"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The prediction that the demand for heating oil will aggrandize and the recommendation of investment in business involved in heating oil is strengthened by several convincing evidence at first glance, but further reflection reveals that these evidences not successfully constitute a logical statement in support of its conclusion.
To begin with, the author asserts that oil is the major fuel for heating in the northeastern United States traditionally. So that the article assumes that they will keep using oil now and in the future. Although it makes sense to some extent, it is quite possible that because of the increasing demand of oil, the oil price goes high; and then the high price leads the residents to change their custom to other accessible fuel, such as coal and gas. Moreover, the letter has mentioned that population growth is upcoming; it would be more convincing if the youngers and the people come from other region bring them the new idea of using other fuel to shrink daily spending. Until the author provides further clue to exclude all these possibilities, it is unfounded to reach the author’s conclusion straightly.
The author’s assumption that this region will continue an extreme low temperature is still unwarranted. First, the author believes that 90 days below-normal temperature is serious cold weather, it is much more possible that the temperature is just one or two degrees below normal temperatures, so the temperature does not make sense. Secondly, the author says that that climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several years. How many years means several years? Three years? Five years? If the intemperate weather cannot keep up for enough time for the market of oil to react, the prediction made by the author is unjustified apparently. Therefore, before predicting the demand of oil to increase, a more complete understanding of the coming temperature and the time of cold weather pattern’s duration would be helpful.
Finally, the article’s reliance on the population growth is also problematic in two respects. First, are these additional residents willing to buy new houses? It is equally likely that they are floating population, so that they can just rent apartments as their new homes. And maybe they will leave northeastern United States in winter, and come back next spring. In China, people works in Beijing all come back to their homeland and stay with their families during the winter, since the Spring Festival in China is period time for families to get together. Secondly, even if they could afford the new houses, another piece of evidence is needed—that is, whether or not the new built houses’ heating fuel is oil. Admittedly, heating oil is an effective and convenient method for houses. However, it is entirely possible that according to the notion of environmental friendly, new houses are designed with gas burning rather than oil burning. Without ruling out this possibility, the conclusion is not defensible.
In conclusion, the letter’s author fails to adequately support the prediction and the recommendation. To strengthen the argument, the author must provide dear evidence that the residents in that region will continue their tradition of using oil, and the weather will keep intemperate for a relatively long time. To better evaluate the argument, we need more information about the population growth.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
argument 1 -- OK
argument 2 -- not exactly. In GRE, better to agree the evidence is true,but we try to find out loopholes. like in this topic, we accept the cold weather pattern: 90 days with below-normal temperatures will continue. the loophole is:
1. maybe there are more days with above-normal temperatures in winter
2. or maybe there are some colder summers
argument 3 -- not exactly. it told that:
many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth.
and in GRE, better not to use external examples.
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samples:
https://www.testbig.com/gmatgre-argument-task-essays/following-appeared…
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 26 15
No. of Words: 548 350
No. of Characters: 2794 1500
No. of Different Words: 266 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.838 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.099 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.734 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 205 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 151 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 109 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 69 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 21.077 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 12.216 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.615 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.264 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.455 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.13 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 5, column 472, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'years'' or 'year's'?
Suggestion: years'; year's
...ll continue for several years. How many years means several years? Three years? Five ...
^^^^^
Line 7, column 661, Rule ID: WHETHER[7]
Message: Perhaps you can shorten this phrase to just 'whether'. It is correct though if you mean 'regardless of whether'.
Suggestion: whether
...er piece of evidence is needed—that is, whether or not the new built houses' heating fuel...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, apparently, but, finally, first, however, if, may, moreover, second, secondly, so, still, then, therefore, in conclusion, such as, to begin with
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 24.0 19.6327345309 122% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 14.0 12.9520958084 108% => OK
Conjunction : 15.0 11.1786427146 134% => OK
Relative clauses : 19.0 13.6137724551 140% => OK
Pronoun: 45.0 28.8173652695 156% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 59.0 55.5748502994 106% => OK
Nominalization: 22.0 16.3942115768 134% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2903.0 2260.96107784 128% => OK
No of words: 547.0 441.139720559 124% => OK
Chars per words: 5.3071297989 5.12650576532 104% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.83611736076 4.56307096286 106% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.95170212105 2.78398813304 106% => OK
Unique words: 282.0 204.123752495 138% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.515539305302 0.468620217663 110% => OK
syllable_count: 885.6 705.55239521 126% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 7.0 4.96107784431 141% => OK
Article: 13.0 8.76447105788 148% => OK
Subordination: 8.0 2.70958083832 295% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 5.0 1.67365269461 299% => Less conjunction wanted as sentence beginning.
Preposition: 9.0 4.22255489022 213% => Less preposition wanted as sentence beginnings.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 24.0 19.7664670659 121% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 74.3028745054 57.8364921388 128% => OK
Chars per sentence: 120.958333333 119.503703932 101% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.7916666667 23.324526521 98% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.25 5.70786347227 109% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 2.0 5.25449101796 38% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 11.0 8.20758483034 134% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 6.0 6.88822355289 87% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 9.0 4.67664670659 192% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.263878745311 0.218282227539 121% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0716024140639 0.0743258471296 96% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.110619154523 0.0701772020484 158% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.175234912348 0.128457276422 136% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.108071573494 0.0628817314937 172% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 15.0 14.3799401198 104% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 49.15 48.3550499002 102% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.9 12.197005988 98% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.81 12.5979740519 110% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.54 8.32208582834 103% => OK
difficult_words: 132.0 98.500998004 134% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 13.5 12.3882235529 109% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 14.0 11.9071856287 118% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 83.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 5.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.