"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season, that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we can safely predict that this region will experience an increased demand for heating oil during the next five years."
The author claims that there will be increase in demand for heating oil during the next five years in the region. He or she offers an interesting argument, but it suffers from some logical flaws and gaps in evidence. While the connections suggested are reasonable, there are many other possible scenarios that should discourage the author from being sure.
To begin with the author believes that the homes will use oil as their major fuel for heating merely because they had traditionally used it. Yet there is no reason to believe that the tradition will continue for the next five years. As we all know, there are no traditions that last forever. In past, for example, people used carriage, horse, etc when they moved and sent letter when they need communication with others located far away. However recently people rely on cars, airplanes, train, etc when moving to other city or country and send e-mail or use cell-phone to contact with others. Likewise, we cannot be sure that people in northeastern United States will use heating oil during next five years just because heating oil is traditional way to heat their house during winter.
Secondly, the author's claims depends on the assumption that the winter will be cold during the next five years. He or she cites that the region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures and this pattern will continue. However the author offers no detailed information any further: How much was it below from normal temperature? The region's heating season might be just little colder than normal: too little for denizens to recognize and use oil for heating. The author should provide how much was northeastern colder than normal to strengthen his/her claim. What is more, we cannot assure whether the climate forecaster's prediction is true or not. Even though the technique to predict climate developed a lot, accurate climate prediction is still challenging. There are too many factors that can affect the climate but not detected easily. Also there are many un-known factors that can cause huge change in climate. The climate forecasters might miss some of these factors and the heating season in the northeastern may be not actually cold enough to induce citizens to heat their home.
Finally the author presents the trend that many new homes are being built in response to recent population growth as his/her evidence. However the fact that there are many new homes does not always entail more citizens. The population of northeastern might not increase correspondingly to recent population growth for several reasons. The area may lack educational institute so that make parents hesitate to locate or it may have dirty environment or air pollution in the area may be too harsh to live. Therefore without more plausible reason to claim that citizens in northeastern will increase, it is not logical to determine that heating oil will be popular during the next five years.
To sum up, the author's assumption is logically flawed by above mentioned reasons. The author should closely examine all other factors and conditions before claiming. More detailed data and information are needed to make us assure that the region will experience an increased demand for heating oil in future.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.5 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 8 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 6 2
No. of Sentences: 27 15
No. of Words: 536 350
No. of Characters: 2659 1500
No. of Different Words: 256 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.812 4.7
Average Word Length: 4.961 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.516 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 199 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 130 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 82 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 51 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 19.852 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 5.98 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.667 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.277 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.461 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.136 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 293, Rule ID: IN_PAST[1]
Message: Did you mean: 'In the past'?
Suggestion: In the past
...re are no traditions that last forever. In past, for example, people used carriage, hor...
^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 439, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: However,
...unication with others located far away. However recently people rely on cars, airplanes...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 228, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: However,
...ratures and this pattern will continue. However the author offers no detailed informati...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 850, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Also,
...ct the climate but not detected easily. Also there are many un-known factors that ca...
^^^^
Line 7, column 1, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Finally,
... induce citizens to heat their home. Finally the author presents the trend that many...
^^^^^^^
Line 7, column 136, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: However,
... population growth as his/her evidence. However the fact that there are many new homes ...
^^^^^^^
Line 7, column 504, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Therefore,
...n in the area may be too harsh to live. Therefore without more plausible reason to claim ...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 9, column 16, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
... the next five years. To sum up, the authors assumption is logically flawed by above...
^^^^^^^
Line 9, column 299, Rule ID: IN_PAST[1]
Message: Did you mean: 'in the future'?
Suggestion: in the future
...nce an increased demand for heating oil in future.
^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
actually, also, but, finally, however, likewise, may, second, secondly, so, still, then, therefore, while, for example, to begin with, to sum up, what is more
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 26.0 19.6327345309 132% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 24.0 12.9520958084 185% => OK
Conjunction : 18.0 11.1786427146 161% => OK
Relative clauses : 19.0 13.6137724551 140% => OK
Pronoun: 41.0 28.8173652695 142% => Less pronouns wanted
Preposition: 53.0 55.5748502994 95% => OK
Nominalization: 17.0 16.3942115768 104% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2718.0 2260.96107784 120% => OK
No of words: 534.0 441.139720559 121% => OK
Chars per words: 5.08988764045 5.12650576532 99% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.80712388197 4.56307096286 105% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.56309240782 2.78398813304 92% => OK
Unique words: 262.0 204.123752495 128% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.49063670412 0.468620217663 105% => OK
syllable_count: 850.5 705.55239521 121% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 5.0 4.96107784431 101% => OK
Article: 9.0 8.76447105788 103% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 27.0 19.7664670659 137% => OK
Sentence length: 19.0 22.8473053892 83% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 34.4563101824 57.8364921388 60% => The essay contains lots of sentences with the similar length. More sentence varieties wanted.
Chars per sentence: 100.666666667 119.503703932 84% => OK
Words per sentence: 19.7777777778 23.324526521 85% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.85185185185 5.70786347227 103% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 9.0 5.25449101796 171% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 8.20758483034 122% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.88822355289 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 9.0 4.67664670659 192% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.343752318717 0.218282227539 157% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0836359160353 0.0743258471296 113% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0847363559603 0.0701772020484 121% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.164441443851 0.128457276422 128% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.11305811274 0.0628817314937 180% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.4 14.3799401198 86% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 52.19 48.3550499002 108% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.7 12.197005988 88% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.24 12.5979740519 97% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.19 8.32208582834 98% => OK
difficult_words: 122.0 98.500998004 124% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 10.5 12.3882235529 85% => OK
gunning_fog: 9.6 11.1389221557 86% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.