Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Based on these developments, we predict a large increase in the demand for heating oil. Therefore, we recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
The argument states that due to the predictions of upcoming cold weather in northeastern united states and increment in oil usage at homes, it is a prudent decision to invest in Consolidated industries in near future. This argument seems convincing when given a cursory thought, but it indeed engages in several unsound reasoning and fails to present sufficient logical evidence.
First, the author claims that Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures. how do we know that during this period people have used oil for heating their homes? They may used other devices such as electrical or gas heaters at their homes. Moreover, the possibility remains that this trend of weather does not continue over the next years, weather forecasts are not always true and decisive, thus it is probable that in future the temperature rises during the winter. Any of these assumptions if true makes the author’s conclusion futile.
Second, the newly constructed homes are quite plausible to have applied other means of heating such as electricity. Because their numbers are high, if they don’t use oil as their heating fuel it is likely that the oil usage of the region won’t change. On the other hand, many of the old home’s residents may decide to change their minds about consuming oil and turn to other sources for heating. If this happens the argument’s assumptions will be regarded as false.
Third, assuming that the argument’s predictions turn true. The writer suggests investing in oil companies, but how do we know that the rise in oil usage will bring profit for the company and consequently, revenues for its investors? Maybe the number of houses in the northeastern are not high enough to affect the oil prices. Furthermore, maybe there is no oil industry around the region and deciding which one of the companies in the country supply the fuel of this place is not possible by layman. the company may require additional manufacturing units, more raw materials, additional workers etc. In the absence of detailed information on the finances involved in manufacturing the additional heating oil and the profits brought in by the sale of the heating oil, one cannot be convinced that the investments would easily be recovered and that the company will have good profits. Additionally, the possibility remains that country decides to import oil in case of a rise in oil demand, therefore precluding the fluctuations in the prices. In order for the arguer to present a grounded conjecture all these scenarios must be taken into consideration.
In summary, the argument seems to lack seriously in reasoning and persuasiveness. The author should provide sufficient data and sound evidence regarding the oil usage in the mentioned region, reliable trends in the weather over the next years and meticulous statistics about the sales and operations of the Consolidated Industries to make his predictions and advise tenable.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 19 15
No. of Words: 482 350
No. of Characters: 2426 1500
No. of Different Words: 249 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.686 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.033 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.756 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 177 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 130 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 87 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 63 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 25.368 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 16.589 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.789 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.293 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.516 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.071 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 286, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...ing when given a cursory thought, but it indeed engages in several unsound reason...
^^
Line 1, column 331, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...eed engages in several unsound reasoning and fails to present sufficient logical ...
^^
Line 2, column 109, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: How
...y days with below-average temperatures. how do we know that during this period peop...
^^^
Line 4, column 284, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...the number of houses in the northeastern are not high enough to affect the oil pr...
^^
Line 4, column 506, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: The
...f this place is not possible by layman. the company may require additional manufact...
^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, consequently, first, furthermore, if, may, moreover, regarding, second, so, therefore, third, thus, in summary, such as, on the other hand
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 13.0 19.6327345309 66% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 10.0 12.9520958084 77% => OK
Conjunction : 16.0 11.1786427146 143% => OK
Relative clauses : 14.0 13.6137724551 103% => OK
Pronoun: 34.0 28.8173652695 118% => OK
Preposition: 63.0 55.5748502994 113% => OK
Nominalization: 11.0 16.3942115768 67% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2505.0 2260.96107784 111% => OK
No of words: 480.0 441.139720559 109% => OK
Chars per words: 5.21875 5.12650576532 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.68069463864 4.56307096286 103% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.92980300698 2.78398813304 105% => OK
Unique words: 255.0 204.123752495 125% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.53125 0.468620217663 113% => OK
syllable_count: 783.9 705.55239521 111% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 4.0 4.22255489022 95% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 21.0 19.7664670659 106% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 65.9751894547 57.8364921388 114% => OK
Chars per sentence: 119.285714286 119.503703932 100% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.8571428571 23.324526521 98% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.80952380952 5.70786347227 119% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 5.0 5.25449101796 95% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 6.0 8.20758483034 73% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 7.0 6.88822355289 102% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 8.0 4.67664670659 171% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.259390164022 0.218282227539 119% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0698904703952 0.0743258471296 94% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.078351817945 0.0701772020484 112% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.134765137043 0.128457276422 105% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.079840105263 0.0628817314937 127% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 14.6 14.3799401198 102% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 49.15 48.3550499002 102% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.9 12.197005988 98% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.29 12.5979740519 105% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 9.14 8.32208582834 110% => OK
difficult_words: 134.0 98.500998004 136% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 83.33 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 5.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.