"Five years ago, at a time when we had difficulties in obtaining reliable supplies of high quality wool fabric, we discontinued production of our alpaca overcoat. Now that we have a new fabric supplier, we should resume production. This coat should sell very well: since we have not offered an alpaca overcoat for five years and since our major competitor no longer makes an alpaca overcoat, there will be pent-up customer demand. Also, since the price of most types of clothing has increased in each of the past five years, customers should be willing to pay significantly higher prices for alpaca overcoats than they did five years ago, and our company profits will increase."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the prediction and the argument on which it is based are reasonable. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the prediction.
According to above passage, the author insists that resume of production of alpaca overcoats with the support of several grounds. At first glance, these argument seems to be somewhat convincing, but further reflection reveals that the author failed to render strong proof for the argument. Accordingly, to make a proper judgment, we need to fling a question which can clearly elucidate validity of insistence.
To begin with, mentioning the expectation of sale of overcoats through past experience, the author presumes that customer’s demand is as high as past. However, this assumption may be fallacious. To support this assertion better, the author needs to answer how guest’s demand changes over time. If demand is not as high as before, the actual sale of overcoat is less than the expectation of sale, and this means invalidity of this opinion.
Secondly, lack of reliability of new fabric can adduce another doubt. There is no evidence that new fabric can be substitute of previous fabric. To assess this recommendation, the speaker should answer a question about usefulness of new fabric. Can new fabric satisfy patron’s exacting demands? Is the quality of new fabric better than past one? If the quality of new fabric is inferior than previous one or fails to gratify customer’s expectation, the argument will be invalid. If not, the author can anneal his contention through answer.
Furthermore, according to reference that, it is possible to guess that supposition that increase of production expense is lower than increase of price underlies expectation that the company get high profit. However, this supposition is far-fetched. For more explicit opinion, we needs to pose a important question: How does difference between production expense and price of product change. If fluctuation of expense are greater than that of price, profit from overcoat industry is lower than that they expect.
To sum up, the author may not necessarily be wrong to assert that if the company should resume production of alpaca overcoat. But, the argument has several basic weak points that cannot be overlooked easily and the conclusion is not enough strong to convince the readers. Therefore, the speaker’s assertion needs more scrutiny to undergird it. To bolster the argument, these investigation should encompass more conclusive above questions.
Comments
Essay evaluation report
Attribute Value Ideal
Final score: 4.5 out of 6
Category: Good Excellent
No. of Grammatical Errors: 0 2
No. of Spelling Errors: 0 2
No. of Sentences: 22 15
No. of Words: 371 350
No. of Characters: 1921 1500
No. of Different Words: 186 200
Fourth Root of Number of Words: 4.389 4.7
Average Word Length: 5.178 4.6
Word Length SD: 2.735 2.4
No. of Words greater than 5 chars: 163 100
No. of Words greater than 6 chars: 115 80
No. of Words greater than 7 chars: 79 40
No. of Words greater than 8 chars: 50 20
Use of Passive Voice (%): 0 0
Avg. Sentence Length: 16.864 21.0
Sentence Length SD: 7.226 7.5
Use of Discourse Markers (%): 0.636 0.12
Sentence-Text Coherence: 0.286 0.35
Sentence-Para Coherence: 0.538 0.50
Sentence-Sentence Coherence: 0.096 0.07
Number of Paragraphs: 5 5
Grammar and spelling errors:
Line 2, column 148, Rule ID: THIS_NNS[2]
Message: Did you mean 'this argument' or 'these arguments'?
Suggestion: this argument; these arguments
...rt of several grounds. At first glance, these argument seems to be somewhat convincing, but fu...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 4, column 72, Rule ID: PAST_EXPERIENCE_MEMORY[1]
Message: Use simply 'experience'.
Suggestion: experience
...xpectation of sale of overcoats through past experience, the author presumes that customer&apos...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Line 6, column 393, Rule ID: SUPERIOR_THAN[1]
Message: The adjective inferior is normally used with 'to'.
Suggestion: to
...f the quality of new fabric is inferior than previous one or fails to gratify custom...
^^^^
Line 8, column 280, Rule ID: NON3PRS_VERB[2]
Message: The pronoun 'we' must be used with a non-third-person form of a verb: 'need'
Suggestion: need
...-fetched. For more explicit opinion, we needs to pose a important question: How does ...
