"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The author claims that due to below-normal temperatures for 3 months in the last heating season, the expectation that such trends will continue for several years and increased home production due to higher population growth, investment in consolidated industries should be made.
However, the recommendation is flawed because it does not provide statistical data regarding whether the households using oil as their major heating fuel are a generalizable sample for the entire region or not. Words like most, many and several are ambiguous in nature, and thus cannot be assumed to reflect the behavior patterns of the entire population.
Moreover, oil was traditionally used as a heating fuel. however, in the future, new resources might become popular due to better and efficient results, with low cost and renewability properties. such a discovery might make oil an obsolete fuel for the region, making the investment in consolidated industries not worthwhile.
Furthermore, predictions of continuing below-average temperatures for 3 months per year could prove wrong in the long-term, as they are not an irrefutable fact. Besides, increasing population does not necessarily translate into higher demand for home heating oil. The residents may look for other renewable sources of energy.
Conclusively, the recommendation to invest in consolidated industries, based on wrongly generalized information regarding use of home-heating oil, predictions of future weather conditions and trends of increasing home construction for the rising population, is unwarranted. It needs to be clarified whether the sample size of households surveyed is generalizable on the entire region or not. Moreover, oil may not remain the primary source of heating fuel in the near future, given advancements in technology, cost considerations etc. Moreover, increasing population may not translate into higher demand for home heating oil. Additionally, cold weather conditions might not prevail for a length of time adequate to justify the investment. Thus, further analysis is required before acting on the recommendation.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 9 2
No. of Sentences: 12 15
No. of Words: 314 350
No. of Characters: 1746 1500
No. of Different Words: 168 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.21 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.561 4.6
Word Length SD: 3.221 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 143 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 104 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 77 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 66 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 26.167 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 12.328 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.75 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.362 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.621 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.011 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 4, column 1, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...ior patterns of the entire population. Moreover, oil was traditionally used as ...
^^^
Line 5, column 57, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: However
...s traditionally used as a heating fuel. however, in the future, new resources might bec...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 196, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: Such
...h low cost and renewability properties. such a discovery might make oil an obsolete ...
^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
besides, furthermore, however, if, look, may, moreover, regarding, so, thus, while
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 11.0 19.6327345309 56% => More to be verbs wanted.
Auxiliary verbs: 10.0 12.9520958084 77% => OK
Conjunction : 8.0 11.1786427146 72% => OK
Relative clauses : 2.0 13.6137724551 15% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 6.0 28.8173652695 21% => OK
Preposition: 38.0 55.5748502994 68% => OK
Nominalization: 15.0 16.3942115768 91% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1799.0 2260.96107784 80% => OK
No of words: 314.0 441.139720559 71% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.72929936306 5.12650576532 112% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.20951839842 4.56307096286 92% => OK
Word Length SD: 3.29761192248 2.78398813304 118% => OK
Unique words: 176.0 204.123752495 86% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.56050955414 0.468620217663 120% => OK
syllable_count: 564.3 705.55239521 80% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.8 1.59920159681 113% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 1.0 4.96107784431 20% => OK
Article: 5.0 8.76447105788 57% => OK
Subordination: 1.0 2.70958083832 37% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 15.0 19.7664670659 76% => Need more sentences. Double check the format of sentences, make sure there is a space between two sentences, or have enough periods. And also check the lengths of sentences, maybe they are too long.
Sentence length: 20.0 22.8473053892 88% => OK
Sentence length SD: 66.1515431919 57.8364921388 114% => OK
Chars per sentence: 119.933333333 119.503703932 100% => OK
Words per sentence: 20.9333333333 23.324526521 90% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.46666666667 5.70786347227 96% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 3.0 5.25449101796 57% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 5.0 8.20758483034 61% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 4.0 6.88822355289 58% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.24378586512 0.218282227539 112% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0828301704559 0.0743258471296 111% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0606276812075 0.0701772020484 86% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.137923758277 0.128457276422 107% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0183138836271 0.0628817314937 29% => Paragraphs are similar to each other. Some content may get duplicated or it is not exactly right on the topic.
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 16.0 14.3799401198 111% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 34.26 48.3550499002 71% => OK
smog_index: 11.2 7.1628742515 156% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 13.5 12.197005988 111% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 15.95 12.5979740519 127% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 9.2 8.32208582834 111% => OK
difficult_words: 91.0 98.500998004 92% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 20.0 12.3882235529 161% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.0 11.1389221557 90% => OK
text_standard: 16.0 11.9071856287 134% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 83.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 5.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.