The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The advice suggests that the industry related to heating oil is worthy of investment because of climate change and foreseeable population growth. However, the advice is not convincing before we clarify some unstated assumptions.
The paragraph says, "climate forecasters predict that the below-normal temperature will last for several years. Who are forecasters? Are they well-trained professionals who work in the weather forecast bureau or just second-year students with climate-related majors? If they are merely second-year students, then the forecast probably is one of their final projects and its credibility is questionable. Even if the forecasters are professionals, what's the assumption of their forecasting model? It's quite hard to predict the long-term climate in a region: a butterfly swinging its wings in the western Pacific Ocean can induce the hurricane in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The advice also mentioned that many new homes are built to catch on the demand of the growing population. The reason seems entirely plausible, but did the author compare the growth rate of the region to other regions in the country? If all the areas in the country have high rates of newly built houses, then maybe the population growth keeps flat, while the tremendous funds are rushing into the housing market.
The advice maintains that the client should invest in the heating oil industry since the area's population will increase. Well, for residents in distant place, heating oil may be the only heating resources so the reason is sound. What if the region is near the city? Newly built houses are usually equipped with the electric heater to warm up the home and therefore the residents doesn't have to purchase heating oil.
The unstated assumptions mentioned above need to verify before the author give the advice to the client.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 16 15
No. of Words: 295 350
No. of Characters: 1516 1500
No. of Different Words: 168 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.144 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.139 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.714 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 118 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 83 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 54 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 37 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 18.438 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 7.132 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.562 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.306 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.568 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.071 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 118, Rule ID: WHO_NOUN[1]
Message: A noun should not follow "who". Try changing to a verb or maybe to 'who is a are'.
Suggestion: Who is a are
...emperature will last for several years. Who are forecasters? Are they well-trained prof...
^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 452, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: what's
...n if the forecasters are professionals, whats the assumption of their forecasting mod...
^^^^^
Line 7, column 90, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'areas'' or 'area's'?
Suggestion: areas'; area's
...t in the heating oil industry since the areas population will increase. Well, for res...
^^^^^
Line 7, column 380, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: doesn't
...up the home and therefore the residents doesnt have to purchase heating oil. The un...
^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, however, if, may, second, so, then, therefore, well, while
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 14.0 19.6327345309 71% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 6.0 12.9520958084 46% => OK
Conjunction : 5.0 11.1786427146 45% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 6.0 13.6137724551 44% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 12.0 28.8173652695 42% => OK
Preposition: 34.0 55.5748502994 61% => OK
Nominalization: 6.0 16.3942115768 37% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1561.0 2260.96107784 69% => OK
No of words: 294.0 441.139720559 67% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.30952380952 5.12650576532 104% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.14082457966 4.56307096286 91% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.81146059974 2.78398813304 101% => OK
Unique words: 173.0 204.123752495 85% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.58843537415 0.468620217663 126% => OK
syllable_count: 482.4 705.55239521 68% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 1.0 4.96107784431 20% => OK
Article: 7.0 8.76447105788 80% => OK
Subordination: 4.0 2.70958083832 148% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 0.0 4.22255489022 0% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 16.0 19.7664670659 81% => Need more sentences. Double check the format of sentences, make sure there is a space between two sentences, or have enough periods. And also check the lengths of sentences, maybe they are too long.
Sentence length: 18.0 22.8473053892 79% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 41.6990238945 57.8364921388 72% => OK
Chars per sentence: 97.5625 119.503703932 82% => OK
Words per sentence: 18.375 23.324526521 79% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.3125 5.70786347227 76% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 4.0 5.25449101796 76% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 7.0 8.20758483034 85% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 3.0 6.88822355289 44% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.180366204809 0.218282227539 83% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0544738723405 0.0743258471296 73% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0563896286498 0.0701772020484 80% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.095881368183 0.128457276422 75% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.071777682808 0.0628817314937 114% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.8 14.3799401198 89% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 53.21 48.3550499002 110% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.3 12.197005988 84% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.52 12.5979740519 107% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.99 8.32208582834 108% => OK
difficult_words: 83.0 98.500998004 84% => More difficult words wanted.
linsear_write_formula: 8.0 12.3882235529 65% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.2 11.1389221557 83% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 54.17 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.25 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.