The following appeared in a memorandum from the manager of KNOW radio station.
"Several factors indicate that KNOW radio can no longer succeed as a rock-and-roll music station. Consider, for example, that the number of people in our listening area over fifty years of age has increased dramatically, while our total number of listeners has declined. Also, music stores in our area report decreased sales of rock-and-roll music. Finally, continuous news stations in neighboring cities have been very successful. We predict that switching KNOW radio from rock-and-roll music to 24-hour news will allow the station to attract older listeners and make KNOW radio more profitable than ever."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
In the argument the manager recommends KNOW radio station to change their program to include 24-hour news in order to increase popularity. The author does this on the premise of examples presented in the argument. While the conclusion may hold water, it rests on three unwarranted assumptions which must be resolved before the company can take a decision.
Firstly, the author assumes that as the total numbers are declining, so is the popularity of the radio, all while mentioning the fact that there is an increased number of listeners who are older than 55. There could be multiple reasons why this is the case, for instance, it is possible that the number of young people in the area are decreasing by moving out for work or education. In addition, the author mentions later in the argument that switching to 24-hour news would increase the number old listeners. Here the author assumes that those people who stopped listening to the radio station are still present in the area. The author must provide evidence of the total population and the ages of the city before this decision can be taken.
Secondly, the author claims that due to reduction of sales of rock music in certain music stores, that people in the area are not interested in the genre. While this could be the case, it is also possible that the people who are buying from music stores are the only people listening to rock music. Moreover, there could be multiple reasons why there is a reduction in sales of rock music. It is possible that they are streaming the music from the internet, or the music stores do not sell the latest and trending music. Consequently, It is not possible to conclude that there is a decrease in trend of the interest in rock and roll music just by looking at the sales numbers of the rock-and-roll music store in a certain area. The author must provide additional evidence of the same in order to conclude so.
Thirdly, the author asserts that switching to news stations would be profitable by utilizing the data from other neighboring cities. Here, the author assumes that the demographics of the neighboring cities are similar to their city. It is possible that the people in other cities are more interested in news than the people in this city. Furthermore, it is possible that there are already existing news related radio stations which are providing 24-hour news and introducing the change would actually see a decline as people who listen to the other news channel show no interest in switching. This would also imply that the new radio channel would have decreased interest as the people who liked rock and roll music would also not listen. The author must provide clear evidence that the citizens are interested in news, and there is little competition from other stations for the genre. He must also provide evidence about the similarity of demographics of the two cities before concluding that KNOW radio station can switch to 24-hour news.
As it stands, the authors argument is weak and addressing the above concerns would help KNOW radio station make a better decision.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.5 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 5 2
No. of Sentences: 22 15
No. of Words: 529 350
No. of Characters: 2512 1500
No. of Different Words: 198 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.796 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.749 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.422 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 169 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 125 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 86 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 43 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 24.045 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 7.296 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.636 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.343 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.547 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.127 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 9, column 19, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...h to 24-hour news. As it stands, the authors argument is weak and addressing the abo...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
actually, also, consequently, first, firstly, furthermore, look, may, moreover, second, secondly, so, still, third, thirdly, while, for instance, in addition
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 32.0 19.6327345309 163% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 19.0 12.9520958084 147% => OK
Conjunction : 10.0 11.1786427146 89% => OK
Relative clauses : 24.0 13.6137724551 176% => OK
Pronoun: 36.0 28.8173652695 125% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 64.0 55.5748502994 115% => OK
Nominalization: 19.0 16.3942115768 116% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2568.0 2260.96107784 114% => OK
No of words: 529.0 441.139720559 120% => OK
Chars per words: 4.85444234405 5.12650576532 95% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.79583152331 4.56307096286 105% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.48346147067 2.78398813304 89% => OK
Unique words: 207.0 204.123752495 101% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.391304347826 0.468620217663 84% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 806.4 705.55239521 114% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.5 1.59920159681 94% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 10.0 4.96107784431 202% => Less pronouns wanted as sentence beginning.
Article: 10.0 8.76447105788 114% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 22.0 19.7664670659 111% => OK
Sentence length: 24.0 22.8473053892 105% => OK
Sentence length SD: 41.7345260085 57.8364921388 72% => OK
Chars per sentence: 116.727272727 119.503703932 98% => OK
Words per sentence: 24.0454545455 23.324526521 103% => OK
Discourse Markers: 7.13636363636 5.70786347227 125% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 1.0 5.25449101796 19% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 12.0 8.20758483034 146% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 3.0 6.88822355289 44% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 7.0 4.67664670659 150% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.277118095335 0.218282227539 127% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0898286461683 0.0743258471296 121% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0570121020541 0.0701772020484 81% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.161109754563 0.128457276422 125% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0184409107904 0.0628817314937 29% => Paragraphs are similar to each other. Some content may get duplicated or it is not exactly right on the topic.
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.4 14.3799401198 93% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 55.58 48.3550499002 115% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.5 12.197005988 94% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 11.15 12.5979740519 89% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.72 8.32208582834 93% => OK
difficult_words: 97.0 98.500998004 98% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 10.5 12.3882235529 85% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.6 11.1389221557 104% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 58.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.5 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.