjunction : 4.0 11.1786427146 36% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 7.0 13.6137724551 51% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 18.0 28.8173652695 62% => OK
Preposition: 30.0 55.5748502994 54% => More preposition wanted.
Nominalization: 11.0 16.3942115768 67% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1301.0 2260.96107784 58% => More number of characters wanted.
No of words: 265.0 441.139720559 60% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 4.90943396226 5.12650576532 96% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.03470204552 4.56307096286 88% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.84247396494 2.78398813304 102% => OK
Unique words: 139.0 204.123752495 68% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.524528301887 0.468620217663 112% => OK
syllable_count: 393.3 705.55239521 56% => syllable counts are too short.
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 2.0 4.96107784431 40% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 6.0 2.70958083832 221% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 16.0 19.7664670659 81% => Need more sentences. Double check the format of sentences, make sure there is a space between two sentences, or have enough periods. And also check the lengths of sentences, maybe they are too long.
Sentence length: 16.0 22.8473053892 70% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 44.5265019399 57.8364921388 77% => OK
Chars per sentence: 81.3125 119.503703932 68% => OK
Words per sentence: 16.5625 23.324526521 71% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.9375 5.70786347227 104% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 2.0 8.20758483034 24% => More positive sentences wanted.
Sentences with negative sentiment : 9.0 6.88822355289 131% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.189122779252 0.218282227539 87% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0574151936456 0.0743258471296 77% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0587445728329 0.0701772020484 84% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0990388768507 0.128457276422 77% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0490288360837 0.0628817314937 78% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 10.0 14.3799401198 70% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 63.7 48.3550499002 132% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 8.4 12.197005988 69% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 10.9 12.5979740519 87% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.95 8.32208582834 96% => OK
difficult_words: 59.0 98.500998004 60% => More difficult words wanted.
linsear_write_formula: 8.5 12.3882235529 69% => OK
gunning_fog: 8.4 11.1389221557 75% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 2, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
In the given paragraph, it is stated tha...
^^^^^
Line 2, column 243, Rule ID: IF_IS[2]
Message: Did you mean 'is'?
Suggestion: is
...lusion based on several premises, which if correct, could indicate that the argume...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, first, however, if, may, second, so, still, then, third, in conclusion, in the first place
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 15.0 19.6327345309 76% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 8.0 12.9520958084 62% => OK
Conjunction : 4.0 11.1786427146 36% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 7.0 13.6137724551 51% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 18.0 28.8173652695 62% => OK
Preposition: 30.0 55.5748502994 54% => More preposition wanted.
Nominalization: 11.0 16.3942115768 67% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1301.0 2260.96107784 58% => More number of characters wanted.
No of words: 265.0 441.139720559 60% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 4.90943396226 5.12650576532 96% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.03470204552 4.56307096286 88% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.84247396494 2.78398813304 102% => OK
Unique words: 139.0 204.123752495 68% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.524528301887 0.468620217663 112% => OK
syllable_count: 393.3 705.55239521 56% => syllable counts are too short.
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 2.0 4.96107784431 40% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 6.0 2.70958083832 221% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 16.0 19.7664670659 81% => Need more sentences. Double check the format of sentences, make sure there is a space between two sentences, or have enough periods. And also check the lengths of sentences, maybe they are too long.
Sentence length: 16.0 22.8473053892 70% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 44.5265019399 57.8364921388 77% => OK
Chars per sentence: 81.3125 119.503703932 68% => OK
Words per sentence: 16.5625 23.324526521 71% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.9375 5.70786347227 104% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 2.0 8.20758483034 24% => More positive sentences wanted.
Sentences with negative sentiment : 9.0 6.88822355289 131% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.189122779252 0.218282227539 87% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0574151936456 0.0743258471296 77% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0587445728329 0.0701772020484 84% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0990388768507 0.128457276422 77% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0490288360837 0.0628817314937 78% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 10.0 14.3799401198 70% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 63.7 48.3550499002 132% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 8.4 12.197005988 69% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 10.9 12.5979740519 87% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.95 8.32208582834 96% => OK
difficult_words: 59.0 98.500998004 60% => More difficult words wanted.
linsear_write_formula: 8.5 12.3882235529 69% => OK
gunning_fog: 8.4 11.1389221557 75% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.