The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of KNOW radio station.
"Several factors indicate that KNOW radio can no longer succeed as a rock-and-roll music station. Consider, for example, that the number of people in our listening area over fifty years of age has increased dramatically, while our total number of listeners has declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of rock- and-roll music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful. We predict that switching KNOW radio from rock-and-roll music to 24-hour news will allow the station to attract older listeners and make KNOW radio more profitable than ever."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The general manager believes that shifting from rock and roll music to 24 hour news will be a sensible option for the growth and stability of the KNOW organization. The author reaches this conclusion based on numerous assumptions that may indicate that the argument is persuasive. However, as implied, the author's recommendation is predicated on three erroneous assumptions that undermine the premises' credibility.
First and foremost, the author considers that the number of people over the age of fifty has increased dramatically in the listening coverage area of KNOW. However, this may not be the case. Perhaps the increased rate of elderly citizens isn't all that significant. It might be three or four people. Furthermore, the elderly may be so old that they lack the interest or proclivity to listen to the news on radio broadcast. If one of the above possibilities is correct, the author's claim that they should focus on 24 hour news because older people like it is invalid.
Furthermore, the author assumes that the decline in recorded music sales reflects a decline in the number of listeners. It might also be false. Perhaps as a result of current technology's growth, the majority of listeners own either smart phones or music player gadgets. As a result, they do not go to the store to purchase recorded cassettes. Furthermore, listeners' music tastes may have shifted in the last few years. However, retailers may have not changed their stock in response to demand. As a result, the listeners may refrain from going to the shops. If either of the preceding two arguments is correct, the author's premise about listeners' musical tastes does not make much sense.
Finally, the author believes that success in neighboring areas utilizing the formula of focusing on 24 hour news will be replicated in this area. However, this may not be the case. Perhaps the attitudes and tastes of people in two separate locations differ. Those in one location may choose something that is repulsive to people in another. Furthermore, the number of elderly individuals in the surrounding area may be enormous in comparison to this place. As a result, these two plausible responses to the author's erroneous assumption weaken the author's argument.
In conclusion, the author may be correct in projecting that shifting from rock and roll music to 24 hour news will boost its credibility and future prospects. However, as it is, the prediction is based on three unfounded assumptions that jeopardize its validity. If the author wants to improve the persuasiveness of his conclusion, he must thoroughly review his assumptions.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 3 2
No. of Sentences: 26 15
No. of Words: 429 350
No. of Characters: 2140 1500
No. of Different Words: 198 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.551 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.988 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.793 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 161 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 125 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 90 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 60 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 16.5 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 6.482 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.846 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.289 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.33 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.058 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 2 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 143, Rule ID: A_INFINITVE[1]
Message: Probably a wrong construction: a/the + infinitive
... option for the growth and stability of the KNOW organization. The author reaches this c...
^^^^^^^^
Line 1, column 307, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...is persuasive. However, as implied, the authors recommendation is predicated on three e...
^^^^^^^
Line 1, column 394, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[2]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'premises'' or 'premise's'?
Suggestion: premises'; premise's
...rroneous assumptions that undermine the premises credibility. First and foremost, the a...
^^^^^^^^
Line 2, column 238, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: isn't
... the increased rate of elderly citizens isnt all that significant. It might be three...
^^^^
Line 4, column 548, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[2]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...authors erroneous assumption weaken the authors argument. In conclusion, the author...
^^^^^^^
Line 4, column 566, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...assumption weaken the authors argument. In conclusion, the author may be correct...
^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, finally, first, furthermore, however, if, may, so, in conclusion, as a result
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 17.0 19.6327345309 87% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 17.0 12.9520958084 131% => OK
Conjunction : 9.0 11.1786427146 81% => OK
Relative clauses : 13.0 13.6137724551 95% => OK
Pronoun: 33.0 28.8173652695 115% => OK
Preposition: 53.0 55.5748502994 95% => OK
Nominalization: 7.0 16.3942115768 43% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2191.0 2260.96107784 97% => OK
No of words: 428.0 441.139720559 97% => OK
Chars per words: 5.1191588785 5.12650576532 100% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.548423998 4.56307096286 100% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.88367643634 2.78398813304 104% => OK
Unique words: 205.0 204.123752495 100% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.478971962617 0.468620217663 102% => OK
syllable_count: 681.3 705.55239521 97% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 8.0 4.96107784431 161% => OK
Article: 14.0 8.76447105788 160% => OK
Subordination: 8.0 2.70958083832 295% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 26.0 19.7664670659 132% => OK
Sentence length: 16.0 22.8473053892 70% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 40.4731081733 57.8364921388 70% => OK
Chars per sentence: 84.2692307692 119.503703932 71% => OK
Words per sentence: 16.4615384615 23.324526521 71% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.19230769231 5.70786347227 56% => More transition words/phrases wanted.
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 6.0 5.25449101796 114% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 11.0 8.20758483034 134% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.88822355289 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 10.0 4.67664670659 214% => Less facts, knowledge or examples wanted.
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.145914521261 0.218282227539 67% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0398000195947 0.0743258471296 54% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0563113864601 0.0701772020484 80% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0889366322985 0.128457276422 69% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0359551974449 0.0628817314937 57% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 10.9 14.3799401198 76% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 55.24 48.3550499002 114% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 9.5 12.197005988 78% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.12 12.5979740519 96% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.34 8.32208582834 100% => OK
difficult_words: 106.0 98.500998004 108% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.5 12.3882235529 69% => OK
gunning_fog: 8.4 11.1389221557 75% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.