"Most homes in the northeastern United States, where winters are typically cold, have traditionally used oil as their major fuel for heating. Last heating season that region experienced 90 days with below-normal temperatures, and climate forecasters predict that this weather pattern will continue for several more years. Furthermore, many new homes are being built in the region in response to recent population growth. Because of these trends, we predict an increased demand for heating oil and recommend investment in Consolidated Industries, one of whose major business operations is the retail sale of home heating oil."
Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.
The author proposes investment in Consolidated Industries because the need for heating oil will be increased for next five years. He or she offers an interesting argument, but it suffers from some logical flaws and gaps in evidence. While the connections suggested are reasonable, there are many other possible scenarios that should discourage us from investing to the company.
To begin with, the author assumes that since the region has traditionally used oil for heating, this tradition will continue. However there is no reason to believe that the region will rely on oil for heating their house. As we all know, there are no traditions that last forever. People traditionally had used carriage when they moved in the past. People traditionally had used letters when they contacted with people in distance. However nowadays, people use cars, trains, airplanes or other transportations when they move. People send e-mails or phone calls when they communicate with someone. Likewise people in the northeastern United States may rely on other methods to heat their house during winter. Therefore we cannot conclude that there will be increase in demand for heating oil during next five years.
Let us assume, though, people in the northeastern United States actually continue use heating oil for next five years. However it is still hasty to claim the increment in need for oil. The author assumes that the region will experience cold winter because climate forecasters predict it. However climate forecasters are not always correct. Even though development of climate prediction technique had occurred, accurate climate prediction is still challenging. There are too many factors which affect climate and not easily detected. There are also many unknown factors which bring huge climate change. The region can experience warm winter because of unknown or undetected reasons. Therefore we cannot determine whether the winter will be cold in the region or not, and cannot surely claim that heating oil will be trendy.
Finally, the author's claim depend on the fact that many new homes are being built in the region. However more homes do not imply more denizens. The population of the region may not correspond to the recent population growth. People may prefer other areas than northeastern to live for several reasons: lack of proper educational institute in the northeastern, dirty environment in the region, etc. Therefore the homes that are constructing can be empty and the heating may not be necessary for next five years. In the conclusion, we cannot take for granted the area's population boost and the increase in need of the heating oil.
A close examination of all the assumptions made in the author's proposal reveals that the author does not have enough justification to invest the Consolidated Industries. Although the proposal certainly points out a possible course of action, the author's argument reflects unsupported claims without clear reasons or evidence.
Comments
e-rater score report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 3.5 out of 6
Category: Satisfactory Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 4 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 3 2
No. of Sentences: 28 15
No. of Words: 474 350
No. of Characters: 2455 1500
No. of Different Words: 224 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.666 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.179 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.65 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 192 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 132 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 84 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 56 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 16.929 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 7.382 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.607 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.283 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.475 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.175 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 3, column 128, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: However,
... heating, this tradition will continue. However there is no reason to believe that the ...
^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 240, Rule ID: THERE_S_MANY[4]
Message: Did you mean 'there are no traditions'?
Suggestion: there are no traditions
...or heating their house. As we all know, there is no traditions that last forever. People traditionally...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 433, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: However,
...they contacted with people in distance. However nowadays, people use cars, trains, airp...
^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 598, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Likewise,
...lls when they communicate with someone. Likewise people in the northeastern United State...
^^^^^^^^
Line 3, column 709, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Therefore,
...hods to heat their house during winter. Therefore we cannot conclude that there will be i...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 120, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: However,
...ue use heating oil for next five years. However it is still hasty to claim the incremen...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 289, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: However,
...because climate forecasters predict it. However climate forecasters are not always corr...
^^^^^^^
Line 5, column 683, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: Therefore,
...cause of unknown or undetected reasons. Therefore we cannot determine whether the winter ...
^^^^^^^^^
Line 7, column 98, Rule ID: SENT_START_CONJUNCTIVE_LINKING_ADVERB_COMMA[1]
Message: Did you forget a comma after a conjunctive/linking adverb?
Suggestion: However,
...ew homes are being built in the region. However more homes do not imply more denizens. ...
^^^^^^^
Line 7, column 562, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'areas'' or 'area's'?
Suggestion: areas'; area's
...clusion, we cannot take for granted the areas population boost and the increase in ne...
^^^^^
Line 9, column 56, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...tion of all the assumptions made in the authors proposal reveals that the author does n...
^^^^^^^
Line 9, column 247, Rule ID: POSSESIVE_APOSTROPHE[1]
Message: Possible typo: apostrophe is missing. Did you mean 'authors'' or 'author's'?
Suggestion: authors'; author's
...ts out a possible course of action, the authors argument reflects unsupported claims wi...
^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
actually, also, but, finally, however, if, likewise, may, so, still, therefore, while, to begin with
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 18.0 19.6327345309 92% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 21.0 12.9520958084 162% => OK
Conjunction : 12.0 11.1786427146 107% => OK
Relative clauses : 16.0 13.6137724551 118% => OK
Pronoun: 28.0 28.8173652695 97% => OK
Preposition: 44.0 55.5748502994 79% => OK
Nominalization: 19.0 16.3942115768 116% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2513.0 2260.96107784 111% => OK
No of words: 474.0 441.139720559 107% => OK
Chars per words: 5.30168776371 5.12650576532 103% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.66599839874 4.56307096286 102% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.70761255862 2.78398813304 97% => OK
Unique words: 232.0 204.123752495 114% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.489451476793 0.468620217663 104% => OK
syllable_count: 781.2 705.55239521 111% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.6 1.59920159681 100% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 3.0 4.96107784431 60% => OK
Article: 8.0 8.76447105788 91% => OK
Subordination: 4.0 2.70958083832 148% => OK
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 2.0 4.22255489022 47% => More preposition wanted as sentence beginning.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 29.0 19.7664670659 147% => OK
Sentence length: 16.0 22.8473053892 70% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 33.5626909107 57.8364921388 58% => The essay contains lots of sentences with the similar length. More sentence varieties wanted.
Chars per sentence: 86.6551724138 119.503703932 73% => OK
Words per sentence: 16.3448275862 23.324526521 70% => OK
Discourse Markers: 3.44827586207 5.70786347227 60% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 12.0 5.25449101796 228% => Less language errors wanted.
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 8.20758483034 122% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.88822355289 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 11.0 4.67664670659 235% => Less facts, knowledge or examples wanted.
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.296247373684 0.218282227539 136% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.079985040713 0.0743258471296 108% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0599837979895 0.0701772020484 85% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.144267692775 0.128457276422 112% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0946583215038 0.0628817314937 151% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 11.7 14.3799401198 81% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 55.24 48.3550499002 114% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 9.5 12.197005988 78% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.16 12.5979740519 104% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 7.99 8.32208582834 96% => OK
difficult_words: 107.0 98.500998004 109% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.0 12.3882235529 65% => OK
gunning_fog: 8.4 11.1389221557 75% => OK
text_standard: 8.0 11.9071856287 67% => The average readability is low. Need to imporve the language.
What are above readability scores?
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Rates: 50.0 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 3.0 Out of 6
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Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.