The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice to a client.
"Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Based on these developments, we predict a large increase in the demand for heating oil. Therefore, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The letter providing investment advice to its clients says that they should invest in Consolidated industries, whose major operation is the retail sale of home heating oil. It has given this advice because the firm thinks that demand for heating oil is going to go up in the near future. The firm has formed its opinion by using the fact that household in the northeastern states traditionally use heating oil, the weather forecasts and the large number of new homes built there. However, these reasons have to be substantiated with enough evidence to reach the conclusion which the firm already endorses.
Firstly, the firm advocates that the households have been using heating oil to warm up their homes in winter. But it does not quote any statistical measure of how many them still rely on heating oil. The use of the word "traditionally" makes us skeptical that maybe it were a thing of the past. Things once used traditionally can't be guaranteed to be used by the majority. Many reliable and efficient alternatives have come in the market like heat radiators that may prove more effective than the traditional system. So, until the percentage of the household is not mentioned nothing can be said concretely.
Secondly, the firm mentions weather forecasts as the reason for increase in demand. The forecasts mentioned are not a sure event. There is a probability that they might be off from their prediction. Even if they are on point, they mention that northeastern states will face below average temperatures, which can't be equated with long years of winter which the firm implies. Their claim regarding the increase in demand for heating oil rests upon their assumption of extended winter season which can't be predicted from the weather reports they mentioned.
Lastly, they correlate the newly made homes to the increase in demand but there are other major factors involved in this. What if the newly mad houses are not purchased by the people. It is probable that due to the weather forecast people who planned of shifting to Northeaster states won't shift. Also, the natives might be planning to move so some other warmer place thereby resulting a major decrease rather an increase for the demand of oil.
The firm should investigate further into the above mentioned points so that they can provide their clients a better and well-formed advice.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.5 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 8 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 2 2
No. of Sentences: 20 15
No. of Words: 396 350
No. of Characters: 1935 1500
No. of Different Words: 213 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.461 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.886 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.565 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 133 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 93 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 62 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 45 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 19.8 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 6.329 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.6 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.287 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.514 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.082 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 473, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
... and the large number of new homes built there. However, these reasons have to be...
^^
Line 3, column 337, Rule ID: CANT[1]
Message: Did you mean 'can't' or 'cannot'?
Suggestion: can't; cannot
...he past. Things once used traditionally cant be guaranteed to be used by the majorit...
^^^^
Line 3, column 528, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[4]
Message: “So , until” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
... effective than the traditional system. So, until the percentage of the household is not ...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 587, Rule ID: NOT_NOTHING[1]
Message: Double negation. You probably should say 'anything'.
Suggestion: anything
...ntage of the household is not mentioned nothing can be said concretely. Secondly, t...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 10, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...ing can be said concretely. Secondly, the firm mentions weather forecasts as t...
^^
Line 5, column 310, Rule ID: CANT[1]
Message: Did you mean 'can't' or 'cannot'?
Suggestion: can't; cannot
... face below average temperatures, which cant be equated with long years of winter w...
^^^^
Line 5, column 341, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...s, which cant be equated with long years of winter which the firm implies. Their ...
^^
Line 5, column 498, Rule ID: CANT[1]
Message: Did you mean 'can't' or 'cannot'?
Suggestion: can't; cannot
...umption of extended winter season which cant be predicted from the weather reports t...
^^^^
Line 7, column 140, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...tors involved in this. What if the newly mad houses are not purchased by the peop...
^^
Line 9, column 28, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...d of oil. The firm should investigate further into the above mentioned points ...
^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, firstly, however, if, lastly, may, regarding, second, secondly, so, still, well, as for
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 19.0 19.6327345309 97% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 8.0 12.9520958084 62% => OK
Conjunction : 5.0 11.1786427146 45% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 16.0 13.6137724551 118% => OK
Pronoun: 33.0 28.8173652695 115% => OK
Preposition: 50.0 55.5748502994 90% => OK
Nominalization: 6.0 16.3942115768 37% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 1984.0 2260.96107784 88% => OK
No of words: 395.0 441.139720559 90% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.02278481013 5.12650576532 98% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.45809453852 4.56307096286 98% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.77460269678 2.78398813304 100% => OK
Unique words: 218.0 204.123752495 107% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.551898734177 0.468620217663 118% => OK
syllable_count: 612.9 705.55239521 87% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 6.0 4.96107784431 121% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 2.0 2.70958083832 74% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 20.0 19.7664670659 101% => OK
Sentence length: 19.0 22.8473053892 83% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 40.6932426823 57.8364921388 70% => OK
Chars per sentence: 99.2 119.503703932 83% => OK
Words per sentence: 19.75 23.324526521 85% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.25 5.70786347227 92% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 10.0 5.25449101796 190% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 4.0 6.88822355289 58% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 7.0 4.67664670659 150% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.318019501308 0.218282227539 146% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0887444254997 0.0743258471296 119% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0730718292276 0.0701772020484 104% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.166711835795 0.128457276422 130% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0877758304226 0.0628817314937 140% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.1 14.3799401198 84% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 52.19 48.3550499002 108% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.7 12.197005988 88% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.84 12.5979740519 94% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.22 8.32208582834 99% => OK
difficult_words: 91.0 98.500998004 92% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 13.5 12.3882235529 109% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.6 11.1389221557 86% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 83.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 5.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.