The following memorandum is from the president of Primo Doll Manufacturing, Inc.
“According to a survey last year of parents who purchased the Elkie, our most popular
doll, 90 percent reported that although their children were extremely satisfied with the
doll’s features, the doll quickly wore out with use. In a follow-up survey of the same
parents, 80 percent reported that they would recommend a more durable version of the
doll to their friends. In response to these surveys, we have created the Elkie-Advanced
Doll, which has similar features to the original Elkie Doll but is manufactured using the
same higher quality materials used by Optima Doll Manufacturing, our most successful
competitor. Because parents can now purchase the beloved Elkie doll and be sure that it
won’t quickly wear out with use, we predict that our profits will exceed those of Optima
Doll Manufacturing this year.”
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order
to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be
sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The writer of this analytical piece has drawn an optimistic conclusion from a disjointed idea that the profits of the Primo Doll Manufacturing company will definitely rise, after they have created the Elkie-Advanced Doll . In support of this argument he has mentioned that a large share of parents who bought the Elkie doll, complained about its low durability but their children were satisfied with the features of the doll and agreed that they would recommend a more durable version of the doll to their friends. Thus developing a Elkie Advanced doll, which has similar features but is made from superior quality materials, will definitely increase their profits over those of a rival company. The argument seems plausible at the first glance. However, a deeper analysis reveals that three major questions need to be answered in order to appropriately evaluate it.
To begin with, the writer has optimistically assumed that the intial survey and the the follow up survey were enough to garner appropriate statistics. However, before making this prediction the question that must be answered is whether a sufficient proportion of parents who bought the doll were surveyed. Also, how many of those participated in the follow up survey? It is possible that only a few parents of all those who bought the doll were surveyed. At the same time, there is a possibility that a small share of the ones who participated in the initial survey agreed to participate in the follow up survey. If these scenarios are indeed true, then the argument of the author is significantly weakened.
Secondly, though in the survey the parents have claimed that they will recommend the durable version of the Elkie doll to their friends, it does not imply that this will guarantee higher sales of the new version of the doll. The question that needs to be answered here is whether they will actually recommend this Elkie-Advanced Doll and how many of their friends will go ahead and buy the doll after taking into consideration this recommendation. It is possible that the survey had leading questions that prompted most of the parents into answering that they would recommend a durable version of the doll. Also, their friends might not take their recommendation seriously and thus, inspite of the new doll with higher quality being manufactured, the sales may not rise.
Finally, the last question that must be answered is that, what is the price of the advanced Elkie doll? Since the quality of materials used is higher, the prices of the doll must have also increased. It is likely that it is much more expensive than the older version of the doll or even the dolls sold by the Optima Doll Manufacturing Company. This, if true, can discourage a large number of parents from buying the new doll.
Therefore, the argument as it stands is based on a number of wishy washy observations that need not be true. Unless the author bolsters it with sufficient evidence and answers the above mentioned questions with sufficient evidence, his argument that the production of the Elkie Advanced Doll will most certainly increase their profits over the rival company, does not hold much water.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 7 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 5 2
No. of Sentences: 21 15
No. of Words: 529 350
No. of Characters: 2583 1500
No. of Different Words: 225 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.796 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.883 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.647 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 172 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 132 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 89 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 55 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 25.19 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 10.55 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.714 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.347 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.545 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.086 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 221, Rule ID: COMMA_PARENTHESIS_WHITESPACE
Message: Don't put a space before the full stop
Suggestion: .
...hey have created the Elkie-Advanced Doll . In support of this argument he has ment...
^^
Line 1, column 532, Rule ID: EN_A_VS_AN
Message: Use 'an' instead of 'a' if the following word starts with a vowel sound, e.g. 'an article', 'an hour'
Suggestion: an
... doll to their friends. Thus developing a Elkie Advanced doll, which has similar ...
^
Line 5, column 81, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a word
Suggestion: the
...ally assumed that the intial survey and the the follow up survey were enough to garner ...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 81, Rule ID: DT_DT[1]
Message: Maybe you need to remove one determiner so that only 'the' or 'the' is left.
Suggestion: the; the
...ally assumed that the intial survey and the the follow up survey were enough to garner ...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 85, Rule ID: A_INFINITVE[1]
Message: Probably a wrong construction: a/the + infinitive
... assumed that the intial survey and the the follow up survey were enough to garner appropr...
^^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 347, Rule ID: A_INFINITVE[1]
Message: Probably a wrong construction: a/the + infinitive
...Also, how many of those participated in the follow up survey? It is possible that only a f...
^^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 592, Rule ID: A_INFINITVE[1]
Message: Probably a wrong construction: a/the + infinitive
...initial survey agreed to participate in the follow up survey. If these scenarios are indee...
^^^^^^^^^^
Line 13, column 375, Rule ID: LARGE_NUMBER_OF[1]
Message: Specify a number, remove phrase, or simply use 'many' or 'numerous'
Suggestion: many; numerous
... Company. This, if true, can discourage a large number of parents from buying the new doll. ...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
actually, also, but, finally, first, however, if, may, second, secondly, so, then, therefore, thus, to begin with
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 24.0 19.6327345309 122% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 17.0 12.9520958084 131% => OK
Conjunction : 9.0 11.1786427146 81% => OK
Relative clauses : 24.0 13.6137724551 176% => OK
Pronoun: 53.0 28.8173652695 184% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 65.0 55.5748502994 117% => OK
Nominalization: 16.0 16.3942115768 98% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2659.0 2260.96107784 118% => OK
No of words: 529.0 441.139720559 120% => OK
Chars per words: 5.02646502836 5.12650576532 98% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.79583152331 4.56307096286 105% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.70080417332 2.78398813304 97% => OK
Unique words: 235.0 204.123752495 115% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.444234404537 0.468620217663 95% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 814.5 705.55239521 115% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 6.0 4.96107784431 121% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 7.0 2.70958083832 258% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 6.0 4.22255489022 142% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 21.0 19.7664670659 106% => OK
Sentence length: 25.0 22.8473053892 109% => OK
Sentence length SD: 65.6834641315 57.8364921388 114% => OK
Chars per sentence: 126.619047619 119.503703932 106% => OK
Words per sentence: 25.1904761905 23.324526521 108% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.38095238095 5.70786347227 94% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 8.0 5.25449101796 152% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 13.0 8.20758483034 158% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 3.0 6.88822355289 44% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 5.0 4.67664670659 107% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.358413825237 0.218282227539 164% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.117717859145 0.0743258471296 158% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0746650221945 0.0701772020484 106% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.216817617868 0.128457276422 169% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0618987192858 0.0628817314937 98% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 14.9 14.3799401198 104% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 54.56 48.3550499002 113% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.9 12.197005988 98% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.19 12.5979740519 97% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.98 8.32208582834 96% => OK
difficult_words: 104.0 98.500998004 106% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 19.0 12.3882235529 153% => OK
gunning_fog: 12.0 11.1389221557 108% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.