The following appeared in a letter from a firm providing investment advice for a client.
"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The author states an argument in favor of investing in an company called Consolidated Industries. They further justifies their conclusion with evidences that lack some clarity. They mentions that the oil is a major fuel in the United States and this utilization might increase in the coming winters with the growing population. It is also stated that the coming winter will be more harsher than the last with the help of a climate forecasters report. The author's claim depends upon major assumptions without which his entire plan of investing would collapse.
The author mentions that winters in the United States has seen more oil consumption than in other seasons. They also state that the oil is a major fuel. But they never mention about other heating resources like petroleum, natural gas, electric heaters and so on. Though oil is a majorly used fuel at present, it is wise to consider the alternatives people could adopt to inhibit the cold during winters in the future. Especially with the growing population, there is more probability that this newly immigrated people will come with their own alternatives for heat production and refuse to participate in the traditional oil usage. Unless more through statistics showing the guarantee usage of oil among people is given, it cannot be concluded that the oil will remain the majorly utilized fuel in the upcoming winters.
Additionally, the author also mentioned an analysis presented by the weather forecast that predicts a severe winter in the upcoming years. But the author fails to accommodate the credibility of this weather report in their argument. Weather forecasts is unpredictable and keeps changing everyday. There are very few stations that predict the weather accurately and yet they too have times when they were wrong. Hence, depending solely on the weather forecast to predict the temperatures of the winters is not enough and require further proof. Additional information or data needs to be acquired that confirms the authors claim's of harsh winters.
Furthermore, the author lauded the Consolidated Industries to be the ideal company to invest for a smooth and trouble-less winter. He praises their characteristic of being the major business operations in the retail sale of home heating oil but never mentions about their efficiency. To illustrate, imagine a company that produces large amounts of chocolates every year but these chocolates lack the quality to be edible. Though this company is known for their quantity they are resented in terms of quality. Adding to this, they are also known to be prone to infidelity and never live up to their end of bargains. Comparing the chocolate company to Consolidates Industries, no differences would be found until the author provides some information regarding the quality of the oil and vouches for their loyalty to help the citizens of the country.
In conclusion, the author has built his argument upon various assumptions that might dissolute his plans if proved wrong. They left many empty blanks unanswered and ended their argument on an ambiguous note and partial conclusions. Thoroughly researching and regrouping their data might be beneficial to the author to extend some credibility of their claims with least disapproval and resistance. Taking more concrete evidences and survey might add to this credibility and help them prosper their investments.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 10 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 4 2
No. of Sentences: 27 15
No. of Words: 543 350
No. of Characters: 2803 1500
No. of Different Words: 269 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.827 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.162 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.717 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 207 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 158 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 104 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 72 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 20.111 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 6.477 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.444 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.264 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.264 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.073 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 1 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 56, Rule ID: EN_A_VS_AN
Message: Use 'a' instead of 'an' if the following word doesn't start with a vowel sound, e.g. 'a sentence', 'a university'
Suggestion: a
...es an argument in favor of investing in an company called Consolidated Industries....
^^
Line 1, column 112, Rule ID: NON3PRS_VERB[2]
Message: The pronoun 'They' must be used with a non-third-person form of a verb: 'justify'
Suggestion: justify
...d Consolidated Industries. They further justifies their conclusion with evidences that la...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 1, column 183, Rule ID: NON3PRS_VERB[2]
Message: The pronoun 'They' must be used with a non-third-person form of a verb: 'mention'
Suggestion: mention
... evidences that lack some clarity. They mentions that the oil is a major fuel in the Uni...
^^^^^^^^
Line 1, column 378, Rule ID: MOST_COMPARATIVE[2]
Message: Use only 'harsher' (without 'more') when you use the comparative.
Suggestion: harsher
...o stated that the coming winter will be more harsher than the last with the help of a climat...
^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 2, column 363, Rule ID: ADOPT_TO[1]
Message: Did you mean 'adapt to'?
Suggestion: adapt to
... consider the alternatives people could adopt to inhibit the cold during winters in the ...
^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 287, Rule ID: EVERYDAY_EVERY_DAY[3]
Message: 'Everyday' is an adjective. Did you mean 'every day'?
Suggestion: every day
...sts is unpredictable and keeps changing everyday. There are very few stations that predi...
^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 358, Rule ID: THE_SUPERLATIVE[3]
Message: A determiner is probably missing here: 'with the least'.
Suggestion: with the least
...extend some credibility of their claims with least disapproval and resistance. Taking more...
^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, furthermore, hence, if, regarding, so, in conclusion
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 23.0 19.6327345309 117% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 11.0 12.9520958084 85% => OK
Conjunction : 21.0 11.1786427146 188% => OK
Relative clauses : 14.0 13.6137724551 103% => OK
Pronoun: 48.0 28.8173652695 167% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 71.0 55.5748502994 128% => OK
Nominalization: 13.0 16.3942115768 79% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2848.0 2260.96107784 126% => OK
No of words: 543.0 441.139720559 123% => OK
Chars per words: 5.24493554328 5.12650576532 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.82725184711 4.56307096286 106% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.78387380568 2.78398813304 100% => OK
Unique words: 271.0 204.123752495 133% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.499079189687 0.468620217663 106% => OK
syllable_count: 891.9 705.55239521 126% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 9.0 4.96107784431 181% => OK
Article: 6.0 8.76447105788 68% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 27.0 19.7664670659 137% => OK
Sentence length: 20.0 22.8473053892 88% => OK
Sentence length SD: 40.9876357281 57.8364921388 71% => OK
Chars per sentence: 105.481481481 119.503703932 88% => OK
Words per sentence: 20.1111111111 23.324526521 86% => OK
Discourse Markers: 2.33333333333 5.70786347227 41% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 7.0 5.25449101796 133% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 12.0 8.20758483034 146% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 11.0 6.88822355289 160% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.213573489668 0.218282227539 98% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0611694939528 0.0743258471296 82% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0516040163707 0.0701772020484 74% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.118583466366 0.128457276422 92% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0736523372207 0.0628817314937 117% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.3 14.3799401198 92% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 51.18 48.3550499002 106% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.11 12.5979740519 104% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.79 8.32208582834 106% => OK
difficult_words: 143.0 98.500998004 145% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.0 12.3882235529 65% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.0 11.1389221557 90% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.