Essay topics: The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population on Balmer Island doubles during the summer months. During the summer, then, the town council of Balmer Island should decrease the maximum number of moped rentals allowed at each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day. This will significantly reduce the number of summertime accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. The neighboring island of Torseau actually saw a 50 percent reduction in moped accidents last year when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals. To help reduce moped accidents, therefore, we should also enforce these limitations during the summer months."
The author in the letter advocates the limitations of the number of moped on Balmer Island, which people believe will reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, just as the neighboring island of Torseau did, where the moped accidents had a 50 percent reduction last year. Based on the arguments offered, however, the expected result seems to hardly be achieved, since the assumptions on which the arguments rest are problematic.
One assumption is that the growing population in the summer definitely cause the accidents of moped on Balmer Island. If people all drive moped safely and orderly, traffic accidents will not rise. Meanwhile, the majority of people take public transportation like bus, a means more convenient and cheaper, so traffic problems on Balmer Island may be the same as before. After all, economy and safety are the top priority people travel. Moreover, the population on Balmer Island doubles during the summer months. How much are two folds on earth? If the figure starts from a low base, the restriction may be dispensable. Make sure that the correlation between the change of population and mope accidents on Balmer Island, or the reduction of mope accidents will be unfeasible.
Another implicit assumption is that reducing the number of mopeds, from the maximum number of 50 per day to 30 per day of each of six moped rental companies, certainly decreases the number of moped accidents on Balmer Island. There is a big question——the fewer mopeds, the fewer moped accidents. Will thirty per day for each rental company ensure the relatively low moped accidents? If moped drivers recklessly run on the roads, moped accidents will still occur or increase no matter how many mopeds. Perhaps local people instead of outsiders drive their own mopeds regardless of traffic rules, leading to the serious moped accidents. In the end, it is useless to reduce the number of moped accidents by a restriction on moped rentals.
Additionally, each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies will be demanded to decrease the number of moped rentals. Not positively receiving the policy, they may well take full advantage of the summer holidays(the golden times for them) to develop their business, because they not only believe that this is the good chance to develop their business, but that the number of moped rented does not decide that of moped accidents. So, it is necessary to analyze the negative influence of such limitation on relative industries like rental companies.
Last but not least, the author introduces the neighboring island of Torseau as a role model, where the moped accidents reduced 50 percent last year after having implemented similar limits on moped rentals. Perhaps, both places are not comparable. Often the same policy may produce varied effects on different districts in view of divergent conditions. For instance, traffic conditions and facilities on Balmer Island are far superior to that of Torseau. Even if the authority limits the number of moped rented, the number of moped accidents on Balmer Island will hardly decline, which can be caused by other factors like the inclement weather of cyclone in summer. Ensure whether both places have the same situations before introducing a role model Torseau.
In a nutshell, the information offered is insufficient to uphold the predicted result of limiting the number of moped rented, which conversely may produce unexpected negative influence on the economic development of Balmer Island.
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