The following was written as a part of an application for a small-business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"Jazz music is extremely popular in the city of Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's annual jazz festival last summer, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Also, a number of well-known jazz musicians own homes in Monroe. Nevertheless, the nearest jazz club is over an hour away. Given the popularity of jazz in Monroe and a recent nationwide study indicating that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment, we predict that our new jazz music club in Monroe will be a tremendously profitable enterprise."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
In the application form of loan by small business group to open a new jazz house in the city had conjectured that the new jazz house in the city would be profitable. The applicants had come to this conclusion based on the fact that jazz music is very popular in the Monroe city : over 100,000 people visited the jazz music last summer. Furthermore, they made the conclusion based on the data that every year a proficient fan spends around $1000 on jazz entertainment. However, Before this conclusion can be made the applicants would be able to give answer to the following three questions.
Firstly, can we compare that the profit on the new jazz club would be same based on the flow of the people on last summer? Can this comparison which is made could be completely true for the new jazz club that it will be profitable? Perhaps, the new jazz club going to inaugurate in the city may not have same flow of the people as last year summer? The large population which visited the jazz entertainment may have come from the other city in the special occasion. The last year may have been declared as Jazz music year by the country; hence, the flow might have been in the myriad amount. So, if either of this scenario may have been true than the assumptions made on the argument would completely insignificant.
Furthermore, Can we surmise the profit of the new jazz club only on the basis that there are few popular jazz musician in the city? Can we considered that these musicians will also come to the new jazz club for their performance? Perhaps, these popular jazz musicians may have some share or investment in the other jazz club of the city. Maybe they have some contract with other club and they may not allowed to perform in other jazz club of the city. So, the applicants have made the baseless assumption without any certainty that the popular musician would come to their club for performance. So, If above scenario would be true then the assumptions made would be completely baseless.
Finally, Can we be sure that the only jazz music could be enough for assuring profit for the new jazz club? There may be the condition that the other jazz club may have better hospitality and food items along with the better jazz performance. The ornamentation may be the factor to allure the people to their club. So, if this would be true than considering profitable business based on only jazz in the new club would be misleading
In conclusion, as it stands now, the assumption made above are completely flawed due to its reliance on the baseless assumptions and evidence. The applicants should be able to answer to the above three question or should provide more evidence before the above conclusion can be considered. Otherwise concluded assumption may not assure the applicants to the profitable business.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 1 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 2 2
No. of Sentences: 22 15
No. of Words: 491 350
No. of Characters: 2274 1500
No. of Different Words: 171 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.707 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.631 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.498 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 122 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 92 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 72 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 53 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 22.318 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 6.608 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.818 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.399 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.399 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.199 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 1 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 111, Rule ID: THERE_RE_MANY[3]
Message: Possible agreement error. Did you mean 'musicians'?
Suggestion: musicians
...e basis that there are few popular jazz musician in the city? Can we considered that the...
^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 409, Rule ID: ALLOW_TO[2]
Message: Did you mean 'performing'? Or maybe you should add a pronoun? In active voice, 'allow' + 'to' takes an object, usually a pronoun.
Suggestion: performing
...ith other club and they may not allowed to perform in other jazz club of the city. So, the...
^^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 595, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[4]
Message: “So , If” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...uld come to their club for performance. So, If above scenario would be true then the a...
^^^^^^
Line 5, column 291, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Otherwise,
...the above conclusion can be considered. Otherwise concluded assumption may not assure the...
^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, finally, first, firstly, furthermore, hence, however, if, may, so, then, in conclusion
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 23.0 19.6327345309 117% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 33.0 12.9520958084 255% => Less auxiliary verb wanted.
Conjunction : 5.0 11.1786427146 45% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 12.0 13.6137724551 88% => OK
Pronoun: 30.0 28.8173652695 104% => OK
Preposition: 58.0 55.5748502994 104% => OK
Nominalization: 18.0 16.3942115768 110% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2321.0 2260.96107784 103% => OK
No of words: 491.0 441.139720559 111% => OK
Chars per words: 4.72708757637 5.12650576532 92% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.70728369723 4.56307096286 103% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.58980019957 2.78398813304 93% => OK
Unique words: 179.0 204.123752495 88% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.364562118126 0.468620217663 78% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 727.2 705.55239521 103% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 2.0 4.96107784431 40% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 22.0 19.7664670659 111% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 37.1394513015 57.8364921388 64% => OK
Chars per sentence: 105.5 119.503703932 88% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.3181818182 23.324526521 96% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.18181818182 5.70786347227 73% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 4.0 5.25449101796 76% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 14.0 8.20758483034 171% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 1.0 6.88822355289 15% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 7.0 4.67664670659 150% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.2375372655 0.218282227539 109% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0923165670108 0.0743258471296 124% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0947518292184 0.0701772020484 135% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.152471370472 0.128457276422 119% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.113121148101 0.0628817314937 180% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.0 14.3799401198 83% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 57.61 48.3550499002 119% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.7 12.197005988 88% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 10.45 12.5979740519 83% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.14 8.32208582834 86% => OK
difficult_words: 75.0 98.500998004 76% => More difficult words wanted.
linsear_write_formula: 13.5 12.3882235529 109% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.