The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
The speaker here puts an argument that during summer season, as the population of Balmer Island increases, efforts shall be taken to reduce the accidents caused involving mopeds and pedestrians. Since, moped is popular form of transportation in Balmer Island, the speaker proposes to reduce the rental of mopeds and postulates that accidents will reduce by 50 percent as it did in Seaville last year. This theory is flawed and needs more evidence and studies to evaluate if reducing number of rented mopeds will reduce the accidents.
Firstly, amongst several assumptions, the speaker tries to establish that lowering the number of rented mopeds will reduce the accidents. In this case, it seems plausible that reducing the number of rented mopeds will reduce the number of mopeds being driven. As, there are less number of mopeds being driven, the accidents will tend to be less. However, this assumption doesn't account proportion of mopeds rented as against proportion of mopeds owned. If number of mopeds owned is higher that number of mopeds rented, it would not affect much. Hence, reducing the number of rented mopeds would render ineffective in such scenario.
Secondly, assuming that reducing the number of mopeds is plausible in the given situation, the speaker gives no data on whether reducing rented mopeds from 50 per day to 25 per day would effect in reduction the number of accidents by 50 percent. It is crucial to analyse how the reduction in number of rented mopeds will affect accidents. Without any support, the assumption can't be proved. Hence, statistical data and studies are needed to corroborate this assumption.
Thirdly, the speaker compares situation in Seaville with situation in Balmer Island. On contrary, the speaker doesn't provide any data on how Seaville and Balmer Islands are similar and similar policy would result in similar results. There is no room for verity in such an assumption. As, what worked in Seaville may not work in Balmer Island because of differences in terrain, conditions of road, differences in weather conditions, different in driving styles of people, differences in popularity of mopeds, etc. More data is needed to evaluate how reduction in number of rented mopeds affected number of accidents in Seaville and would similar causation can be posited for Balmer Island.
Here, we can conclude that more data and studies are needed to evaluate this case. This would include a survey to understand use of rented mopeds and owned mopeds. Statistical analysis is needed to determine by how much the moped rental shall be reduced. Also, if the policy of reducing number of rented moped succeeded in Seaville, it shall be studied independently how such policy affects Balmer Island.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
argument 1 -- not OK. here the topic only said:' the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. ....accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians. ', so we may argue like: maybe pedestrians caused the accidents not mopeds.
argument 2 -- not OK. how they reduce the accidents is not the flaw. we may say: maybe other reasons caused the decrease in Balmer Island.
argument 3 -- OK
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Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.0 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 21 15
No. of Words: 447 350
No. of Characters: 2240 1500
No. of Different Words: 178 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.598 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.011 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.527 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 207 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 114 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 73 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 46 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 21.286 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 12.691 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.476 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.384 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.575 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.189 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 372, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: doesn't
...nd to be less. However, this assumption doesnt account proportion of mopeds rented as ...
^^^^^^
Line 5, column 188, Rule ID: AFFECT_EFFECT[6]
Message: Did you mean 'affect'?
Suggestion: affect
...eds from 50 per day to 25 per day would effect in reduction the number of accidents by...
^^^^^^
Line 5, column 376, Rule ID: CANT[1]
Message: Did you mean 'can't' or 'cannot'?
Suggestion: can't; cannot
...ts. Without any support, the assumption cant be proved. Hence, statistical data and ...
^^^^
Line 7, column 111, Rule ID: EN_CONTRACTION_SPELLING
Message: Possible spelling mistake found
Suggestion: doesn't
...Balmer Island. On contrary, the speaker doesnt provide any data on how Seaville and Ba...
^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
also, first, firstly, hence, however, if, may, second, secondly, so, third, thirdly
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 20.0 19.6327345309 102% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 18.0 12.9520958084 139% => OK
Conjunction : 10.0 11.1786427146 89% => OK
Relative clauses : 7.0 13.6137724551 51% => More relative clauses wanted.
Pronoun: 19.0 28.8173652695 66% => OK
Preposition: 68.0 55.5748502994 122% => OK
Nominalization: 17.0 16.3942115768 104% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2304.0 2260.96107784 102% => OK
No of words: 445.0 441.139720559 101% => OK
Chars per words: 5.17752808989 5.12650576532 101% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.59293186426 4.56307096286 101% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.60105346084 2.78398813304 93% => OK
Unique words: 184.0 204.123752495 90% => More unique words wanted.
Unique words percentage: 0.413483146067 0.468620217663 88% => More unique words wanted or less content wanted.
syllable_count: 720.0 705.55239521 102% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 8.0 4.96107784431 161% => OK
Article: 8.0 8.76447105788 91% => OK
Subordination: 3.0 2.70958083832 111% => OK
Conjunction: 0.0 1.67365269461 0% => OK
Preposition: 3.0 4.22255489022 71% => OK
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 22.0 19.7664670659 111% => OK
Sentence length: 20.0 22.8473053892 88% => OK
Sentence length SD: 54.6595208828 57.8364921388 95% => OK
Chars per sentence: 104.727272727 119.503703932 88% => OK
Words per sentence: 20.2272727273 23.324526521 87% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.77272727273 5.70786347227 66% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 4.0 5.25449101796 76% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 6.0 8.20758483034 73% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 9.0 6.88822355289 131% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 7.0 4.67664670659 150% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.263915929904 0.218282227539 121% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0917533060183 0.0743258471296 123% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0732234641986 0.0701772020484 104% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.173139678431 0.128457276422 135% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0808315697659 0.0628817314937 129% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 13.1 14.3799401198 91% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 51.18 48.3550499002 106% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 11.1 12.197005988 91% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 12.76 12.5979740519 101% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.39 8.32208582834 101% => OK
difficult_words: 106.0 98.500998004 108% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 13.5 12.3882235529 109% => OK
gunning_fog: 10.0 11.1389221557 90% => OK
text_standard: 14.0 11.9071856287 118% => OK
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.