"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The author suggests the used amount of heating oil will increase in the next few years. Thus, the author recommend investment in Consolidated Industries. However, several questions need answering to evaluate the claim.
The author claims that climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. However, what is the accuracy of climate forecasters? Sometimes, they will make some wrong projections about the weather. For example, Many typhoons occur in August or September in Taiwan, and a good deal of meteorologists will predict the paths of these typhoons in these days. Unfortunately, most of them can’t not be able to forecast correct answers because there are lots of unpredictable factors included, such as the rise and fall of the air pressure. Furthermore, these forecasters may be just an university students doing an intern in a company, and they may not have enough practical experiences for predicting the weather. Therefore, these forecasts for the next few years will not be reliable data. Also, the author didn’t indicate the extent of decreasing of the temperature, and the temperature may be just two degrees below the normal temperature.
The author points out that many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Yet, is it possible that the population will decrease in the future? For example, many countries have the problem of low birth rate, such as Japan or Taiwan, as a result, the population of this region will also be possible being affected by the problem of low birth rate. Moreover, people will also be probable to emigrate to other areas because of the low economic growth of this region. Moreover, the number of new homes also need to be regarded. Because these new homes may not be enough to accommodate all the people in this region if this area has a positive population growth.
The author states that people can invest in Consolidated Industries because of an increased demand for heating oil. However, does this enterprise monopoly this industry? Maybe this is a highly competitive industry, and Consolidated Industries isn’t a greatly profitable company. Even if this business can earn some profits now, it can’t be ensured that Consolidated Industries will develop into a highly profitable company in the future. Also, it is possible that the demand for heating oil will decline in the next couples of years because people can utilize other alternative energy, such as natural gas or electric.
To sum up, even if investing in Consolidated Industries seems to be a feasible choice. However, lots of imperative factor still need to be considered carefully. Therefore, the author must answer the questions mentioned above thoroughly.
Comments
Essay evaluations by e-grader
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 423, Rule ID: CONTRACTED_FORM_NOT[1]
Message: You used a negation after a negated contracted verb. Did you mean simply 'can’t'?
Suggestion: can’t
...these days. Unfortunately, most of them can’t not be able to forecast correct answers bec...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 617, Rule ID: EN_A_VS_AN
Message: Use 'a' instead of 'an' if the following word doesn't start with a vowel sound, e.g. 'a sentence', 'a university'
Suggestion: a
...thermore, these forecasters may be just an university students doing an intern in ...
^^
Line 5, column 503, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Two successive sentences begin with the same adverb. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
...the low economic growth of this region. Moreover, the number of new homes also need to b...
^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, furthermore, however, if, may, moreover, so, still, therefore, thus, for example, such as, as a result, to sum up
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 19.0 19.6327345309 97% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 23.0 12.9520958084 178% => OK
Conjunction : 8.0 11.1786427146 72% => OK
Relative clauses : 7.0 13.6137724551 51% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 27.0 28.8173652695 94% => OK
Preposition: 49.0 55.5748502994 88% => OK
Nominalization: 5.0 16.3942115768 30% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2330.0 2260.96107784 103% => OK
No of words: 446.0 441.139720559 101% => OK
Chars per words: 5.22421524664 5.12650576532 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.5955099915 4.56307096286 101% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.81875931753 2.78398813304 101% => OK
Unique words: 217.0 204.123752495 106% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.486547085202 0.468620217663 104% => OK
syllable_count: 738.0 705.55239521 105% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 4.0 2.70958083832 148% => OK
Conjunction: 4.0 1.67365269461 239% => Less conjunction wanted as sentence beginning.
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 25.0 19.7664670659 126% => OK
Sentence length: 17.0 22.8473053892 74% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 45.2232506572 57.8364921388 78% => OK
Chars per sentence: 93.2 119.503703932 78% => OK
Words per sentence: 17.84 23.324526521 76% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.76 5.70786347227 83% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 3.0 5.25449101796 57% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 12.0 8.20758483034 146% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 3.0 6.88822355289 44% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 10.0 4.67664670659 214% => Less facts, knowledge or examples wanted.
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.127125973424 0.218282227539 58% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0389197258861 0.0743258471296 52% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0398361249014 0.0701772020484 57% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0656432201053 0.128457276422 51% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0408268411104 0.0628817314937 65% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.1 14.3799401198 84% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 45.76 48.3550499002 95% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.7 12.5979740519 101% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.44 8.32208582834 101% => OK
difficult_words: 112.0 98.500998004 114% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 6.0 12.3882235529 48% => Linsear_write_formula is low.
gunning_fog: 8.8 11.1389221557 79% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 423, Rule ID: CONTRACTED_FORM_NOT[1]
Message: You used a negation after a negated contracted verb. Did you mean simply 'can’t'?
Suggestion: can’t
...these days. Unfortunately, most of them can’t not be able to forecast correct answers bec...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 617, Rule ID: EN_A_VS_AN
Message: Use 'a' instead of 'an' if the following word doesn't start with a vowel sound, e.g. 'a sentence', 'a university'
Suggestion: a
...thermore, these forecasters may be just an university students doing an intern in ...
^^
Line 5, column 503, Rule ID: ENGLISH_WORD_REPEAT_BEGINNING_RULE
Message: Two successive sentences begin with the same adverb. Reword the sentence or use a thesaurus to find a synonym.
...the low economic growth of this region. Moreover, the number of new homes also need to b...
^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, furthermore, however, if, may, moreover, so, still, therefore, thus, for example, such as, as a result, to sum up
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 19.0 19.6327345309 97% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 23.0 12.9520958084 178% => OK
Conjunction : 8.0 11.1786427146 72% => OK
Relative clauses : 7.0 13.6137724551 51% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 27.0 28.8173652695 94% => OK
Preposition: 49.0 55.5748502994 88% => OK
Nominalization: 5.0 16.3942115768 30% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2330.0 2260.96107784 103% => OK
No of words: 446.0 441.139720559 101% => OK
Chars per words: 5.22421524664 5.12650576532 102% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.5955099915 4.56307096286 101% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.81875931753 2.78398813304 101% => OK
Unique words: 217.0 204.123752495 106% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.486547085202 0.468620217663 104% => OK
syllable_count: 738.0 705.55239521 105% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 4.0 2.70958083832 148% => OK
Conjunction: 4.0 1.67365269461 239% => Less conjunction wanted as sentence beginning.
Preposition: 1.0 4.22255489022 24% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 25.0 19.7664670659 126% => OK
Sentence length: 17.0 22.8473053892 74% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 45.2232506572 57.8364921388 78% => OK
Chars per sentence: 93.2 119.503703932 78% => OK
Words per sentence: 17.84 23.324526521 76% => OK
Discourse Markers: 4.76 5.70786347227 83% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 3.0 5.25449101796 57% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 12.0 8.20758483034 146% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 3.0 6.88822355289 44% => More negative sentences wanted.
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 10.0 4.67664670659 214% => Less facts, knowledge or examples wanted.
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.127125973424 0.218282227539 58% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0389197258861 0.0743258471296 52% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0398361249014 0.0701772020484 57% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.0656432201053 0.128457276422 51% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0408268411104 0.0628817314937 65% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.1 14.3799401198 84% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 45.76 48.3550499002 95% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.7 12.5979740519 101% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.44 8.32208582834 101% => OK
difficult_words: 112.0 98.500998004 114% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 6.0 12.3882235529 48% => Linsear_write_formula is low.
gunning_fog: 8.8 11.1389221557 79% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.