^^^^^
Line 8, column 294, Rule ID: EN_A_VS_AN
Message: Use 'an' instead of 'a' if the following word starts with a vowel sound, e.g. 'an article', 'an hour'
Suggestion: an
...more explicit opinion, we needs to pose a important question: How does difference...
^
Line 10, column 376, Rule ID: THIS_NNS[2]
Message: Did you mean 'this investigation' or 'these investigations'?
Suggestion: this investigation; these investigations
... undergird it. To bolster the argument, these investigation should encompass more conclusive above ...
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Transition Words or Phrases used:
accordingly, but, first, furthermore, however, if, look, may, second, secondly, so, therefore, to begin with, to sum up
Attributes: Values AverageValues Percentages(Values/AverageValues)% => Comments
Performance on Part of Speech:
To be verbs : 18.0 19.6327345309 92% => OK
Auxiliary verbs: 13.0 12.9520958084 100% => OK
Conjunction : 5.0 11.1786427146 45% => More conjunction wanted.
Relative clauses : 13.0 13.6137724551 95% => OK
Pronoun: 26.0 28.8173652695 90% => OK
Preposition: 55.0 55.5748502994 99% => OK
Nominalization: 32.0 16.3942115768 195% => OK
Performance on vocabulary words:
No of characters: 2011.0 2260.96107784 89% => OK
No of words: 371.0 441.139720559 84% => More content wanted.
Chars per words: 5.4204851752 5.12650576532 106% => OK
Fourth root words length: 4.38877662729 4.56307096286 96% => OK
Word Length SD: 2.97095937912 2.78398813304 107% => OK
Unique words: 197.0 204.123752495 97% => OK
Unique words percentage: 0.530997304582 0.468620217663 113% => OK
syllable_count: 619.2 705.55239521 88% => OK
avg_syllables_per_word: 1.7 1.59920159681 106% => OK
A sentence (or a clause, phrase) starts by:
Pronoun: 7.0 4.96107784431 141% => OK
Article: 10.0 8.76447105788 114% => OK
Subordination: 4.0 2.70958083832 148% => OK
Conjunction: 2.0 1.67365269461 119% => OK
Preposition: 9.0 4.22255489022 213% => Less preposition wanted as sentence beginnings.
Performance on sentences:
How many sentences: 22.0 19.7664670659 111% => OK
Sentence length: 16.0 22.8473053892 70% => The Avg. Sentence Length is relatively short.
Sentence length SD: 43.2904852791 57.8364921388 75% => OK
Chars per sentence: 91.4090909091 119.503703932 76% => OK
Words per sentence: 16.8636363636 23.324526521 72% => OK
Discourse Markers: 5.40909090909 5.70786347227 95% => OK
Paragraphs: 5.0 5.15768463074 97% => OK
Language errors: 6.0 5.25449101796 114% => OK
Sentences with positive sentiment : 10.0 8.20758483034 122% => OK
Sentences with negative sentiment : 8.0 6.88822355289 116% => OK
Sentences with neutral sentiment: 4.0 4.67664670659 86% => OK
What are sentences with positive/Negative/neutral sentiment?
Coherence and Cohesion:
Essay topic to essay body coherence: 0.214922071691 0.218282227539 98% => OK
Sentence topic coherence: 0.0629137643687 0.0743258471296 85% => OK
Sentence topic coherence SD: 0.0452323068552 0.0701772020484 64% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence: 0.103493071693 0.128457276422 81% => OK
Paragraph topic coherence SD: 0.0378405143999 0.0628817314937 60% => OK
Essay readability:
automated_readability_index: 12.5 14.3799401198 87% => Automated_readability_index is low.
flesch_reading_ease: 46.78 48.3550499002 97% => OK
smog_index: 3.1 7.1628742515 43% => Smog_index is low.
flesch_kincaid_grade: 10.7 12.197005988 88% => OK
coleman_liau_index: 13.86 12.5979740519 110% => OK
dale_chall_readability_score: 8.73 8.32208582834 105% => OK
difficult_words: 101.0 98.500998004 103% => OK
linsear_write_formula: 8.0 12.3882235529 65% => OK
gunning_fog: 8.4 11.1389221557 75% => OK
text_standard: 11.0 11.9071856287 92% => OK
What are above readability scores?
---------------------
Rates: 66.67 out of 100
Scores by essay e-grader: 4.0 Out of 6
---------------------
Note: the e-grader does NOT examine the meaning of words and ideas. VIP users will receive further evaluations by advanced module of e-grader and human graders.