Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea.
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
In the argument it is concluded that the reducing trend in the number of arctic deer populations is due to global warming and consequently melting the ices which were used by deer swarms as routs to migrate from island to island. However, this claim cannot be regarded a convincing argument since it lacks necessary evidences which support it. In what follows, the necessary information which is absent in the argument is presented and elucidated.
First, the conclusion in the argument is made mainly based on the reports from local hunters which expressed that the number of deer populations is declining, and the report coincides with the global warming. However, since the report of local hunters is not based on scientific methods, the report cannot be acceptable. More solid statistics and evidences such as the percent of decrease in the number of populations in the all area, not where hunters exits, are needed to be used in making a conclusion. Maybe the local hunters see fewer swarms because they have migrated to somewhere else to find better habitat; consequently, local hunters see less animals while their population is growing actually. Maybe the reduction in the number of swarm members is negligible; for example, one percent reduction is a reduction; however, it can be overlooked.
Second, the coincidence of reduction in the number of deer populations with global warming is alleged in the text; however, it cannot be used in the conclusion unless robust evidences are presented. Maybe the reduction of this kind of animals just coincides with the global warming haphazardly, and the actual factor for the reduction is something else. Maybe the number of animals has decreased because of over-hunting. Maybe a specific disease has caused the number of animals to decrease. Many other possibilities can collaborate in the reduction; as a result, precise observations and documentations are needed to make a robust conclusion.
Third, there is not any information in the argument showing when the declining number of deer swarms started. This important evidence may question conclusion dramatically. For example, if the reduction in the number of swarms started before global warming, it can be concluded that global warming might accelerated the reducing trend, but it is not the major reason. Maybe the growth of human population and cities has decreased their habitat area, and consequently, number of swarms.
To wrap up, whether or not the global warming and it effect on melting the ice route of the deer swarms is the main reason that caused a reduction in the number of deer swarms is just a hypothesis, and it can be admitted only if the evidences which were explained above all are presented and supports this statement.
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- integrated TOEFL writing 70
- TPO26 (integrated) 90
- TPO27(integrated) 80
Sentence: More solid statistics and evidences such as the percent of decrease in the number of populations in the all area, not where hunters exits, are needed to be used in making a conclusion.
Description: The token the is not usually followed by a determiner/pronoun, pre-quantifier
Suggestion: Refer to the and all
Sentence: For example, if the reduction in the number of swarms started before global warming, it can be concluded that global warming might accelerated the reducing trend, but it is not the major reason.
Description: The word might is not usually used as a noun, singular, common
Suggestion: Refer to might
argument 1 -- not OK.
argument 2 -- OK
argument 3 -- not OK
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