Homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last year that region experienced twenty days with below-average temperatures, and local weather forecasters throughout the region predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes have been built in this region during the past year. Because of these developments, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil.
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation
In the argument stated above the author clearly states that we should invest in Consolidated Industries as it is flourish economically in near future. Home Heating Oil is one the main businesses of Consolidated Industries, the author has concluded that it will become a popular business based on the following evidences; He states that traditionally people of North-American regions have used oil lamps in winter and they will continue to use it even in the future; Moreover, he also assumes that new homes which are built in that area will also continue to use oil lamps. However, before forming any conclusions there are certain points that needs to be addressed that makes this argument weak; these points are elaborated in the following paragraphs.
How many Homes in North Eastern United States still using traditional oil lamps?. It might be possible that a few or handful of homes are still using those traditional oil lamps and many homes have switched to new modern heating techniques which require electricity. If such is the case then oil consumption might not increase, which will weaken the argument stated by the author.
Moving ahead, the author also states that the average winter will increase in coming years and people would prefer oil lamps to keep their houses warm. Even if we assume that people will use those oil lamps, the point here is how many days the lamp would be required to warm the house; because in summer or when the temperature is average ; people wouldn’t prefer oil lamps; for example if winter lasts for 4 months in North Eastern United States then what about the remaining 6 months. Will the profit obtained be enough to sustain those 6 months. Hence the statement concluded by the author that we should invest in XYZ company is weakened.
The Third point that makes this argument weak is, according to the fact stated by author more homes are being built in the North Eastern US . Here the author directly assumes that the new homes would also use traditional oil lamps for keeping their house warm. It might be possible that these homes would use modern eco-friendly insulating techniques which would require electricity rather than oil.
After taking into consideration the above mentioned points the argument is weakened severely. The author should provide more evidence ; how many houses still use oil-lamps, or are the new homes which are to be built would use oil-lamps; which might strengthen the argument.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 9 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 4 2
No. of Sentences: 15 15
No. of Words: 411 350
No. of Characters: 2005 1500
No. of Different Words: 185 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.503 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.878 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.449 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 139 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 83 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 59 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 36 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 27.4 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 16.732 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.733 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.396 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.396 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.163 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 1 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 549, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Hence,
...ed be enough to sustain those 6 months. Hence the statement concluded by the author t...
^^^^^
Line 4, column 140, Rule ID: COMMA_PARENTHESIS_WHITESPACE
Message: Don't put a space before the full stop
Suggestion: .
... are being built in the North Eastern US . Here the author directly assumes that t...
^^
Line 4, column 400, Rule ID: SENTENCE_FRAGMENT[1]
Message: “After” at the beginning of a sentence requires a 2nd clause. Maybe a comma, question or exclamation mark is missing, or the sentence is incomplete and should be joined with the following sentence.
...ld require electricity rather than oil. After taking into consideration the above men...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 275, Rule ID: WHITESPACE_RULE
Message: Possible typo: you repeated a whitespace
Suggestion:
...s; which might strengthen the argument.
^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, hence, however, if, moreover, so, still, then, third, for example
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 22.0 19.6327345309 112% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 20.0 12.9520958084 154% => OK
Conjunction : 6.0 11.1786427146 54% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 21.0 13.6137724551 154% => OK
Pronoun: 35.0 28.8173652695 121% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 36.0 55.5748502994 65% => OK
Nominalization: 10.0 16.3942115768 61% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2054.0 2260.96107784 91% => OK
No of words: 410.0 441.139720559 93% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.00975609756 5.12650576532 98% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.49982852243 4.56307096286 99% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.52900208229 2.78398813304 91% => OK
Unique words: 191.0 204.123752495 94% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.465853658537 0.468620217663 99% => OK
syllable_count: 636.3 705.55239521 90% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 5.0 8.76447105788 57% => OK
Subordination: 5.0 2.70958083832 185% => OK
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 4.0 4.22255489022 95% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 15.0 19.7664670659 76% => Need more sentences. Double check the format of sentences, make sure there is a space between two sentences, or have enough periods. And also check the lengths of sentences, maybe they are too long.
Sentence length: 27.0 22.8473053892 118% => OK
Sentence length SD: 93.2086309785 57.8364921388 161% => OK
Chars per sentence: 136.933333333 119.503703932 115% => OK
Words per sentence: 27.3333333333 23.324526521 117% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.73333333333 5.70786347227 83% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 4.0 5.25449101796 76% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 7.0 8.20758483034 85% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 6.0 6.88822355289 87% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 2.0 4.67664670659 43% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.22285342744 0.218282227539 102% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0850175757897 0.0743258471296 114% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0693302122826 0.0701772020484 99% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.142907482421 0.128457276422 111% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0397606522218 0.0628817314937 63% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 15.8 14.3799401198 110% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 44.07 48.3550499002 91% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 13.8 12.197005988 113% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.07 12.5979740519 96% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.02 8.32208582834 96% => OK
difficult_words: 79.0 98.500998004 80% => More difficult words wanted.
linsear_write_formula: 19.0 12.3882235529 153% => OK
gunning_fog: 12.8 11.1389221557 115% => OK
text_standard: 13.0 11.9071856287 109% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.