"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
This argument asserts that augmenting demand for heating oil is expected for the next few years in the northeastern area of the United States where winters are typically cold because the weather forecaster predicts that harsh weather conditions will continue during winter and numerous new homes are built in the region. However, the argument depends on several unsubstantiated assumptions and is therefore unpersuasive as it stands.
First, it is assumed that the tradition of using oil for heating will continue. It is possible that the demand for heating oil increases significantly during winters for the time being. If the demand went up with a steady supply, the price likely increases. With rising oil price, people will find alternative fuel such as natural gases or even woods. In this case, the heating consumption will not continue to increase and the sales price oil will decrease.
Moreover, the weather forecasts do not necessarily represent what is going to really happen during the next few years. It may be cold as predicted, but there is a chance that it would be warm due to global warming. Since the climate changes are most arbitrary and capricious, no forecaster can predict the weather condition in a few years later. Even with the advanced technologies of the present, it is not surprising that today’s weather does not agree with the forecast of yesterday. Thus, what forecasters say about the climate in the region after years cannot be strong support for the author’s argument.
Finally, the statement maintains that numerous new homes are being built for the incoming population who would use oil as a fuel for heating in winters. However, it is hard to conclude that people live in the new houses still use heating oil because new homes may come with many innovations such as a new heating system using gases or electricity. Unless the investigation is conducted about what type of heating systems is equipped with new homes, the fact that new homes being constructed in the region will not be the logical ground of the prediction.
In sum, there is not enough evidence to provide to support the author’s prediction about the demand for heating oil in the northeastern United States. In order for the prediction to be worthwhile and successful, the author would have to investigate about the market trend of the heating oil price along with alternative fuels, historical weather trend of the region for last 10 or 20 years, and the detail information about the new houses’ heating system.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 17 15
No. of Words: 419 350
No. of Characters: 2060 1500
No. of Different Words: 191 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.524 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.916 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.623 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 148 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 109 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 67 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 45 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 24.647 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 11.417 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.529 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.338 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.585 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.089 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
This argument asserts that augmenting de...
^^^^^^^^
Line 1, column 444, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...is therefore unpersuasive as it stands. First, it is assumed that the tradition ...
^^^^^^
Line 3, column 465, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
... and the sales price oil will decrease. Moreover, the weather forecasts do not n...
^^^^^^
Line 7, column 559, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...e the logical ground of the prediction. In sum, there is not enough evidence to ...
^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, finally, first, however, if, may, moreover, really, still, therefore, thus, while, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 23.0 19.6327345309 117% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 13.0 12.9520958084 100% => OK
Conjunction : 10.0 11.1786427146 89% => OK
Relative clauses : 11.0 13.6137724551 81% => OK
Pronoun: 18.0 28.8173652695 62% => OK
Preposition: 46.0 55.5748502994 83% => OK
Nominalization: 14.0 16.3942115768 85% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2137.0 2260.96107784 95% => OK
No of words: 419.0 441.139720559 95% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.10023866348 5.12650576532 99% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.52432199235 4.56307096286 99% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.77950449133 2.78398813304 100% => OK
Unique words: 200.0 204.123752495 98% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.477326968974 0.468620217663 102% => OK
syllable_count: 648.9 705.55239521 92% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 6.0 4.96107784431 121% => OK
Article: 7.0 8.76447105788 80% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 5.0 4.22255489022 118% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 17.0 19.7664670659 86% => OK
Sentence length: 24.0 22.8473053892 105% => OK
Sentence length SD: 70.3591380312 57.8364921388 122% => OK
Chars per sentence: 125.705882353 119.503703932 105% => OK
Words per sentence: 24.6470588235 23.324526521 106% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.58823529412 5.70786347227 98% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 4.0 5.25449101796 76% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 4.0 8.20758483034 49% => More positive sentences wanted.
Sentences with negative sentiment : 9.0 6.88822355289 131% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.29296107652 0.218282227539 134% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0977840573506 0.0743258471296 132% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0628047095787 0.0701772020484 89% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.16663359402 0.128457276422 130% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0288174326534 0.0628817314937 46% => Paragraphs are similar to each other. Some content may get duplicated or it is not exactly right on the topic.
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 14.9 14.3799401198 104% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 55.58 48.3550499002 115% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.5 12.197005988 94% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.6 12.5979740519 100% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.52 8.32208582834 102% => OK
difficult_words: 98.0 98.500998004 99% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.6 11.1389221557 104% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.