The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client. "Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region W experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The statement that to fund on Consolidated Industries at first glance seems to be an obvious conclusion. However, there are hole and dubious assumptions under the claim.
To begin with, though climate forecasters predict the weather pattern for several years, but as the climate change is uncontrollable and unpredictable, how can the author warrant the prediction is tenable? Moreover, even the weather pattern will continue for a while, after the pattern ends, the need of heating oil can be eliminated sharply, the investors can possibly lose a lot of funds. The assumption about the weather pattern and thriving future need to be seen.
The other assumption is that as the need of heating oil is rising, the retailers’ profits can increase simultaneously. Nevertheless, it is presumable that there may have more companies to provide heating oil and the customers can buy those products directedly without retailers. The offers can surpass the needs which leads to the decreasing of price. Another outcome is that, with limited offers, the producers of heating oil can increase their price and the retailers are forced to be the defenders of price. This is not a doomed success If the heating oil is popular than before.
As the advance of eco-friendly consciousness and the technology, people may choose not to use heating oil which may cause air pollution. Instead, customers may tend to pursuit supplemented heating commodities that using electricity or other cleaner resources. The population is increasing in the area is not good for the temperature, too. Since more people can produce more exhaust air and can cause the temperature rising which is very common is big cities, if the W region is in basin, the situation will be more salient. In all likelihood, population growth does not relate to more consumption on heating oil.
In sum, with insufficient evidence and supportive data, the future prospects will probably not well because the power of pricing from the producers and the buyers, the heating oil need may be a fad after the pattern ends, and the replaced products with environmental concerns. Thus, the assumptions in the recommendation are unwarranted and leads to the untrustful statement.
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Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 125, Rule ID: THERE_RE_MANY
Message: Possible agreement error. Did you mean 'holes'?
... obvious conclusion. However, there are hole and dubious assumptions under the claim...
Line 3, column 358, Rule ID: MAY_COULD_POSSIBLY
Message: Use simply 'can'.
...an be eliminated sharply, the investors can possibly lose a lot of funds. The assumption abo...
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, first, however, if, may, moreover, nevertheless, so, thus, well, while, to begin with
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 22.0 19.6327345309 112% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 21.0 12.9520958084 162% => OK
Conjunction : 13.0 11.1786427146 116% => OK
Relative clauses : 8.0 13.6137724551 59% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 9.0 28.8173652695 31% => OK
Preposition: 39.0 55.5748502994 70% => OK
Nominalization: 13.0 16.3942115768 79% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1872.0 2260.96107784 83% => OK
No of words: 359.0 441.139720559 81% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.21448467967 5.12650576532 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.35284910392 4.56307096286 95% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.96934365311 2.78398813304 107% => OK
Unique words: 190.0 204.123752495 93% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.529247910864 0.468620217663 113% => OK
syllable_count: 569.7 705.55239521 81% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 2.0 4.96107784431 40% => OK
Article: 13.0 8.76447105788 148% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 7.0 4.22255489022 166% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 17.0 19.7664670659 86% => OK
Sentence length: 21.0 22.8473053892 92% => OK
Sentence length SD: 56.7577258738 57.8364921388 98% => OK
Chars per sentence: 110.117647059 119.503703932 92% => OK
Words per sentence: 21.1176470588 23.324526521 91% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.29411764706 5.70786347227 93% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 5.0 8.20758483034 61% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 6.0 6.88822355289 87% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.14861933243 0.218282227539 68% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0518441776372 0.0743258471296 70% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.041387172384 0.0701772020484 59% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0745744956667 0.128457276422 58% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.047434368762 0.0628817314937 75% => OK
automated_readability_index: 13.7 14.3799401198 95% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 50.16 48.3550499002 104% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.5 12.197005988 94% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.94 12.5979740519 103% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.94 8.32208582834 107% => OK
difficult_words: 97.0 98.500998004 98% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.4 11.1389221557 93% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 5 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 8 2
No. of Sentences: 17 15
No. of Words: 359 350
No. of Characters: 1811 1500
No. of Different Words: 185 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.353 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.045 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.873 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 131 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 109 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 64 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 52 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 21.118 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 9.399 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.647 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.318 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.578 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.086 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5