"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you examine the stated and/or unstated assumptions of the argument. Be sure to explain how the argument depends on these assumptions and what the implications are for the argument if the assumptions
The investment advisor recommends investment in consolidated industries whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil because the use of heating oil will increase due to newly built houses and prediction of weather forecasters that long term below-normal temperatures will sustain for several years. However, there are several weak assumptions that the advisor make to confirm one’s conclusion.
First, the advisor should provide the data of previous years that shows the number of days which temperature was below normal. The advisor contends that the northeastern us region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures. although 90 days is quite a long term, there is no information whether the term is longer than the previous years. For example, if the days with below-normal temperature was 120 days at the second last heating season, it has actually decreased. if those pattern continues as the climate forecasters said, it would be worse. Without the information of previous data, the advisor could not assure the increased demand for heating oil.
Second, the advisor should provide the validity of climate forecasters who predict the weather pattern will continue for several years. There is no information about the climate forecasters, whether they are eminent or outnumbered the forecasters who predicted the opposite way. It could only 2 out of 100 who predicted the weather will successive or it was the forecasters who gets funding from the heating oil industries. If the forecasters that the advisor used as the reference was invalid, the statement that the heating oil use will increase won’t be seem true.
Also, the advisor should give the information of newly built houses. The reader does not know whether the newly built houses’ heating system is also run by oil. Thinking about the concern of global warming, the newly built houses may not use fossil fuels, instead they may use reusable energy such as solar energy. If the oil is not used by newly built houses, the use of heating oil will hardly increase, nullifying the advisor’s content.
Finally, the advisor should assure the relation between the consolidated industries and the northeastern us region. Although it would be true that its major business operations is at home heating oil, their major provision area could be not northeastern us, it could be some where else such as northwestern us where the weather is becoming warmer every year. If the consolidated industries does not supply their products to the northeastern us, investing to the company won’t be a good idea.
In conclusion, the advisor should give more details about cold days of the previous years, validity of climate forecasters, newly built houses’ heating systems and the region that the company supply, or the statement will be un warranted.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 18 15
No. of Words: 457 350
No. of Characters: 2328 1500
No. of Different Words: 189 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.624 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.094 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.718 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 170 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 136 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 78 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 56 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 25.389 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 9.9 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.722 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.375 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.64 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.171 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 6 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 233, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: Although
...90 days with below-normal temperatures. although 90 days is quite a long term, there is ...
^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 478, Rule ID: UPPERCASE_SENTENCE_START
Message: This sentence does not start with an uppercase letter
Suggestion: If
...ting season, it has actually decreased. if those pattern continues as the climate ...
^^
Line 9, column 271, Rule ID: SOME_WHERE[1]
Message: Did you mean 'somewhere'?
Suggestion: somewhere
...uld be not northeastern us, it could be some where else such as northwestern us where the ...
^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
actually, also, finally, first, however, if, may, second, so, for example, in conclusion, such as
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 22.0 19.6327345309 112% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 20.0 12.9520958084 154% => OK
Conjunction : 6.0 11.1786427146 54% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 16.0 13.6137724551 118% => OK
Pronoun: 25.0 28.8173652695 87% => OK
Preposition: 36.0 55.5748502994 65% => OK
Nominalization: 11.0 16.3942115768 67% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2401.0 2260.96107784 106% => OK
No of words: 455.0 441.139720559 103% => OK
Chars per words: 5.27692307692 5.12650576532 103% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.61852021839 4.56307096286 101% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.78903090598 2.78398813304 100% => OK
Unique words: 202.0 204.123752495 99% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.443956043956 0.468620217663 95% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 723.6 705.55239521 103% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 12.0 8.76447105788 137% => OK
Subordination: 7.0 2.70958083832 258% => Less adverbial clause wanted.
Conjunction: 1.0 1.67365269461 60% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 20.0 19.7664670659 101% => OK
Sentence length: 22.0 22.8473053892 96% => OK
Sentence length SD: 59.9287910774 57.8364921388 104% => OK
Chars per sentence: 120.05 119.503703932 100% => OK
Words per sentence: 22.75 23.324526521 98% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.85 5.70786347227 85% => OK
Paragraphs: 6.0 5.15768463074 116% => OK
Language errors: 3.0 5.25449101796 57% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 9.0 8.20758483034 110% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 5.0 6.88822355289 73% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.328129842777 0.218282227539 150% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.106192844725 0.0743258471296 143% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.076276341127 0.0701772020484 109% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.170723284635 0.128457276422 133% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0677580910374 0.0628817314937 108% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 14.8 14.3799401198 103% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 49.15 48.3550499002 102% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.9 12.197005988 98% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.64 12.5979740519 108% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.09 8.32208582834 97% => OK
difficult_words: 97.0 98.500998004 98% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 12.0 12.3882235529 97% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.8 11.1389221557 97% => OK
text_standard: 12.0 11.9071856287 101% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.