The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be addressed in order to decide whether the conclusion and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to the questions would help to evaluate the conclusion.
The investment advice given by the firm suggests the client to invest in Consolidated Industry due to their prediction of heating oil demands. However, there are several questions that need to be answered in order to make wise investments.
The firm mentioned that the forecasters predicted that the weather pattern will continue to be cold for more years. However, what are the backgrounds and education level of the forecasters? Are they college graduates that predict weather patterns based on lousy excel models and making wild guesses? The predictions may be based on wrong data or simplified factors due to their lack of equipments and experience. The firm must provide the forecasters backgrounds and their level of experience.
The letter also mentioned that due to the new housing being built, there will be an increase in heating oil demand. However, is heating oil the only method of heating? New homes being built may be equipped with advanced heating facilities such as electronic heater or indoor heating pipes other than heating oil.
Therefore the increased of demand towards heating oil is unknown.
The firm didn't mention the long run population trend. Does the population growth remains high in the next ten or twenty years? Or is the population growth a short term response due to the low prices of housing on government subsides? The population might even decrease if the residents found out that the cold weather will continue for a long time and thus can't forebear the low temperatures. The firm assumed that the population growth will still be increasing without providing any evidence of future trends.
The firm recommended to invest on Consolidated Industries but provide no information about the company. What is the market share of Consolidates Industry? If there are bigger companies that sells heating oil which is a monopoly in the market. Then investing in a small company like Consolidates Industry won't be a bright idea. Also, does a retailer makes profit in selling heating oil? Or the manufactor that makes it ? Apple makes a lot of money selling iPhones but its retailer doesn't. Therefore, the firm should answer that whether retailers in heating oil makes money and the market share of the company.
Finally, is this the right time to invest? Or is it too late? Climate forecasts aren't a secret and people can realize that new houses are being built. Which makes people and other companies start to invest in heating oil. The information may be old now in a investment aspect and investing now may not make a large profit. Therefore, more information about the market dynamics need to be provided also.
The investment firm must first answer the questions above to give recommendations for others to invest.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 30 15
No. of Words: 458 350
No. of Characters: 2251 1500
No. of Different Words: 218 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.626 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.915 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.642 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 161 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 121 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 76 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 55 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 15.267 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 6.186 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.6 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.261 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.542 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.07 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 8 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 9, column 1, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Three successive sentences begin with the same word. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
...nds and their level of experience. The letter also mentioned that due to the n...
^^^
Line 11, column 1, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Therefore,
...heating pipes other than heating oil. Therefore the increased of demand towards heating...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 15, column 10, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: didn't
...s heating oil is unknown. The firm didnt mention the long run population trend. ...
^^^^^
Line 15, column 82, Rule ID: DOES_NP_VBZ[1]
Message: Did you mean 'remain'?
Suggestion: remain
...ation trend. Does the population growth remains high in the next ten or twenty years? O...
^^^^^^^
Line 15, column 358, Rule ID: CANT[1]
Message: Did you mean 'can't' or 'cannot'?
Suggestion: can't; cannot
... will continue for a long time and thus cant forebear the low temperatures. The firm...
^^^^
Line 19, column 1, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Three successive sentences begin with the same word. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
...ing any evidence of future trends. The firm recommended to invest on Consolida...
^^^
Line 19, column 10, Rule ID: ADMIT_ENJOY_VB[1]
Message: This verb is used with the gerund form: 'recommended investing'.
Suggestion: recommended investing
...vidence of future trends. The firm recommended to invest on Consolidated Industries but provide ...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 19, column 156, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
... market share of Consolidates Industry? If there are bigger companies that sells h...
^^
Line 19, column 350, Rule ID: DOES_NP_VBZ[1]
Message: Did you mean 'make'?
Suggestion: make
...be a bright idea. Also, does a retailer makes profit in selling heating oil? Or the m...
^^^^^
Line 19, column 481, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: doesn't
... money selling iPhones but its retailer doesnt. Therefore, the firm should answer that...
^^^^^^
Line 23, column 81, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: aren't
...t? Or is it too late? Climate forecasts arent a secret and people can realize that n...
^^^^^
Line 23, column 86, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
... is it too late? Climate forecasts arent a secret and people can realize that new...
^^
Line 23, column 258, Rule ID: EN_A_VS_AN
Message: Use 'an' instead of 'a' if the following word starts with a vowel sound, e.g. 'an article', 'an hour'
Suggestion: an
... oil. The information may be old now in a investment aspect and investing now may...
^
Line 23, column 399, Rule ID: ALSO_SENT_END[1]
Message: 'Also' is not used at the end of the sentence. Use 'as well' instead.
Suggestion: as well
...the market dynamics need to be provided also. The investment firm must first an...
^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, finally, first, however, if, may, so, still, then, therefore, thus, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 24.0 19.6327345309 122% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 15.0 12.9520958084 116% => OK
Conjunction : 17.0 11.1786427146 152% => OK
Relative clauses : 13.0 13.6137724551 95% => OK
Pronoun: 19.0 28.8173652695 66% => OK
Preposition: 47.0 55.5748502994 85% => OK
Nominalization: 18.0 16.3942115768 110% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2324.0 2260.96107784 103% => OK
No of words: 454.0 441.139720559 103% => OK
Chars per words: 5.11894273128 5.12650576532 100% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.61598047577 4.56307096286 101% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.70196518624 2.78398813304 97% => OK
Unique words: 227.0 204.123752495 111% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.5 0.468620217663 107% => OK
syllable_count: 704.7 705.55239521 100% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 0.0 4.96107784431 0% => OK
Article: 12.0 8.76447105788 137% => OK
Subordination: 1.0 2.70958083832 37% => OK
Conjunction: 3.0 1.67365269461 179% => OK
Preposition: 0.0 4.22255489022 0% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 31.0 19.7664670659 157% => OK
Sentence length: 14.0 22.8473053892 61% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 32.7204919451 57.8364921388 57% => The essay contains lots of sentences with the similar length. More sentence varieties wanted.
Chars per sentence: 74.9677419355 119.503703932 63% => OK
Words per sentence: 14.6451612903 23.324526521 63% => OK
Discourse Markers: 2.77419354839 5.70786347227 49% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 8.0 5.15768463074 155% => Less paragraphs wanted.
Language errors: 14.0 5.25449101796 266% => Less language errors wanted.
Sentences with positive sentiment : 13.0 8.20758483034 158% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 4.0 6.88822355289 58% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 14.0 4.67664670659 299% => Less facts, knowledge or examples wanted.
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.187089102176 0.218282227539 86% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.052029893147 0.0743258471296 70% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0502941153576 0.0701772020484 72% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.098733223251 0.128457276422 77% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0321610645689 0.0628817314937 51% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 10.0 14.3799401198 70% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 57.27 48.3550499002 118% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 8.8 12.197005988 72% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.82 12.5979740519 94% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.95 8.32208582834 96% => OK
difficult_words: 104.0 98.500998004 106% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.0 12.3882235529 65% => OK
gunning_fog: 7.6 11.1389221557 68% => OK
text_standard: 8.0 11.9071856287 67% => The average readability is low. Need to imporve the language.
What are above readability scores?
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Maximum six paragraphs wanted.
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.