The following appeared in a memo to the board of directors of a company that specializes in the delivery of heating oil. "Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
The note presented to the top management of the company specializing in transport of heating oil contained few factors which might be favourable to the company. According to the claim, as winters in northeastern part of the United States are cold, there will be an increase in demand of heating oil in next half decade. Additionally, the claim is supported by the fact that increase in number of residents in the area will also a play a part in increase of demand for heating oil. But, on scrutiny, it may be possible that the forecasted demand might not be dependant on statements provided in the argument. Thus, some of the flaws associated with the presented argument will be described further.
Firstly, climate change across the world has led to increment in average temperatures. Consequently, it might not be a good idea to only look at the data of past heating season. Taking into account the average temperature of the past decade, it might result in different theory related to aberrant last heating season. So, it would be apt to study and research the weather patterns and other geological events of the area before predicting that the upcoming winters will be harsher than previous ones. Furthermore, the author has not mentioned the credibility of the survey stating that most homes use heating oil. The survey might not be a perfect representative of the northeastern region of United States or it may be the case that the survey was conducted many years ago.
Secondly, it is mentioned that settlement of the people in the northeastern region of the United States increases. If the weather conditions in the winter season have below-normal temperatures, then, new residents would be more inclined towards finding houses with built-in heating system. Due to the advent of technology, the heating system suited towards mainting warm temperatures across the home has become cost-effective, automatic and is comparatively more hassle-free than exploiting the heating oil. As the lives of people become more hectic, working professionals and students would prefer homes with heating system.
The memo contains assumptions which are based on weak pillars. The arguments presented in the memo would have been convincing if the author had provided more statistics and figures on past trend of below-normal temperature, population of the regions taken in consideration and amenties provided by the upcoming new homes in the area. Thus, as mentioned earlier a closer look on different factors may lead to better predictions concerning the pattern of heating oil's demand.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.0 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 2 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 9 2
No. of Sentences: 18 15
No. of Words: 418 350
No. of Characters: 2120 1500
No. of Different Words: 202 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.522 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.072 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.87 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 166 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 120 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 82 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 59 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 23.222 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 7.878 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.667 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.324 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.511 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.094 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 4 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 1, column 559, Rule ID: DEPENDENT[1]
Message: Did you mean 'dependent' on?
Suggestion: dependent
...that the forecasted demand might not be dependant on statements provided in the argument....
^^^^^^^^^
Line 1, column 615, Rule ID: SOME_OF_THE[1]
Message: Simply use 'some'.
Suggestion: some
...tements provided in the argument. Thus, some of the flaws associated with the presented arg...
^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 145, Rule ID: THE_FALL_SEASON[1]
Message: Use simply 'winter'.
Suggestion: winter
...increases. If the weather conditions in the winter season have below-normal temperatures, then, n...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, but, consequently, first, firstly, furthermore, if, look, may, second, secondly, so, then, thus
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 18.0 19.6327345309 92% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 16.0 12.9520958084 124% => OK
Conjunction : 7.0 11.1786427146 63% => OK
Relative clauses : 8.0 13.6137724551 59% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 12.0 28.8173652695 42% => OK
Preposition: 66.0 55.5748502994 119% => OK
Nominalization: 7.0 16.3942115768 43% => More nominalizations (nouns with a suffix like: tion ment ence ance) wanted.
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2168.0 2260.96107784 96% => OK
No of words: 418.0 441.139720559 95% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.18660287081 5.12650576532 101% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.52162009685 4.56307096286 99% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.9345243036 2.78398813304 105% => OK
Unique words: 211.0 204.123752495 103% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.504784688995 0.468620217663 108% => OK
syllable_count: 673.2 705.55239521 95% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 7.0 8.76447105788 80% => OK
Subordination: 4.0 2.70958083832 148% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 18.0 19.7664670659 91% => OK
Sentence length: 23.0 22.8473053892 101% => OK
Sentence length SD: 49.1528229098 57.8364921388 85% => OK
Chars per sentence: 120.444444444 119.503703932 101% => OK
Words per sentence: 23.2222222222 23.324526521 100% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.61111111111 5.70786347227 98% => OK
Paragraphs: 4.0 5.15768463074 78% => More paragraphs wanted.
Language errors: 3.0 5.25449101796 57% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 5.0 8.20758483034 61% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 7.0 6.88822355289 102% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 6.0 4.67664670659 128% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.213714770286 0.218282227539 98% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0720472636168 0.0743258471296 97% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0668751224885 0.0701772020484 95% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.128890862016 0.128457276422 100% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0229974809546 0.0628817314937 37% => Paragraphs are similar to each other. Some content may get duplicated or it is not exactly right on the topic.
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 14.6 14.3799401198 102% => OK
flesch_reading_ease: 48.13 48.3550499002 100% => OK
smog_index: 8.8 7.1628742515 123% => OK
flesch_kincaid_grade: 12.3 12.197005988 101% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.12 12.5979740519 104% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.97 8.32208582834 108% => OK
difficult_words: 111.0 98.500998004 113% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 14.0 12.3882235529 113% => OK
gunning_fog: 11.2 11.1389221557 101% => OK
text_standard: 9.0 11.9071856287 76% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.