The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The editor of Balmer Island Gazette argues that limiting the number of rentals on mopeds will reduce the number of accidents between mopeds and pedestrians in Balmer Island. While the prediction may have some merit, three questions must be answered in order to determine the validity of the argument. If the author fails to address the questions, then the entire argument is unsubstantiated and falls apart.
Firstly, how does the increase in population during the summer contribute to moped and pedestrian accidents. The author assumes that many accidents happen in Balmer Island during the summers because of an increase in population. However, the author does not describe whether the population increase is primarily pedestrians or people who excessively use mopeds. Perhaps, the population increase is newborns who are not capable of using mopeds on the island. What the author must do in order to reduce ambiguity is to provide a consensus as to whether the population increase are people who frequently use mopeds and are involved in pedestrian accidents. If the author does not provide relevant evidence, then the prediction is faulty.
Secondly, will limiting the number of mopeds per day reduce pedestrian accidents? The author assumes that because people mainly use mopeds as a mode of transportation, reducing moped use will reduce pedestrian accidents. However, it is likely that pedestrian accidents can occur even with the reduction of mopeds. Perhaps, accidents happen because there aren’t any stop signs or signals that warn moped drivers to slow down due to pedestrians in the area. Likewise, accidents may happen because moped drives do not practice safety regulations. Therefore, the author must ensure that other factors are considered to maintain the safety of a pedestrian. While limiting transportation may help, it does not necessarily stop accidents. Hence, the prediction fails if other confounds aren’t considered to reduce pedestrian accidents.
Lastly, what limits did Seaville's town council enforce to reduce moped and pedestrian accidents. The author assumes that following similar restrictions as Seaville will reduce the number of accidents in Balmer Island. However, it is likely that the circumstances in Seaville are different compared to Balmer Island. The author states that Seaville's has a “50 percent annual reduction” in moped accidents. This indicates that moped accidents reduced over the year, not over the summer. Perhaps, Seaville's did not reduce moped driving, but placed more safety restrictions. It is likely that Seaville's fifty percent reduction is from a population of 1,000 people, compared to the 100,000 thousand in Balmer Island. Therefore, moped accidents in Seaville throughout the year may not be as high as Balmer Island throughout the summer. Furthermore, the author must determine what limits that Seaville enforced, which may have been law enforcement. If law enforcement were the case, then it would go against the author’s prediction that reduction of mopeds were effective in Seaville and will be effective in Balmer Island.
In conclusion, the author must address the aforementioned questions in order to validate the prediction. The author must do the following: provide statistical data that population increase is the reason for moped and pedestrian accidents, consider the confounds of reducing pedestrian accidents, and identify the measures taken by Seaville that successfully reduced their accidents. If the author does not provide substantiating evidence, then the prediction is fallacious.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 30 15
No. of Words: 549 350
No. of Characters: 2957 1500
No. of Different Words: 201 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.841 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.386 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.825 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 258 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 175 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 135 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 95 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 18.3 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 6.584 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.667 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.339 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.339 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.113 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 1 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 2, column 538, Rule ID: WHETHER[6]
Message: Can you shorten this phrase to just 'whether', or rephrase the sentence to avoid "as to"?
Suggestion: whether
...uce ambiguity is to provide a consensus as to whether the population increase are people who ...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 16, Rule ID: DID_BASEFORM[1]
Message: The verb 'will' requires the base form of the verb: 'limit'
Suggestion: limit
... prediction is faulty. Secondly, will limiting the number of mopeds per day reduce ped...
^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 787, Rule ID: ADMIT_ENJOY_VB[3]
Message: This verb is used with the gerund form: 'considered reducing'.
Suggestion: considered reducing
...diction fails if other confounds aren’t considered to reduce pedestrian accidents. Lastly, what lim...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
but, first, firstly, furthermore, hence, however, if, lastly, likewise, may, second, secondly, so, then, therefore, while, as to, in conclusion
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 22.0 19.6327345309 112% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 18.0 12.9520958084 139% => OK
Conjunction : 11.0 11.1786427146 98% => OK
Relative clauses : 19.0 13.6137724551 140% => OK
Pronoun: 22.0 28.8173652695 76% => OK
Preposition: 59.0 55.5748502994 106% => OK
Nominalization: 24.0 16.3942115768 146% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 3036.0 2260.96107784 134% => OK
No of words: 547.0 441.139720559 124% => OK
Chars per words: 5.55027422303 5.12650576532 108% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.83611736076 4.56307096286 106% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.92445720771 2.78398813304 105% => OK
Unique words: 212.0 204.123752495 104% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.387568555759 0.468620217663 83% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 951.3 705.55239521 135% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 12.0 8.76447105788 137% => OK
Subordination: 6.0 2.70958083832 221% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 30.0 19.7664670659 152% => OK
Sentence length: 18.0 22.8473053892 79% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 41.5847327754 57.8364921388 72% => OK
Chars per sentence: 101.2 119.503703932 85% => OK
Words per sentence: 18.2333333333 23.324526521 78% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.76666666667 5.70786347227 84% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 3.0 5.25449101796 57% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 8.0 8.20758483034 97% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 15.0 6.88822355289 218% => Less negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 7.0 4.67664670659 150% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.305602963763 0.218282227539 140% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0979877199676 0.0743258471296 132% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.100071107032 0.0701772020484 143% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.186491577937 0.128457276422 145% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.084205409216 0.0628817314937 134% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.8 14.3799401198 96% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 44.75 48.3550499002 93% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.5 12.197005988 94% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 14.91 12.5979740519 118% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.96 8.32208582834 96% => OK
difficult_words: 119.0 98.500998004 121% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 11.0 12.3882235529 89% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.2 11.1389221557 83% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.