The following appeared in a memorandum from the planning department of an electric power company.
"Several recent surveys indicate that home owners are increasingly eager to conserve energy. At the same time, manufacturers are now marketing many home appliances, such as refrigerators and air conditioners, that are almost twice as energy efficient as those sold a decade ago. Also, new technologies for better home insulation and passive solar heating are readily available to reduce the energy needed for home heating. Therefore, the total demand for electricity in our area will not increase — and may decline slightly. Since our three electric generating plants in operation for the past twenty years have always met our needs, construction of new generating plants will not be necessary."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions prove unwarranted.
The writer argues that construction of new electricity plants would not be necessary since energy demand is going to decrease. It is based on the premises that consumers are now more energy conscious, manufacturers are marketing those products that are energy efficient and solar technologies are available for home heating. The argument seems true at first sight, but on deeper analysis it becomes clear that certain relevant aspects have not been taken into account, leading to a number of unstated assumptions and logical flaws.
First such assumption is related to the sampling error which states that writer has assumed the efficacy of surveys for the areas covered by his company. However, there may be the case that those surveys covered only few areas which are not being served by his company at present and moreover, it is likely that survey showed the results for another country. For example, the study conducted by World Bank in 2018 on “Ease of Doing Business” showed that India has improved its ranking by 50 points in the period from 2014 to 2018. But the application of these rankings did not match with the reality since study of World Bank covered only two cities where business proportion is insignificant to the business proportion in other parts of India. Thus, study was not useful for the investors to judge the business friendly environment of India. Therefore, in order to overcome this flaw, the writer should check the areas covered in the survey.
Second assumption is related to the analogy which states that the writer has assumed that new technology, such as solar heating is available, would reduce the demand for electricity. However, there may be the case that though the technology is available but consumers are not willing to use it because of lack of reviews and it may also likely that since this is new technology, it is not accessible by large number of consumers in the next 2 or 3 years. For example, the study conducted by Solar Manufacturing Plan Association of India in 2014 concluded that though India has generated sufficient capacity to serve solar power needs of consumer, but due to initial higher costs involved in installing the solar panels, consumers are not willing to use it unless supported by Government through subsidies. Thus, in order to strengthen the argument, the writer should confirm the willingness of consumers for accepting this new technology.
Finally, the assumption is related to cause and effect which states that the writer has assumed arbitrarily that energy is required for only home appliances and home heating, which would reduce the demand for electricity as manufacturers are marketing energy efficient products. However, there may be the case that though the consumers may be willing to buy these energy efficient appliances, but their demand for electricity may remain same or may increase since they are moving towards electric vehicle. For example, the study conducted by Green Climate Fund in 2016 argued that though different Governments all around the world are all working towards electric vehicle in order to address the problem of pollution, but it would lead to sudden and unpredictable increase in demand for energy. Therefore, the writer of the argument should demonstrate that energy demand in specific area is due to home appliances only.
While concluding, after close examination of the argument presented, it is apparent that the argument as it stands now is considerably flawed due to its reliance on certain unwarranted assumptions. The recommendations in the above paragraphs show how the argument may be strengthened and made more logically sound in order to evaluate the viability of the proposed recommendation.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 2.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 19 15
No. of Words: 605 350
No. of Characters: 3062 1500
No. of Different Words: 260 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.96 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.061 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.693 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 229 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 168 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 114 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 77 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 31.842 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 10.869 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.895 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.329 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.558 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.093 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 13, column 359, Rule ID: THIS_NNS[2]
Message: Did you mean 'this energy' or 'these energies'?
Suggestion: this energy; these energies
...ugh the consumers may be willing to buy these energy efficient appliances, but their demand ...
^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, finally, first, however, if, may, moreover, second, so, then, therefore, thus, while, for example, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 34.0 19.6327345309 173% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 15.0 12.9520958084 116% => OK
Conjunction : 16.0 11.1786427146 143% => OK
Relative clauses : 25.0 13.6137724551 184% => OK
Pronoun: 42.0 28.8173652695 146% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 78.0 55.5748502994 140% => OK
Nominalization: 20.0 16.3942115768 122% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 3147.0 2260.96107784 139% => OK
No of words: 605.0 441.139720559 137% => Less content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.20165289256 5.12650576532 101% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.95951083803 4.56307096286 109% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.80026050873 2.78398813304 101% => OK
Unique words: 270.0 204.123752495 132% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.446280991736 0.468620217663 95% => OK
syllable_count: 991.8 705.55239521 141% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 4.0 4.96107784431 81% => OK
Article: 10.0 8.76447105788 114% => OK
Subordination: 2.0 2.70958083832 74% => OK
Conjunction: 5.0 1.67365269461 299% => Less conjunction wanted as sentence beginning.
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 19.0 19.7664670659 96% => OK
Sentence length: 31.0 22.8473053892 136% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively long.
Sentence length SD: 65.5835936514 57.8364921388 113% => OK
Chars per sentence: 165.631578947 119.503703932 139% => OK
Words per sentence: 31.8421052632 23.324526521 137% => OK
Discourse Markers: 6.15789473684 5.70786347227 108% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 1.0 5.25449101796 19% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 8.20758483034 122% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 7.0 6.88822355289 102% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 2.0 4.67664670659 43% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.104480555241 0.218282227539 48% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0335742530069 0.0743258471296 45% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0341241156132 0.0701772020484 49% => Sentences are similar to each other.
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0582275275244 0.128457276422 45% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0395714965784 0.0628817314937 63% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 19.0 14.3799401198 132% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 40.01 48.3550499002 83% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 15.4 12.197005988 126% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.47 12.5979740519 107% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.85 8.32208582834 106% => OK
difficult_words: 141.0 98.500998004 143% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 14.5 12.3882235529 117% => OK
gunning_fog: 14.4 11.1389221557 129% => OK
text_standard: 15.0 11.9071856287 126% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Write the essay in 30 minutes.
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.