The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client which predicts that there will be an increased demand for heating oil as most homes in the northeastern united states have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating due to typically cold winters. The advisor also claims that the region had experienced 90 days with below normal temperatures at last heating season and includes the prediction of climate forecasters whose claims are that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. In the letter, it is mentioned that new homes are being built in that region due to recent population growth which predict the increasing demand for heating oil and further recommendation of investment in Consolidated industries whose major business operation is the retail sale of home heating oil. The argument seems plausible when observed per functionary, but at close scrutiny, it looks implausible due to presence of unwarranted assumptions. To make argument valid, it should be explained with valid reasoning which are stated below:
First of all, the argument comes to a hasty conclusion of increasing demand of heating oil in northeastern United States as most homes have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. It fails to conclude any relevant data of modern houses where modern equipment’s are used for heating purposes. It also prevails the conditions of typically cold but fails to organize any data of temperature variations at that region. It provides the data of last heating season where the region experienced 90 days of below normal temperature and predicts that the same conditions will continue for several more years which is vague to assume.
Secondly, the firm investing advisor’s claims of increasing demand of heating oil due to increasing of new homes followed by the increasing in population in that region which is full of fallacies to assume. It is possible that the new homes will include new possibilities of heating mechanism using electric energy or solar energies; by asserting new design of walls which provides new insulting devices for homes resulting in low heat transfer within the walls. This new layer of formation will naturally block heats that prevalence the desire temperature within the homes which decreases the demand of oils.
Thirdly, it is recommended to invest in Consolidated industries whose major business operation is the retail sale of home heating oil. It fails to infer the total amount of homes which depend on oil consumption for heating purposes. For instance, there are newly developed homes which use modern devices for heating purposes in comparison to traditional houses whose are solely depend on oil for heating. It is infeasible to recommend the establishment of consolidated industries to supply of oils for few homes. It is possible that the consolidated industries is in nearby villages or towns where transportation charges are few in comparison to establishment of industries. Moreover, the houses which are particularly depended on oil for heating purposes use oil from another brand which is cheap and economical in comparison to the price tag of referred industries. All these unstated assumptions are need to be explained explicitly before coming to any hasty conclusion.
In conclusion, the arguments as it stands now is full of fallacies and it should be supported with well formatted evidences in order to make argument plausible of increasing demand of oil in northeastern united states.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 12 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 2 2
No. of Sentences: 20 15
No. of Words: 562 350
No. of Characters: 2914 1500
No. of Different Words: 230 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.869 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.185 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.885 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 216 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 158 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 127 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 90 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 28.1 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 10.139 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.45 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.349 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.551 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.11 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 892, Rule ID: CLOSE_SCRUTINY[1]
Message: Use simply 'scrutiny'.
Suggestion: scrutiny
...e when observed per functionary, but at close scrutiny, it looks implausible due to presence o...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 432, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Three successive sentences begin with the same word. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
... temperature variations at that region. It provides the data of last heating seaso...
^^
Line 7, column 379, Rule ID: BEEN_PART_AGREEMENT[2]
Message: Consider using a past participle here: 'depended'.
Suggestion: depended
... to traditional houses whose are solely depend on oil for heating. It is infeasible to...
^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, first, look, moreover, second, secondly, so, third, thirdly, well, for instance, in conclusion, first of all
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 26.0 19.6327345309 132% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 8.0 12.9520958084 62% => OK
Conjunction : 9.0 11.1786427146 81% => OK
Relative clauses : 30.0 13.6137724551 220% => Less relative clauses wanted (maybe 'which' is over used).
Pronoun: 29.0 28.8173652695 101% => OK
Preposition: 84.0 55.5748502994 151% => OK
Nominalization: 20.0 16.3942115768 122% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2967.0 2260.96107784 131% => OK
No of words: 562.0 441.139720559 127% => OK
Chars per words: 5.2793594306 5.12650576532 103% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.86893614481 4.56307096286 107% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.9408828281 2.78398813304 106% => OK
Unique words: 237.0 204.123752495 116% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.421708185053 0.468620217663 90% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 934.2 705.55239521 132% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 12.0 4.96107784431 242% => Less pronouns wanted as sentence beginning.
Article: 7.0 8.76447105788 80% => OK
Subordination: 0.0 2.70958083832 0% => More adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 4.0 4.22255489022 95% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 19.0 19.7664670659 96% => OK
Sentence length: 29.0 22.8473053892 127% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively long.
Sentence length SD: 64.2883910976 57.8364921388 111% => OK
Chars per sentence: 156.157894737 119.503703932 131% => OK
Words per sentence: 29.5789473684 23.324526521 127% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.26315789474 5.70786347227 110% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 3.0 5.25449101796 57% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 5.0 8.20758483034 61% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 10.0 6.88822355289 145% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.454319674769 0.218282227539 208% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.150914365972 0.0743258471296 203% => Sentence topic similarity is high.
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.144119998415 0.0701772020484 205% => The coherence between sentences is low.
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.253786065124 0.128457276422 198% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.133458103913 0.0628817314937 212% => More connections among paragraphs wanted.
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 18.2 14.3799401198 127% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 33.58 48.3550499002 69% => OK
smog_index: 11.2 7.1628742515 156% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 15.8 12.197005988 130% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.94 12.5979740519 111% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.73 8.32208582834 105% => OK
difficult_words: 130.0 98.500998004 132% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 18.5 12.3882235529 149% => OK
gunning_fog: 13.6 11.1389221557 122% => OK
text_standard: 14.0 11.9071856287 118% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.